Posted on 10/30/2010 12:43:03 PM PDT by kristinn
Sarah into Wilmington 3 PM Sunday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Christine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Post-election comparisons of results vs. polls is going to be very interesting this year, especially in places like DE.
Win or lose, I like this chick. She has had everything thrown at her and she hasn’t wilted. She has some big ones of whatever it is that ladies have in lieu of big brass ones.
“Chick” is a term of high endearment to me so nobody be offended.
“This appeal to non-traditional GOP voters by grassroots campaigners like Sarah Palin and Christine O’Donnell is being missed or ignored by the pundits IMO.”
That’s funny, because it is obvious to you and me. In DE, it is not just anti-Obama or strictly ideological. It is cultural. It is the populists versus the elites. A lot of union voters who would have been comfortable with Biden will reject the effete snob Coons and it won’t have anything to do with ideology or how the elections in 2008 or 2006 turned out.
This is a whole new ball game on multiple levels and the so-called experts are completely missing it.
To me, it is just a recapitulation of the dynamics that were at work in 1980 and were at least fermenting as early as 1976.
BTW, a liberal couple saw the CAGW's Chinese professor commercial. It got them thinking. At least nobody can call the commercial racist since the Chinese win. A brilliant commercial.
NOT OF DELAWARE!!!!! She is running not for President!!! I am talking about Delaware 18% which is 5-6 percent above national average to further my point!:)
Go Christine, love her!!! And if I am allowed to say this, she will be by far the best looking Senator in the history of the entire Congress.
Just don’t call her ma’am
(running and hiding)
Here’s a fun fact for you O’Donnell naysayers from a friend that works in the Dem party on the east coast.
The DNC internal polls conducted out of the New Jersey Dem party had this race 48%-44% (within 4%) on Thursday afternoon. Coons is losing independents and O’Donnell has gained significantly in Dem votes. She leads in Sussex and Kent counties and has shaved off 10% of Coons lead in New Castle County. Uncommitted’s are still very high.
The thinking is that if Dems maintain a turnout of under 35% and Republicans capture a 40-45% turnout among conservative independents and GOP voters, then she will likely win. Its a turnout battle.
That is why Obama is coming back in to Delaware. Remember these polls were taken several days ago, before several interviews and the Gawker story, but trending in O’Donnell’s favor.
Help with GOTV is what is needed. If you have time, volunteer the GOTV phone bank, instead of armchair criticism of a winnable race. This is all within the ‘margin of turnout.’
“just told his stoopid little story about trying to get the car out of a ditch “
Really? What a dork...teleprompter must be set to constant loop...
Obama is a resource for the dimoKKKRATS in some districts at least. Would they waste his time in a race in which they are way ahead when his time could be better spent in a close race where is appearance may actually help?
If Palin is coming to Delaware on Sunday the same question could be asked. Would the Republicans waste a resource such as Palin on a race that the dimoKKKRATS are way ahead. Would it not be better for Palin to visit a place where her presence might mean a Republican victory or two?
Why would either party waste their top draws on a race when one is way ahead of the other?
As much as I hope that CO could pull this out, the demogaphics in DE are going to be tough, and I agree with your assessment that this is like Custer’s last stand for obuMAO. Notice he’s not heading out to be with Scarry to watch the NV polls, et al...;)
Thanks for the good info. C'mon Delaware, turnout in droves!
“The thinking is that if Dems maintain a turnout of under 35% and Republicans capture a 40-45% turnout among conservative independents and GOP voters, then she will likely win. Its a turnout battle.”
Based on my observations of the race, I see that turnout differential not only as attainable, but as a minimum (based on the intensity of her support)
What you said about Phone banking is true, as well as financial support for those who are not called to phone bank.
Thanks for the anecdotal evidence. It certainly jibes with my observations of this race.
oops, that was “a biG LOL”
Looks to be late afternoon, early evening: 4:30 to 8:30.
“As much as I hope that CO could pull this out, the demogaphics in DE are going to be tough”
************************************************
Not as tough as you might suppose from listening to the armchair pundits:
I have been following this race closely since before the Primary, which is probably why I am more bullish on Christine O’Donnell’s prospects than many Freepers are. There are several reasons.
I. Turnout
As nearly everyone who has ever watched an offyear election closely has observed, this election will be determined by turnout, that is: Who shows up to vote? The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the GOP turnout advantage this year will likely be the largest in over a century, much larger than in 1994. Gallup estimates not only that the electorate will be 55-40% GOP and GOP leaning independents, but that the number of self identifying conservatives will be 48%, the highest it has ever been, since the stats have been maintained. In the wave year of 1994, for example, it was only 40% conservative.
II. Delaware
Turnout will only take you so far, though, says the skeptic. This is, after all, Delaware, among the most liberal states in the Union. Right? Well, not exactly right. Before 2000, Delaware had voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1952 (which meant twice for Eisenhower, twice for Nixon and twice for Reagan). In a word, Delaware follows the national trends very reliably. And we know where that trend is leading this year, don’t we?
