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Key House Races 2 October Update - Huge GOP Ratings Gains
KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

The Dems had a decent week last week but the GOP trend picked up steam this week as our "Experts" re-evaluated the races and made 61 ratings changes to our list of 100 House Seats in play. That's the largest update we've seen this election season. And it's more bad news for the Dems.

This weeks score by our "Experts": GOP 58 and Dems 3

You may have noticed that we are now at 100  seats. You can credit CA-20 for sneaking on to our list as a result of the ratings change by Charlie Cook from Likely D to Leans D. That adds the necessary extra steam to the Toss-Up rating of this race by RCP and that was enough to qualify for the Master List.

So our list now stands at 100 races in play: 88 Dems and 12 not very vulnerable Republcans.

We've also added a couple of races to  our Tier 2 list of districts that are starting to look like they are in play. This weeks additions: MS-04 and OH-06.

Just a reminder for the Twitter fans: We are now posting on a regular basis. If you are a Twitter user give us a look. It's the fastest way to  see the latest polls, videos and changes to KeyHouseRaces.com data.

KeyHouseRaces.com on Twitter

We are continuously updating the Pickup Projections from a number of sources. These are always posted on KHR but here is the latest list:

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 61 updates this week to the 100 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 58 were favorable to the Republicans
  • 3 were favorable to the Democrats -

Those changes moved our index to -.032 from last weeks -.113. Inching ever closer to positive territory. It's so nice to make predictions that actually come true.
 


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: election2010; elections; khr
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This week I'm posting the latest "Expert's Page" from KHR. This page is updated every Saturday morning and you can always see the ratings changes for the previous week by our six "Experts". And this was a spectacularly bad week for the Dems.

District Incumbent Party Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Open D Likely R 2.0 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Toss-Up AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up CA 11
CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Safe D Safe D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up CA 20
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R CO 4
CO 7 Ed Perlmulter Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D CO 7
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D CT 5
DE AL Open R Open R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 8
FL 12 Open R Open R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Toss-Up Likely D Mod D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Likely R FL 25
GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Leans D GA 2
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up 0.0 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Toss-Up Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Likely D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Toss-Up Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Open R Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Toss-Up Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 14
IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Likely D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 17
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D IN 2
IN 8 Open D Open D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Leans R Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D Open D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 10 Open D Open D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Michele Bachmann Incumbent R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Leans R NC 8
NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up NC 11
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ND AL
NE 2 Lee Terry Incumbent R Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Toss-Up Leans D NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D NY 25
NY 29 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Jean Schmidt Incumbent R Safe R 2.8 Safe R Safe R Mod R Safe R Safe R Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Toss-Up PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 6 Jim Gerlach Incumbent R Likely R 2.0 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Leans R PA 6
PA 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Mod R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D TN 4
TN 6 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Open D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Likely R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D WA 2
WA 3 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Likely R 1.8 Leans R Leans R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R WA 8
WI 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Likely D Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WI 8
WV 1 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Safe D Leans D WV 3
District Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up -0.032 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 2-Oct-10 -0.153 -0.286 0.296 -0.143 -0.112 0.306 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:15 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...
This weeks score by our "Experts": GOP 58 and Dems 3


2 posted on 10/02/2010 8:43:53 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

I can see big gains for the GOP in the House at this point.

Maybe the Dick Morris number is closer to the final result.

I think the wave this year is bigger than 1994 when the gain was just over 50 seats.


3 posted on 10/02/2010 8:48:05 AM PDT by Nextrush (Slocialist Republicans and Socialist Democrats need to go)
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To: InterceptPoint

Ping for Adam Kinzinger IL-11. Dump Debbie! The commercials she has running on tv are enough reason to get rid of her!
lol

http://www.electadam.com/


4 posted on 10/02/2010 8:48:19 AM PDT by Fu-fu2
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To: Fu-fu2

Halvorson’s toast ... thank God!


5 posted on 10/02/2010 8:51:11 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: Nextrush
I think the wave this year is bigger than 1994 when the gain was just over 50 seats.

If you compare the generic Congressional ballot from 1994 where Republican's regained the House & Senate to the generic Congressional ballot conducted recently, Republicans are doing considerably better than they did in 1994 at this same point in time before the elections.

I'd guess that means the chances of gaining more than 50 seats in the House of Representatives is very high and the chances of regaining the Senate ... gaining control of 52-53 seats is also very high.

Effectively, the Obama Socialist Agenda will be shut down come Nov. 3rd as a result.

