Posted on 09/16/2010 5:48:17 AM PDT by gumbyandpokey
Voters, by a 9-point margin, believe Republicans will pick up both the House and the Senate, even though they are evenly divided over whom they intend to back in six weeks, according to a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll.
In a generic matchup between the two parties, those surveyed were split 43-43 when asked if they would back a Republican or a Democrat on Election Day. This is good news for Democrats and at odds with many other public polls, which have shown Republicans holding a single-digit edge. Continue Reading Text Size
* - * + * reset
Listen to this article. Powered by Odiogo.com Listen VIDEO: VandeHei on results Latest on POLITICO
* Rahm, Jackson Jr. meet on Chicago mayor race * Playbook: Sobering documentary * Tea party gains clout for 2012 * Battleground Poll: Voters see GOP takeover of Congress * Energy tax would thwart gold rush * Why 1982 offers no solace to Dems
POLITICO 44
Better yet for Democrats, in several key regions with numerous House and Senate seats in play — namely, the Midwest and Northeast — they hold a 5-point advantage, suggesting the party’s congressional fortunes aren’t nearly as grim as the media coverage might suggest. (See: POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll Results Event, Watch Live)
In the West — defined as Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington — Democrats hold a blowout 51-31 generic advantage. Those numbers, however, are tempered by findings that should send shudders down the spines of Democrats in the Mountain West: In that eight-state region, where the party has made significant recent inroads, the GOP held a 24-point lead.
Overall, the likely voters polled said they anticipated Republicans will have a big night, picking up the 39 seats necessary to win the House (45-36, with 19 percent uncertain) and the 10 needed to recapture the Senate (46-37-17).
One reason may be the disparate levels of voter enthusiasm. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed who usually vote Republican said they were extremely or very likely to vote in November. For usual Democratic voters, 87 percent said the same.
The poll also showed wide enthusiasm gaps between the youngest and oldest voters. Seventy-nine percent of voters ages 18 to 34 said they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 96 percent of those age 65 or older.
When broken down by race, the gap is equally noticeable — and politically consequential for the Democratic Party. Just 76 percent of African-Americans said they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 92 percent of whites.
The rest of the poll similarly offers reasons for hope and hand-wringing for both parties, including signs that the Democrats’ blame-Bush-first campaign on the economy is resonating but that the blame-Boehner-next campaign for everything else has a long way to go.
This is the first in a series of six bipartisan polls that will be conducted for POLITICO and The George Washington University as part of the nearly 20-year-old Battleground survey. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationally between Sept. 7 and Sept. 9, was conducted and analyzed by two widely respected pollsters, Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and Republican Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. (See: Analysis from Goeas, Lake)
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42247.html#ixzz0zhBpECpO
This is so “out there” compared to other polls though.
I dont “get” this poll.
I’ll stick with Rass. since his polling seems to be the most consistent. besides the libs typically have held a minimum of 4 points more in generic balloting throughout the years. In other words a 50-50 split is actually BAD news for the Left. Gallup has the Rep up 5 points this week and Rass has them up about 9.
The enthusiasm is with the Rep this time and enthusiasm translates to votes. It does no good to SAY you will vote for someone if you don’t actually get out and do it.
We pretty much have been relying on pre-Labor Day polls. Now, that people start to pay attention to politics and the Dhims with their MSM friends work extra hard to portray the Republicans as ‘extreme’, things are not going to be as rosy as in early Summer. I still expect us to win the House, but it’s not going to be as easy as some people seem to believe.
Smells fishy to me...
It's like the poll is saying two opposing things. It makes no sense.
GWU polling is heavily biased towards liberals and Battleground uses other polling sources as well depending on what it is they are trying to accomplish.
One reason may be the disparate levels of voter enthusiasm. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed who usually vote Republican said they were extremely or very likely to vote in November. For usual Democratic voters, 87 percent said the same.
It sounds like, for the purpose of their "generic ballot", they didn't weight the results for the probability of people showing up at the polls (likely voters). Sounds more like they used the filter "usual Democratic Voters", even though 13 percent of them weren't going to show up, vs 95% for republicans -- an 8-point margin.
And who knows what they did with independents.
It would be interesting to see there polling history for past generic race polls. The poll on expected to win sometimes reveals the true leaning when people are afraid to identify their vote.
Isn’t Battleground a pretty respected poll? I won’t bother posting the results if it’s supposed to be junk. I do agree that it’s not the same political environment come post-labor day. People are honing in now and paying attention.
Republicans aren’t expected to pick up many seats in the Northeast or the Left Coast - perhaps one or two in NY, one in Mass, none in CT, maybe one in NJ and maybe one each in CA, Wash, and Oregon. The real battlegrounds are: Ohio (maybe 4), Pennsylvania (3-4), North Carolina (3), Virginia (2-3) Colorado (as many as 3), Arizona (3) and to a lesser degree, Illinois (2). These alone give us one-half of what is needed for a House takeover.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
I go here to see ALL the polls.
I don’t count the votes until election day is over..but I like to see th trends.
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_100915_goeas_analysis.html
“...In addition, this survey finds the generic Congressional ballot tied (43%-43%). On this generic ballot, Republicans hold significant advantages with key demographic groups like seniors (52%-33%), those who disapprove of the work of both parties in Congress (55%-25%), and those who are extremely likely to vote (46%-40%). Most importantly, when looking at the turnout model of likely 2010 voters, the generic ballot moves to 50% Republican and 42% Democratic – an eight-point advantage. ..”
But why would people be afraid to identify their vote? That certainly hasn’t been true of other polls. IMO, things are bound to tighten up. The Dems have a ton of money to spend (the attacks on Scott Walker in Wisconsin are already at a fever pitch immediately after the primary) and they know how to use it.
It was tied like this going into 1994 elections. This is really bad news for the Dems
Actually, I’ve been thinking the last couple days. From a political standpoint, we’d probably be better off with about a net 5 seat House majority for the GOP, but fall short of taking the Senate - maybe ending up at 47 - 49 R’s.
That is enough to stop Obama’s agenda, but since Democrats will still control 2 of 3 (House + Senate + Executive Branch) they can still bear the share of the blame in 2012.
Once you factor all that in, it seems that it’s not all that different from what the other polls are telling us.
Politco commission the poll. Politco is a Democrat propaganda outlet. Therefore this poll should be treated like any other poll put out by a Democrat polling group. Consider this the best the Dems will do and Rass the worse the Dems will do and some where in the middle is probably where the truth is right now.
As it stands now, we need to get 13 of 37 tossups. I can live with those odds.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.