Posted on 09/18/2010 11:19:16 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03
That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.
This weeks news:
It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.
We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.
We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.
And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.
We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.
Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????
The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.
September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.
These are so helpful and I share them with our local Pubbie group - they are starting to get involved in races outside our State. Have one member who is trying to get more support for Jessie Kelly in AZ - has relative who lives there who thinks this is doable. Several of us sending financial support. Need to get all the R’s in this state we can to counter McCain. Thanks for your hard work.
Wow. GREAT post. Thanks for all that fine and dandy information.
This country will Remember November!
(That would make a good tag.)
I’d like to see an ongoing thread here at FR on races that we can organize behind that are tossups or lean Dem. That way people in safe districts can send money and do support for those flippable districts. Any idea on how to go about that?
Awesome idea. My strength is organizing local people to send money, contact people they know in other states, send emails and faxes, etc. I’m one of the older generation and don’t work in the tech end of things so at the bottom of the list capability wise to assemble info. Whole lot of talented people on FR - maybe somebody will respond.
Maybe we can suggest to the Jim Robinson that we have a race of the week that gets sidebar attention etc...
Yes, a tsunami is coming. It is fueled by tea party support but it needs conservatives to stoke the furnace with donations. What difference can we make if we select from the list, 3 or 5,or 10, or 50 of theses races depending on your ability and donate just $10 or $25 focusing on races that are leaning democrat in the polls? What better investment can there be than stopping the democrat agenda with an 85 or 100 seat victory?
The polls lead the "Experts". They sit on the data for awhile before making their moves. If the polls are good and stay good then the rating of the race will improve. IL-11 is a good example. Good polls over a period of time and it moves from Toss-Up to Leans R. There has been a slow but steady progression in that direction for the races on our list.
We lose the House. Send some money to folks in the middle of our list (those Toss-Ups) if you don't want that to happen. Go to KeyHouseRaces and click on the links to the candidate websites and give them the money. Don't waste your time with the RNC and such. Give it to the people you think need it.
One idea is to donate to some of the candidates on the list above where the race is Toss Up R. You can check on the keyhouseraces.com home page to see candidates that really need funding as the funds totals are listed there.
First order of business is to get those Toss Up R races upgraded to Lean R or Likely R status. When that happens, it would be probably occur that some now listed as Toss Up D would be promoted to at least pure Toss Up. Then those are the ones you support.
There are some other sites that are working toward the goal you are talking about: 40seats.com and rightklik.net. Rightklik has a voting option each week for participants to choose from a list of candidates, then whomever wins you’re supposed to support. Senate candidates are included into the mix there.
Of course, if you want to take the matter of a “Race of the Week” or even “5 candidates a week to support” up with JimRob, please do. Ping InterceptPoint about it as he would have some ideas on how to proceed. Time is getting short.
Christian Students Suspended for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts with Bible Verses
Students suspended for Bible verses on donuts? Give me a break! The donuts were given to students as well as teachers... I guess if the donuts had quotes from the KORAN, this would have been okay...
Fallout after risque cheer controversy (Cheerleader fired)
The story of the cheerleader is about a six old girl. The little girl was tossed from the cheerleader squad because the parents complained about a risque cheer. Instead of getting rid of risque cheer, the group got rid of the little girl. Maybe this is a group of pedophiles going after little girls in Michigan...
Great work ! keep me pinged to your postings
Click on KHR Polls and you will see the Sienna poll right at the top of the list. Click the sort button to look at the polls in District Order.
WI-3: The Republican nominee is Dan Kapanke, who defeated Bruce Evers in the recent primary.
http://www.kapankeforcongress.com/
ME-2: The 2nd district is the Michaud-Levesque race. Pingree-Scontras is the 1st district. Both are potentially competitive. Not sure why Charlie Cook includes one (ME-1) and not the other.
Overall:
I'm surprised that you don't have NC-7 on the list yet - McIntyre vs Pantano. Pantano is a Young Gun and the NRCC has reserved over $100k in advertising for the district. Third party organizations are going in for Pantano as well.
That would really be a blow if Ross (D-AR) loses. That could make Senator Pryor (D-AR) the only Democrat in Washington.
That would be an interesting reversal of the state, considering that in the current session, Boozman (R-AR) is the only Republican from Arkansas in the House or Senate.
Well we have ME-02 labeled correctly but YOU ARE CORRECT about ME-01. It should be on the Tier-2 list. It makes the grade with the Leans D rating by RCP. I'll add it in the update.
KHR doesn’t list Michael Barone as a consultant or contributor. Why isn’t he?
I can’t figure out the KHR site well enough (don’t have time to wade through it right now) to figure out who the 3 (?) or 4 (?) pubs are that KHR now believes may be in trouble.
The well-respected Cook Political Report announced yesterday that they are moving IL-17 into the “toss up” category:
Two months ago, the Cook Political Report made its first change to the race, changing it from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”. Just a couple weeks ago, they changed it again to “Leans Democrat” Now they’ve changed it a third time to “Toss-Up”.
I think it’s safe to say the “experts” are behind the curve by several weeks. They say IL-11 is “Leans Republican” now when the GOP challenger has been ahead by double-digits for months? The logical conclusion I’d draw is “Likely Republican”.
Probably every race on this list has outdated numbers, and the correct trend is one factor to the right (something rated “Safe Democrat” is actually “Likely Democrat”, something rated “Leans Republican” is actually “Likely Republican”, and so on)
Not trying to overly optimistic for the GOP, just realistic given the data out there.
BTTT
Excellent! Thanks for the ping.
In most cases, your analysis would be plausible, but not all. In 3 of the races above, negative info has come out against the R candidate (TN-4, nasty divorce-candidate’s ex-wife claims harassment; SD-AL Noem’s driving record indicates 20 odd tickets in the past 20 years, inc. a DUI; PA-10 where there are persistent reports about funny business in Marino’s business dealings) and that info has downgraded the R’s chances. There are probably more and even a few on the D side (GA-02 Sanford Bishop, for one). It’s always in flux and not necessarily in the same direction.
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