6 posted on 10/02/2010 8:56:01 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: usconservative
Effectively, the Obama Socialist Agenda will be shut down come Nov. 3rd as a result.

Fingers crossed. Powder dry.

7 posted on 10/02/2010 9:00:15 AM PDT by houeto (Get drinking water from your ditch - http://www.junglebucket.com/)
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To: usconservative
Effectively, the Obama Socialist Agenda will be shut down come Nov. 3rd as a result. - Mmmm...not so sure that the GOP has been purged enough yet to be sure of that result.
8 posted on 10/02/2010 9:00:36 AM PDT by Free_at_last_-2001 (A country can survive its fools, but it cannot survive treason from within.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for all your hard work on this.

Most left-leaning experts like Cook and Sabato are likely adjusting late from D to R many races to maintain credibility. Still, turnout is the important factor. Republicans need to come out as if their country was in peril.


9 posted on 10/02/2010 9:14:55 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Washington, we Texans want a divorce!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Excellent post.


10 posted on 10/02/2010 9:35:45 AM PDT by Gator113 (Beauty will devour the Beast in 2012. Kill "Obamamosque"@ Ground Zero)
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To: InterceptPoint

BTTT


11 posted on 10/02/2010 9:42:20 AM PDT by E.G.C.
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To: usconservative
gaining control of 52-53 seats is also very high.

If this is true, we should sacrifice McCain by making him lose.

12 posted on 10/02/2010 9:45:12 AM PDT by JimWayne
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To: InterceptPoint

… thank you very much for your tremendous efforts.

I, like many others, wonder why we see Republican up 10 points in the polls, yet you consistently call them tossup races?

For example Dan Webster in Florida?

By the way, your panel of experts until quite recently for predicting a gain of 30 seats. I, until quite recently have been predicting a gain of 100 seats.

Unless we see some truly crazy October surprise, I’m now predicting a gain of 120 seats.


13 posted on 10/02/2010 9:46:27 AM PDT by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Very good post! You’re spending a lot of time on this and I appreciate it.

I’m concerned about RAT voter fraud. Remember that our margin of victory must be twice as big as their fraud. Otherwise we’ll be into counts and recounts till next spring.


14 posted on 10/02/2010 10:05:41 AM PDT by upchuck (When excerpting please use the entire 300 words we are allowed. No more one or two sentence posts!)
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009
120 Seats!!!! Now that would be something.

Don't be too hard on our experts. They read the polls, they ponder, they think about it, they see what their competitors are doing and then, reluctantly, they update their ratings. And they have picked up the pace in the last few weeks.

My advice: watch the trends. The Experts will try very hard to be the expert we we all remember as being The One Who Got It Right (with apologies to that other "One"). So as we get closer and closer to November 2 the "Experts" are going to finally tell us what they really think. STAY TUNED AND ORDER YOUR POPCORN IN ADVANCE - THERE MAY BE A SHORTAGE.

15 posted on 10/02/2010 10:16:16 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint
thanks, for the ping.


It has really, "Hit the Fan"

16 posted on 10/02/2010 10:34:33 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Imam Zer0: DeathCARE, Is my only Plan...So just die (quicky), please & save $$$$ :^)
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009
Unless we see some truly crazy October surprise,
I’m now predicting a gain of 120 seats.
W0W!
w/ a gain like that, many rats, may "temper" their
voting habits during Nazi Pelosi 's upcoming Lame-Duck
session of HOR...this may end her rule...very quickly.

17 posted on 10/02/2010 10:45:27 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Imam Zer0: DeathCARE, Is my only Plan...So just die (quicky), please & save $$$$ :^)
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To: InterceptPoint

Excellent update. Thanks for the ping, I don’t always post but I check all of your updates. You’re doing yeoman’s work and it’s much appreciated.


18 posted on 10/02/2010 10:45:31 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: InterceptPoint
STAY TUNED AND ORDER YOUR POPCORN IN ADVANCE -
THERE MAY BE A SHORTAGE.


19 posted on 10/02/2010 10:49:01 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (Imam Zer0: DeathCARE, Is my only Plan...So just die (quicky), please & save $$$$ :^)
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To: InterceptPoint; All
Intercept...

I know it is not your analysis....

But, watch Michigan 15, Dr Rob Steele vs. John Dingell.

This will be a key win if we kick the oldest Congressman out along, with Barney Frank and Sanchez in CA. Not to mention if Alan West wins in FLA.....

20 posted on 10/02/2010 10:52:41 AM PDT by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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