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This week I'm posting the latest "Expert's Page" from KHR. This page is updated every Saturday morning and you can always see the ratings changes for the previous week by our six "Experts". And this was a spectacularly bad week for the Dems.

District Incumbent Party Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Open D Likely R 2.0 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Toss-Up AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up CA 11
CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up CA 20
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R CO 4
CO 7 Ed Perlmulter Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D CO 7
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D CT 5
DE AL Open R Open R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 8
FL 12 Open R Open R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Toss-Up Likely D Mod D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Likely R FL 25
GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Leans D GA 2
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up 0.0 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Toss-Up Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Likely D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Toss-Up Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Open R Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Toss-Up Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 14
IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Likely D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 17
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D IN 2
IN 8 Open D Open D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Leans R Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D Open D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 10 Open D Open D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Michele Bachmann Incumbent R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Leans R NC 8
NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up NC 11
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ND AL
NE 2 Lee Terry Incumbent R Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Toss-Up Leans D NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D NY 25
NY 29 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Jean Schmidt Incumbent R Safe R 2.8 Safe R Safe R Mod R Safe R Safe R Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Toss-Up PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 6 Jim Gerlach Incumbent R Likely R 2.0 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Leans R PA 6
PA 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Mod R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D TN 4
TN 6 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Open D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Likely R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D WA 2
WA 3 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Likely R 1.8 Leans R Leans R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R WA 8
WI 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Likely D Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WI 8
WV 1 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Leans D WV 3
District Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up -0.032 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 2-Oct-10 -0.153 -0.286 0.296 -0.143 -0.112 0.306 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:15 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...
This weeks score by our "Experts": GOP 58 and Dems 3


2 posted on 10/02/2010 8:43:53 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Ping for Adam Kinzinger IL-11. Dump Debbie! The commercials she has running on tv are enough reason to get rid of her!
lol

http://www.electadam.com/


4 posted on 10/02/2010 8:48:19 AM PDT by Fu-fu2
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for all your hard work on this.

Most left-leaning experts like Cook and Sabato are likely adjusting late from D to R many races to maintain credibility. Still, turnout is the important factor. Republicans need to come out as if their country was in peril.


9 posted on 10/02/2010 9:14:55 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Washington, we Texans want a divorce!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Excellent post.


10 posted on 10/02/2010 9:35:45 AM PDT by Gator113 (Beauty will devour the Beast in 2012. Kill "Obamamosque"@ Ground Zero)
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To: InterceptPoint

… thank you very much for your tremendous efforts.

I, like many others, wonder why we see Republican up 10 points in the polls, yet you consistently call them tossup races?

For example Dan Webster in Florida?

By the way, your panel of experts until quite recently for predicting a gain of 30 seats. I, until quite recently have been predicting a gain of 100 seats.

Unless we see some truly crazy October surprise, I’m now predicting a gain of 120 seats.


13 posted on 10/02/2010 9:46:27 AM PDT by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Very good post! You’re spending a lot of time on this and I appreciate it.

I’m concerned about RAT voter fraud. Remember that our margin of victory must be twice as big as their fraud. Otherwise we’ll be into counts and recounts till next spring.


14 posted on 10/02/2010 10:05:41 AM PDT by upchuck (When excerpting please use the entire 300 words we are allowed. No more one or two sentence posts!)
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To: InterceptPoint; All
Intercept...

I know it is not your analysis....

But, watch Michigan 15, Dr Rob Steele vs. John Dingell.

This will be a key win if we kick the oldest Congressman out along, with Barney Frank and Sanchez in CA. Not to mention if Alan West wins in FLA.....

20 posted on 10/02/2010 10:52:41 AM PDT by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: LA Woman3; MEG33; deport

Look at Texas 17 in the table in post 1! This morning Flores’ people were canvassing my neighborhood. They don’t have Chet’s money but they are working hard to get their message out. Did all of you notice Chet’s “scare the vets” and “I stood up to Pelosi” campaigns are ramping up? What a liar!


21 posted on 10/02/2010 11:14:42 AM PDT by McLynnan
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To: InterceptPoint
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 25
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30
21-Aug-10 204 209.86 216 4.47% 30
28-Aug-10 205 210.91 217 7.03% 31
04-Sep-10 206 211.88 218 10.45% 32
11-Sep-10 208 213.67 220 20.31% 34
18-Sep-10 208 214.1 220 23.14% 35
25-Sep-10 209 214.72 221 27.54% 35
02-Oct-10 210 216.44 222 41.34% 37

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 71% of the 100 races being tracked. 72 polls are being used out of 84 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 86%. Poll coverage is down slightly from last week.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
31-Jul-10 207 211.93 217 8.43% 32
07-Aug-10 205 210.66 216 4.51% 31
14-Aug-10 205 210.56 216 4.44% 31
21-Aug-10 208 212.88 218 11.83% 33
28-Aug-10 211 216.78 220 42.58% 37
04-Sep-10 213 217.53 222 50.40% 38
11-Sep-10 214 219.05 224 66.39% 40
18-Sep-10 214 218.54 223 62.30% 39
25-Sep-10 214 218.46 223 61.17% 39
02-Oct-10 217 220.83 225 83.86% 41

The House is safely going to turn over. Now it's just a matter of watching the win grow in the remaining weeks.

And in the Senate...

After two weeks of plateau, there is some positive movement.

