| OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
Orly!!!!
Well now, that IS interesting!
Sheesh, the GOP in LA is saying that Los Angeles is in play. If it can happen THERE, it can happen here too!
They don’t mention OR-1. I think that is Leans D at most. I’m in OR-3, so there is no hope for me to be represented by a non-kook.
OR-5 is a Republican district and it was ripe to go back to R in ‘08. The Republican candidate lost on his negatives and there is no reason for the Democrats to own it.
The experts are giving this race (OR-05) about a 60-40 probability to the Democrat, but the last poll (from September 9) shows the Democrat ahead 42% to 29%. My poll-based model will give this race 100% to the Democrat because the poll is way outside the margin of error.
Unless there is a new poll, the September 9 poll will stay active for the rest of the election, or until we decide that 60-day polls are too old this late in the election.
-PJ