Posted on 10/31/2010 8:45:01 PM PDT by Chet 99
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2010
Miller leads in Alaska
Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska. 37% of voters say they'll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski. Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one. Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.
How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? It's because 92% of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56% of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31% of them are going for Lisa Murkowski.
The high number of voters who like McAdams, dislike Miller, and are voting for Murkowski place the race in a whole different light than has been thought of the last few months. Murkowski's campaign, rather than propping herself up at the expense of Miller, may actually end up propping Miller up at the expense of McAdams. You never know how things would have unfolded in a two way race but Murkowski seems to be taking a lot more voters away from McAdams than she is from Miller.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
I’ve been going with Murkenschnitzel.
Because it makes me giggle. ;)
i could have sworn when i flipped across Chrissy Matthews, that he had miller below the democrat, the listed democrat. not Lisa M.
Good to see Marxowsky down in this poll. Given that she is a write-in, she is probably down somewhere between 10-15 (and possibly more).
I have a difficult time believing that 30% of anybody is going to write in a candidate. Intentions are one thing, actually doing it is another.
That said, it’s hilarious that Miller appears to actually benefit instead of being harmed.
I agree. People are going to vote for a preprinted candidate. Only the hardcore supporters are going to write in a name.
The Murk is toast.
How do you poll for a write in candidate? People may say they are going to vote for her when asked over the phone, but does that translate to actual write ins?
One of the best pieces of news I have heard all day. With all the shenanigans going on in Alaska it is a wonder Joe is ahead. Great news.
How about MorCowBellsky?
PPP is not the most reliable of pollsters, but it is definitely a cut or two above the local Anchorage polling houses that have had what’s her name ahead the last week or so.
- JP
How about MorCowBellsky?
If accurate, this is amazing and fantastic.
Do any freepers from Alaska have comments? I thought things were looking bad for Miller. Is this possibly a ploy to get anti-Miller voters to the polls?
I understand that is one reason Charlie Crist is losing his race.
Ba-dum-bum!
I’m still going to ignore this. I stand by what I said in the thread showing him losing. I’m not sure a write in race can be accurately polled.
My personal opinion is that it seems very unlikely he won’t win in a write in vote though.
Then there is another PPP poll just released showing Raese down. Possible since WV does traditionally lean Democrat despite its conservative leaning and it has a popular governor. But I think that race hinges on turnout. If the GOP turnout is huge....
“Merwkowskee!!!!”
Apparently that will count if written in (another departure from AK election convention.)
This is really good news...now if Raese holds up in WV, Buck in CO and Rossi in WA - then it’ll all be about surprises on election day!!
I think Lissa should have grown a longer beard. Maybe that would have helped her. She is going down big time.
I’m out in the bush (King Salmon/Bristol Bay/SW Alaska) and the few people I’ve talked to wish Lisa would have retired gracefully.
I think she’s toast.
I don’t trust polls but I’ll let myself believe this so I can sleep tonight. The murkowski/democratic coalition is slinging dog crap fast and furious at Joe.
Best news I've heard all day, if it holds true through Tuesday!
“but not as much as when Odonnell spanks that pet monkey Coons.”
Don’t let Gawker hear you say that...(although you could make a few thousand shells...)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.