Republicans aren’t expected to pick up many seats in the Northeast or the Left Coast - perhaps one or two in NY, one in Mass, none in CT, maybe one in NJ and maybe one each in CA, Wash, and Oregon. The real battlegrounds are: Ohio (maybe 4), Pennsylvania (3-4), North Carolina (3), Virginia (2-3) Colorado (as many as 3), Arizona (3) and to a lesser degree, Illinois (2). These alone give us one-half of what is needed for a House takeover.
Actually, I’ve been thinking the last couple days. From a political standpoint, we’d probably be better off with about a net 5 seat House majority for the GOP, but fall short of taking the Senate - maybe ending up at 47 - 49 R’s.
That is enough to stop Obama’s agenda, but since Democrats will still control 2 of 3 (House + Senate + Executive Branch) they can still bear the share of the blame in 2012.
There are 8 Dem seats in play in NY (Bishop, McMahon, Hall, Murphy, Owens, Maffei, Arcuri, Massa). And since when is PA not part of the Northeast?