Well, Delaware is just another Connecticut, isn’t it? No. Not really. The largest city in Delaware is Wilmington, with a population of 72,000. The next largest city is Dover with 35,000. It is really a conglomerate of small towns and rural areas. (Imagine, for example, how red Louisiana would be if you New Orleans were in an adjacent state). Connecticut, on the other hand has no less than seven cities larger than Wilmington. The two are not equivalent. Delaware is a small town, rural state. It should be fertile ground for Republicans. Why, then, have they had so little success in statewide,non-Presidential)elections of late? The answer is voter cynicism, directly traceable to:
III.The Delaware Establishment.
Both wings. Until this year, for decades, the GOP and Democrat Party in Delaware have had a symbiotic relationship, typified by the infamous “Swap” of 1992 in which then-Congressman Tom Carper (D) and then-Governor Mike Castle arranged to clear the field for each other and exchange seats. This year, a similar arrangement had been worked out. 71 year old Mike Castle would once again exchange seats with a Democrat (and would by prearrangement defeat the sacrificial lamb, Chris Coons)moving up to he Senate for four years until 2014 when(by yet another arrangement) he would step aside for Beau Biden in yet another iteration of “the Swap”. It was all set. Until Christine O’Donnell came along.
IV. The Candidates and the Electorate
I have waxed on, in numerous previous posts, about Christine O’Donnell’s skills and appeal as a candidate. That she is currently smoking the hapless Coons both in Facebook fans and in fund raising is well documented. The intensity of her support will mean that her supporters will turn out no matter what.
However, it did not occur to me until last night the profound, unprecedented (in modern times)effect that her candidacy is going to have on the COMPOSITION of the electorate. She mentioned on Hannity the number of people who will be voting this time who had never voted before (or hadn’t voted in decades) because, in their estimation (if not in actual fact), the system was rigged. In defeating Mike Castle, she struck a mortal blow at the Establishment that is going to change the character of the Delaware electorate in 2010. The composition of the Delaware electorate will more closely resemble 1984 and 1988 (rather than a typical off year election) when Delawareans were actually voting FOR something, giving Ronald Reagan 59% and his 1988 stand-in Bush 55% of its vote, (both exceeding the national percentage) rather than AGAINST something or, in many cases, not voting at all.
V. The Gawker Smear: Nikki Haley Redux?
I notice that the odious and vile smear of Christine O’Donnell, which has been roundly condemned even by NOW and Dave Weigel (and many others) is getting wide coverage in the press. I did a vanity post on Christine back on September 3, before her victory in the primary, decrying her vilification and comparing the smears against her (which dealt principally with her finances and allegations that she was paranoid) to those directed at Nikki Haley last June in South Carolina.
The Kneecapping of Christine O’Donnell (Nikki Haley Redux?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2582923/posts
Little did I suspect that the Democrats would try a tactic as stupid as this. (Their internal polls must show Coons in free fall for them to pull this stunt). In South Carolina, as soon as it became apparent that the culprit was an ally of the sitting Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer (a credible candidate with the endorsement of Mike Huckabee), Bauer’s support crumbled and he fell to 4th place on Election day, garnering only 12% of the vote to Haley’s 49%. In the case of South Carolina, there was some doubt as to who was responsible for the smear, since there were three other candidates in the race besides Haley. In this case, if voters want to punish someone for this nasty smear of a really nice person, they only have one option: Chris Coons. He is going to take it in the shorts.
VI. Enter Palin
Sarah Palin will, I understand, be in Wilmington for the Tea Party Express rally on Sunday. As I have said repeatedly, The Governor’s timing is impeccable. Her visit will undoubtedly energize the electorate which will show up to vote on Tuesday (and will give the lie to the notion that Palin is a drag on the GOP ticket anywhere this year)
http://texas4palin.blogspot.com/2010/10/gov-palin-in-new-jersey-october-31.html
Moreover, being a master political tactician, she is going to see this “Gawker smear” as an opportunity and use it. You can count on her to twist the rhetorical knife in the Democrats, the Establishment and the hapless Coons for this vile smear just as she did in the Nikki Haley episode. Maybe after all this is over with, Chris Coons can get together with Andre Bauer and commiserate about the experience of being Palin “road kill”.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2617089/posts
To me, it is just a recapitulation of the dynamics that were at work in 1980 and were at least fermenting as early as 1976.”
Part of it is the media's natural dishonesty. They lie so much that we always assume they are lying even when they tell the truth. The media narrative is the same win or lose.
The best example I recall is Jon Engler in 1994. I political junkied the whole year, subscribing to National Review, American Spectator, Conservative Chronicle, listening to Rush, talk radio..on and on, and I never heard of the guy until the media declared him a winner on election night.
The libs have had a lot of wins dating back to Bill Clinton. But the fist has formed and they aren't really reporting it.
I am not sure O’Donnell will pull it out. When I saw the black lady from Wilmington tell a news reporter that she will be voting for Christine O’Donnell I took notice. She mentioned that O’Donnell is like me. I may be the interview that got the Rats attention. Voters that do not have wealth and have a vote.
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