Posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
The Dems had a decent week last week but the GOP trend picked up steam this week as our "Experts" re-evaluated the races and made 61 ratings changes to our list of 100 House Seats in play. That's the largest update we've seen this election season. And it's more bad news for the Dems.
You may have noticed that we are now at 100 seats. You can credit CA-20 for sneaking on to our list as a result of the ratings change by Charlie Cook from Likely D to Leans D. That adds the necessary extra steam to the Toss-Up rating of this race by RCP and that was enough to qualify for the Master List.
So our list now stands at 100 races in play: 88 Dems and 12 not very vulnerable Republcans.
We've also added a couple of races to our Tier 2 list of districts that are starting to look like they are in play. This weeks additions: MS-04 and OH-06.
Just a reminder for the Twitter fans: We are now posting on a regular basis. If you are a Twitter user give us a look. It's the fastest way to see the latest polls, videos and changes to KeyHouseRaces.com data.
We are continuously updating the Pickup Projections from a number of sources. These are always posted on KHR but here is the latest list:
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.032 from last weeks -.113. Inching ever closer to positive territory. It's so nice to make predictions that actually come true.
Got it! That is great news!!
Let’s hope they know what they’re talking about. Back to THE game!
Chet’s ads make me sick.
GO FLORES!
Finally, with a month to go, we’re in the drivers seat ready to grab those keys back from Obama. Thanks for the update.
IL-8. IL-8. IL-8.
This is potentially a very interesting race and for some reason.....NO POLLING. Interesting though that Rothenberg has it as a toss-up.
This is the seat Phil Crane held forever until Melissa Bean wone it 3 elections ago. THIS IS GOP TERRITORY. Not as much as it used to be....but in this environment I’d be surprised if Bean’s opponent, Joe Walsh (no, not THAT Joe Walsh) didn’t have a great shot at beating her.
I’d sure love to see something about this race.
Hank
Actually, looknig at the Rothenberg website, I think you have a mistake on IL-8. He doesn’t have it rated at all, which I presume means you would list him as “safe-D” or “likely -D.”
Hank
Thanks for your hard work on this, it’s appreciated.
“wouldn’t we still need a veto proof Senate also....”
Good point, and that is a tougher target.
Should still have targets tho. Maybe next cycle?
That was an error on the Rothenberg IL-08 rating and I’ve updated the Experts Page on KHR. It is now rated Safe D. Thanks for the heads up. Errors do sneak in occasionally. I did a full manual audit of the full list last week but somehow I missed this one.
Veto proof Senate will be tough without a miracle in 2012. But if things work out right they should take a majority. If the trends hold and Republicans gain 5-8 seats this year then control is very possible in ‘12. I hope they make as strong an effort as possible to knock out both Nelsons, Webb, Tester, McCaskill and a few others. Many of them ran as “moderates” in ‘06 and of course convinced plenty of mushy headed voters to believe their lies. Maybe 2012 can be another 1980.
As far as the House goes this year, I am not convinced Repubs will take control. Now that the expectations have been set so high it will be a disaster if they fall short. I fear the Dems will be emboldened. Though if the economy continues to falter and 0bama does not regain his popularity you could have more Dems panicking and jumping ship prior to 2012.
Oh me too. I don’t recall him ever going quite this negative before. It’s a sure sign he’s scared. I especially hate hearing him say “because SOOOOOOOOOOO much is at stake.” Well, Chet, yes you are right about that and that’s why we are going to vote you right out of office.
I just walked CA-18 and this is no “Leans Dem” or “Safe Dem” district! I don’t care who the experts are - This district is up for grabs!
I walked a precinct that went heavy dem in ‘08 and I can safely say it ain’t goin’ that heavy in ‘10. “RubberStamp” Cardoza is in for a fight! He may even have to come back to the district and campaign.
Charlotte has got a chance in this one!! Look @ MS-02 also.
“Now that the expectations have been set so high it will be a disaster if they fall short. I fear the Dems will be emboldened.”
Yes, the Dems could put fear into their base to get them out, but, I think there will be more apathy, esp with the younger crowd. Huckster had a segment on his show, interviewed some college kids, and less than half said they were going to vote. ( seemed those planning to vote were conservatives..MHO)
I am even more energized today than I was yesterday. went to a rally for our candidate in NY20. (Chris Gibson) We were doing a sign-wave along the highway while waiting for him. We got scores of honks & waves, but only one ‘boo’
The energy can be catching.
Lets take a Hammer to the dreams of those Dems on the KHR list.
When You’re Holding a Hammer (Everything Looks Like a Nail)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfH46DTAkxo
Thanks for the ping!
ping
What has Dick Morris been smoking? He is really optimistic!
OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
Orly!!!!
Well now, that IS interesting!
Sheesh, the GOP in LA is saying that Los Angeles is in play. If it can happen THERE, it can happen here too!
That is a really great site!!!! Thanks for posting it!
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