Posted on 10/02/2010 8:40:11 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
The Dems had a decent week last week but the GOP trend picked up steam this week as our "Experts" re-evaluated the races and made 61 ratings changes to our list of 100 House Seats in play. That's the largest update we've seen this election season. And it's more bad news for the Dems.
You may have noticed that we are now at 100 seats. You can credit CA-20 for sneaking on to our list as a result of the ratings change by Charlie Cook from Likely D to Leans D. That adds the necessary extra steam to the Toss-Up rating of this race by RCP and that was enough to qualify for the Master List.
So our list now stands at 100 races in play: 88 Dems and 12 not very vulnerable Republcans.
We've also added a couple of races to our Tier 2 list of districts that are starting to look like they are in play. This weeks additions: MS-04 and OH-06.
Just a reminder for the Twitter fans: We are now posting on a regular basis. If you are a Twitter user give us a look. It's the fastest way to see the latest polls, videos and changes to KeyHouseRaces.com data.
We are continuously updating the Pickup Projections from a number of sources. These are always posted on KHR but here is the latest list:
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.032 from last weeks -.113. Inching ever closer to positive territory. It's so nice to make predictions that actually come true.
District | Incumbent | Party | Average | Avg. | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||
AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | AL | 2 |
AR | 1 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | AR | 1 |
AR | 2 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.0 | Leans R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | AR | 2 |
AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Toss-Up | AZ | 1 |
AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | AZ | 5 |
AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 |
CA | 3 | Dan Lungren | Incumbent R | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | CA | 3 |
CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | CA | 11 |
CA | 20 | Jim Costa | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.2 | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Leans D | Safe D | Toss-Up | CA | 20 |
CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | CA | 47 |
CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | CO | 3 |
CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | CO | 4 |
CO | 7 | Ed Perlmulter | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.3 | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | CO | 7 |
CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.5 | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | CT | 4 |
CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | CT | 5 |
DE | AL | Open R | Open R | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | DE | AL |
FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | FL | 2 |
FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | FL | 8 |
FL | 12 | Open R | Open R | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | FL | 12 |
FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Toss-Up | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | FL | 22 |
FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | FL | 24 |
FL | 25 | Open R | Open R | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | Likely R | FL | 25 |
GA | 2 | Sanford Bishop | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans D | GA | 2 |
GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | GA | 8 |
HI | 1 | Charles Djou | Incumbent R | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | HI | 1 |
IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans D | IA | 3 |
ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Likely D | ID | 1 |
IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Toss-Up | Leans D | IL | 8 |
IL | 10 | Open R | Open R | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IL | 10 |
IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.0 | Toss-Up | Leans R | Mod R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | IL | 11 |
IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IL | 14 |
IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IL | 17 |
IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | IN | 2 |
IN | 8 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Leans R | Leans R | IN | 8 |
IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IN | 9 |
KS | 3 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | KS | 3 |
KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | 6 | 0 |
LA | 2 | Joseph Cao | Incumbent R | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Likely D | Leans D | LA | 2 |
LA | 3 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | LA | 3 |
MA | 10 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | MA | 10 |
MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | MD | 1 |
MI | 1 | Open D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | MI | 1 | |
MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | MI | 7 |
MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | MI | 9 |
MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.2 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | MN | 1 |
MN | 6 | Michele Bachmann | Incumbent R | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | MN | 6 |
MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | MO | 4 |
MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | MS | 1 |
NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans R | NC | 8 |
NC | 11 | Heath Shuler | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Safe D | Toss-Up | NC | 11 |
ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | ND | AL |
NE | 2 | Lee Terry | Incumbent R | Likely R | 2.2 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | NE | 2 |
NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NH | 1 |
NH | 2 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NH | 2 |
NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 |
NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NM | 1 |
NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | NM | 2 |
NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NV | 3 |
NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 1 |
NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | NY | 13 |
NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 19 |
NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans D | NY | 20 |
NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | NY | 23 |
NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 24 |
NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | NY | 25 |
NY | 29 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | NY | 29 |
OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | OH | 1 |
OH | 2 | Jean Schmidt | Incumbent R | Safe R | 2.8 | Safe R | Safe R | Mod R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | OH | 2 |
OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | OH | 13 |
OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | OH | 15 |
OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | OH | 16 |
OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | OH | 18 |
OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Toss-Up | PA | 3 |
PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | PA | 4 |
PA | 6 | Jim Gerlach | Incumbent R | Likely R | 2.0 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | PA | 6 |
PA | 7 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 7 |
PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Leans D | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans R | PA | 8 |
PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 10 |
PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | PA | 11 |
PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | PA | 12 |
PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | PA | 17 |
SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | SC | 5 |
SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | SD | AL |
TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | TN | 4 |
TN | 6 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | TN | 6 |
TN | 8 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | TN | 8 |
TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Likely R | Leans R | TX | 17 |
TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | TX | 23 |
VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | VA | 2 |
VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Likely R | VA | 5 |
VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | VA | 9 |
VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | VA | 11 |
WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | WA | 2 |
WA | 3 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | WA | 3 |
WA | 8 | Dave Reichert | Incumbent R | Likely R | 1.8 | Leans R | Leans R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | WA | 8 |
WI | 7 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | WI | 7 |
WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Likely D | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | WI | 8 |
WV | 1 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | WV | 1 |
WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | WV | 3 |
District | Average | Avg. | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||||
Average | Toss-Up | -0.032 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Average | ||||
Updated | 2-Oct-10 | -0.153 | -0.286 | 0.296 | -0.143 | -0.112 | 0.306 | Updated | |||||
Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | ||||||||||||
Rating | |||||||||||||
From | To | ||||||||||||
Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | |||||||||||
Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | |||||||||||
Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | |||||||||||
Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||
Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||
Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||||||||||
Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||
Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 |
I can see big gains for the GOP in the House at this point.
Maybe the Dick Morris number is closer to the final result.
I think the wave this year is bigger than 1994 when the gain was just over 50 seats.
Ping for Adam Kinzinger IL-11. Dump Debbie! The commercials she has running on tv are enough reason to get rid of her!
lol
Halvorson’s toast ... thank God!
If you compare the generic Congressional ballot from 1994 where Republican's regained the House & Senate to the generic Congressional ballot conducted recently, Republicans are doing considerably better than they did in 1994 at this same point in time before the elections.
I'd guess that means the chances of gaining more than 50 seats in the House of Representatives is very high and the chances of regaining the Senate ... gaining control of 52-53 seats is also very high.
Effectively, the Obama Socialist Agenda will be shut down come Nov. 3rd as a result.
Fingers crossed. Powder dry.
Thanks for all your hard work on this.
Most left-leaning experts like Cook and Sabato are likely adjusting late from D to R many races to maintain credibility. Still, turnout is the important factor. Republicans need to come out as if their country was in peril.
Excellent post.
BTTT
If this is true, we should sacrifice McCain by making him lose.
thank you very much for your tremendous efforts.
I, like many others, wonder why we see Republican up 10 points in the polls, yet you consistently call them tossup races?
For example Dan Webster in Florida?
By the way, your panel of experts until quite recently for predicting a gain of 30 seats. I, until quite recently have been predicting a gain of 100 seats.
Unless we see some truly crazy October surprise, I’m now predicting a gain of 120 seats.
Very good post! You’re spending a lot of time on this and I appreciate it.
I’m concerned about RAT voter fraud. Remember that our margin of victory must be twice as big as their fraud. Otherwise we’ll be into counts and recounts till next spring.
Don't be too hard on our experts. They read the polls, they ponder, they think about it, they see what their competitors are doing and then, reluctantly, they update their ratings. And they have picked up the pace in the last few weeks.
My advice: watch the trends. The Experts will try very hard to be the expert we we all remember as being The One Who Got It Right (with apologies to that other "One"). So as we get closer and closer to November 2 the "Experts" are going to finally tell us what they really think. STAY TUNED AND ORDER YOUR POPCORN IN ADVANCE - THERE MAY BE A SHORTAGE.
Excellent update. Thanks for the ping, I don’t always post but I check all of your updates. You’re doing yeoman’s work and it’s much appreciated.
I know it is not your analysis....
But, watch Michigan 15, Dr Rob Steele vs. John Dingell.
This will be a key win if we kick the oldest Congressman out along, with Barney Frank and Sanchez in CA. Not to mention if Alan West wins in FLA.....
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