“As much as I hope that CO could pull this out, the demogaphics in DE are going to be tough”
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Not as tough as you might suppose from listening to the armchair pundits:
I have been following this race closely since before the Primary, which is probably why I am more bullish on Christine O’Donnell’s prospects than many Freepers are. There are several reasons.
I. Turnout
As nearly everyone who has ever watched an offyear election closely has observed, this election will be determined by turnout, that is: Who shows up to vote? The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the GOP turnout advantage this year will likely be the largest in over a century, much larger than in 1994. Gallup estimates not only that the electorate will be 55-40% GOP and GOP leaning independents, but that the number of self identifying conservatives will be 48%, the highest it has ever been, since the stats have been maintained. In the wave year of 1994, for example, it was only 40% conservative.
II. Delaware
Turnout will only take you so far, though, says the skeptic. This is, after all, Delaware, among the most liberal states in the Union. Right? Well, not exactly right. Before 2000, Delaware had voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1952 (which meant twice for Eisenhower, twice for Nixon and twice for Reagan). In a word, Delaware follows the national trends very reliably. And we know where that trend is leading this year, don’t we?
Well, Delaware is just another Connecticut, isn’t it? No. Not really. The largest city in Delaware is Wilmington, with a population of 72,000. The next largest city is Dover with 35,000. It is really a conglomerate of small towns and rural areas. (Imagine, for example, how red Louisiana would be if you New Orleans were in an adjacent state). Connecticut, on the other hand has no less than seven cities larger than Wilmington. The two are not equivalent. Delaware is a small town, rural state. It should be fertile ground for Republicans. Why, then, have they had so little success in statewide,non-Presidential)elections of late? The answer is voter cynicism, directly traceable to:
III.The Delaware Establishment.
Both wings. Until this year, for decades, the GOP and Democrat Party in Delaware have had a symbiotic relationship, typified by the infamous “Swap” of 1992 in which then-Congressman Tom Carper (D) and then-Governor Mike Castle arranged to clear the field for each other and exchange seats. This year, a similar arrangement had been worked out. 71 year old Mike Castle would once again exchange seats with a Democrat (and would by prearrangement defeat the sacrificial lamb, Chris Coons)moving up to he Senate for four years until 2014 when(by yet another arrangement) he would step aside for Beau Biden in yet another iteration of “the Swap”. It was all set. Until Christine O’Donnell came along.
IV. The Candidates and the Electorate
I have waxed on, in numerous previous posts, about Christine O’Donnell’s skills and appeal as a candidate. That she is currently smoking the hapless Coons both in Facebook fans and in fund raising is well documented. The intensity of her support will mean that her supporters will turn out no matter what.
However, it did not occur to me until last night the profound, unprecedented (in modern times)effect that her candidacy is going to have on the COMPOSITION of the electorate. She mentioned on Hannity the number of people who will be voting this time who had never voted before (or hadn’t voted in decades) because, in their estimation (if not in actual fact), the system was rigged. In defeating Mike Castle, she struck a mortal blow at the Establishment that is going to change the character of the Delaware electorate in 2010. The composition of the Delaware electorate will more closely resemble 1984 and 1988 (rather than a typical off year election) when Delawareans were actually voting FOR something, giving Ronald Reagan 59% and his 1988 stand-in Bush 55% of its vote, (both exceeding the national percentage) rather than AGAINST something or, in many cases, not voting at all.
V. The Gawker Smear: Nikki Haley Redux?
I notice that the odious and vile smear of Christine O’Donnell, which has been roundly condemned even by NOW and Dave Weigel (and many others) is getting wide coverage in the press. I did a vanity post on Christine back on September 3, before her victory in the primary, decrying her vilification and comparing the smears against her (which dealt principally with her finances and allegations that she was paranoid) to those directed at Nikki Haley last June in South Carolina.
The Kneecapping of Christine O’Donnell (Nikki Haley Redux?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2582923/posts
Little did I suspect that the Democrats would try a tactic as stupid as this. (Their internal polls must show Coons in free fall for them to pull this stunt). In South Carolina, as soon as it became apparent that the culprit was an ally of the sitting Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer (a credible candidate with the endorsement of Mike Huckabee), Bauer’s support crumbled and he fell to 4th place on Election day, garnering only 12% of the vote to Haley’s 49%. In the case of South Carolina, there was some doubt as to who was responsible for the smear, since there were three other candidates in the race besides Haley. In this case, if voters want to punish someone for this nasty smear of a really nice person, they only have one option: Chris Coons. He is going to take it in the shorts.
VI. Enter Palin
Sarah Palin will, I understand, be in Wilmington for the Tea Party Express rally on Sunday. As I have said repeatedly, The Governor’s timing is impeccable. Her visit will undoubtedly energize the electorate which will show up to vote on Tuesday (and will give the lie to the notion that Palin is a drag on the GOP ticket anywhere this year)
http://texas4palin.blogspot.com/2010/10/gov-palin-in-new-jersey-october-31.html
Moreover, being a master political tactician, she is going to see this “Gawker smear” as an opportunity and use it. You can count on her to twist the rhetorical knife in the Democrats, the Establishment and the hapless Coons for this vile smear just as she did in the Nikki Haley episode. Maybe after all this is over with, Chris Coons can get together with Andre Bauer and commiserate about the experience of being Palin “road kill”.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2617089/posts
Man would I like to be there. It could be Obamas Waterloo. If she wins Obama is a dead duck.
Thanks for this insightful post. We have family near Dover so this race is of great interest to me. Christine winning would send shockwaves across the country and hopefully supress dem turnout on the west coast helping out Rossi, Fiorina and Whitman.
“I have been following this race closely since before the Primary, which is probably why I am more bullish on Christine O’Donnell’s prospects than many Freepers are. There are several reasons.”
Great analysis Brices!
The post regarding Palin has been updated. She will not be showing up tomorrow in DE.
BC,
Just sent your analysis to two top Washington editors. You, my friend, are a genius.
Carter
I think this smear is going to finish Coons. I am sure he will lose a lot of women voters over it. Coons team is panicking and denouncing it. Uh oh.