Linda McMahon of Connecticut closes the gap with Richard Blumenthal as Blumenthal supporters move to McMahon, putting this race back within the margin of error. West Virginia is surging wildly away from Governor Manchin and towards Republican John Raese as he regains the lead by 2%. Republicans also gained in Colorado as Ken Buck takes 2% away from Michael Bennet, moving Colorado safely outside the margin of error. Also moving safely beyond the margin of error is Wisconsin, where Ron Johnson pulls away from Russ Feingold. And finally, Dino Rossi again swung ahead of Patty Murray to retake a slight lead in Washington state.

For the Democrats, Sharron Angle lost 1% against Harry Reid, breaking the tie in Nevada.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7
21-Aug-10 47 48.69 50 3.05% 7
28-Aug-10 47 48.86 50 5.88% 7
04-Sep-10 48 49.21 51 14.19% 8
11-Sep-10 49 50.08 52 37.67% 9
18-Sep-10 48 48.95 50 3.67% 7
25-Sep-10 47 48.35 49 0.30% 7
02-Oct-10 48 49.7 51 21.47% 8

This week, the Republicans put the Senate back in play, regaining one expected seat.

-PJ

26 posted on 10/02/2010 12:18:34 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint
This table is a breakout of each expert's trend of assessments.

Week Sabato CQP EP.Com Cook Rothenberg RCP
08-May-10 205.13 202.9 206.85 206.76 203.1 213.38
19-Jun-10 207.51 205.63 210.49 207.64 203.35 216.33
10-Jul-10 207.87 205.64 209.4 208.16 203.99 214.37
17-Jul-10 207.4 205.12 210.12 207.63 203.51 213.9
24-Jul-10 207.28 205.26 210.33 208.03 207.38 213.83
31-Jul-10 206.71 204.67 211.75 208.78 207.22 215.1
07-Aug-10 206.75 204.65 212 208.77 207.19 215.35
14-Aug-10 206.78 204.81 212.86 208.97 207.23 215.49
21-Aug-10 206.7 204.78 213.14 210.76 207.19 216.42
28-Aug-10 206.75 208.66 214.13 210.74 207.62 217.58
04-Sep-10 210.14 208.68 215.4 211.8 207.53 218.1
11-Sep-10 211.15 209.09 216.53 214.14 210.88 220.32
18-Sep-10 211.34 209.23 217.05 214.66 211.98 220.5
25-Sep-10 211.3 212.2 216.89 215.17 212.56 220.21
02-Oct-10 213.74 212.48 219.97 215.52 215.01 221.51

This week's moves:

-PJ

31 posted on 10/02/2010 1:09:14 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint
Great job, as always..Kudos, and thanks..

Just wondering..any way you can go back to 1994 and tell us what the self proclaimed "long time experts" ( i.e. Cook, Rothenberh, EP, CQ..predicted before the GOP landslide.....I wonder how far below they were..

35 posted on 10/02/2010 2:03:13 PM PDT by ken5050 (The meek shall inherit the earth, but no way Kendrick Meek beats Marco Rubio)
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To: InterceptPoint

IL-8. IL-8. IL-8.

This is potentially a very interesting race and for some reason.....NO POLLING. Interesting though that Rothenberg has it as a toss-up.

This is the seat Phil Crane held forever until Melissa Bean wone it 3 elections ago. THIS IS GOP TERRITORY. Not as much as it used to be....but in this environment I’d be surprised if Bean’s opponent, Joe Walsh (no, not THAT Joe Walsh) didn’t have a great shot at beating her.

I’d sure love to see something about this race.

Hank


45 posted on 10/02/2010 3:30:49 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Where's the diversity on MSNBC? Olbermann, Schultz, Matthews, Maddow.....all white males!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Actually, looknig at the Rothenberg website, I think you have a mistake on IL-8. He doesn’t have it rated at all, which I presume means you would list him as “safe-D” or “likely -D.”

Hank


46 posted on 10/02/2010 3:39:42 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Where's the diversity on MSNBC? Olbermann, Schultz, Matthews, Maddow.....all white males!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for your hard work on this, it’s appreciated.


47 posted on 10/02/2010 3:40:57 PM PDT by jazusamo (His [Obama's] political base---the young, the left and the thoughtless: Thomas Sowell)
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To: InterceptPoint

I just walked CA-18 and this is no “Leans Dem” or “Safe Dem” district! I don’t care who the experts are - This district is up for grabs!

I walked a precinct that went heavy dem in ‘08 and I can safely say it ain’t goin’ that heavy in ‘10. “RubberStamp” Cardoza is in for a fight! He may even have to come back to the district and campaign.


52 posted on 10/02/2010 5:44:45 PM PDT by REDWOOD99
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To: InterceptPoint; Liz; sickoflibs

ping


56 posted on 10/02/2010 8:04:56 PM PDT by GOPJ (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2589165/posts)
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To: InterceptPoint; abcraghead; aimhigh; Archie Bunker on steroids; bicycle thug; blackie; ...
Did you see that Shcrader is losing strength?

OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OR 5

58 posted on 10/02/2010 9:34:55 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: InterceptPoint

That is a really great site!!!! Thanks for posting it!


60 posted on 10/02/2010 10:13:37 PM PDT by Danae (Analnathrach, orth' bhais's bethad, do che'l de'nmha.)
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