This is so “out there” compared to other polls though.
I’ll stick with Rass. since his polling seems to be the most consistent. besides the libs typically have held a minimum of 4 points more in generic balloting throughout the years. In other words a 50-50 split is actually BAD news for the Left. Gallup has the Rep up 5 points this week and Rass has them up about 9.
The enthusiasm is with the Rep this time and enthusiasm translates to votes. It does no good to SAY you will vote for someone if you don’t actually get out and do it.
We pretty much have been relying on pre-Labor Day polls. Now, that people start to pay attention to politics and the Dhims with their MSM friends work extra hard to portray the Republicans as ‘extreme’, things are not going to be as rosy as in early Summer. I still expect us to win the House, but it’s not going to be as easy as some people seem to believe.
GWU polling is heavily biased towards liberals and Battleground uses other polling sources as well depending on what it is they are trying to accomplish.
One reason may be the disparate levels of voter enthusiasm. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed who usually vote Republican said they were extremely or very likely to vote in November. For usual Democratic voters, 87 percent said the same.
It sounds like, for the purpose of their "generic ballot", they didn't weight the results for the probability of people showing up at the polls (likely voters). Sounds more like they used the filter "usual Democratic Voters", even though 13 percent of them weren't going to show up, vs 95% for republicans -- an 8-point margin.
And who knows what they did with independents.
It would be interesting to see there polling history for past generic race polls. The poll on expected to win sometimes reveals the true leaning when people are afraid to identify their vote.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
I go here to see ALL the polls.
I don’t count the votes until election day is over..but I like to see th trends.
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_100915_goeas_analysis.html
“...In addition, this survey finds the generic Congressional ballot tied (43%-43%). On this generic ballot, Republicans hold significant advantages with key demographic groups like seniors (52%-33%), those who disapprove of the work of both parties in Congress (55%-25%), and those who are extremely likely to vote (46%-40%). Most importantly, when looking at the turnout model of likely 2010 voters, the generic ballot moves to 50% Republican and 42% Democratic – an eight-point advantage. ..”
It was tied like this going into 1994 elections. This is really bad news for the Dems
Battleground is a good pollster, but this seems to be a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, making it pretty worthless this close to the election
Reads like statistical convolution based on a 2008 demographic polling. There’s way too much fuzzy here for me to get a reading.
These two pollsters seem to work well together.
Republicans had better take note: NOTHING is guaranteed. Obama’s agenda must be crushed, so we need to quit cutting each others throats...and quit thinking we’ve got this election “in the bag”. We don’t.
Roughly one poll in twenty will produce results outside the margin of error. This poll obviously is one of those outliers. End of story. Nothing to see here folks. Move on.
Sounds like this poll only sampled people living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. By next week Obamski should have all the dissenters out of HIS house and, while the unemployment numbers will uptick slightly, the polls will be more favorable to the DemocRATs... /sarc
Yeah...right.
This is the liberal Politico/ George Washington University "Battleground" poll.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Politico, good little lap dogs they are, are trying to sell a scenario where ANYTHING less than taking House and Senate is a calamitous defeat for the GOP.
Sorry wrong , Battleground shifted to the Left in 2008 and is very pro Dem party .
Your sign in date indicates you might be fairly new. Let me explain about posting polls hear. In general all polls that show what we want to hear are good and all polls that do not show what we want are bad.
You may not be aware that generic polls trend strongly toward democrats so much so that even a tie is very bad news for the democrats. Also, that the generic polls are a better forecast the further we are from an election. They are useful tools to get the mood of the people when no one knows who the candidates will be. The closer we get to election day more people have names and parties they identify and to get a better picture one needs to look at the sum total of individual races. So as time progresses, the generic poll will be a lesser predictor than the individual polls.
My view is to consider each poll as good unless things that make you question. First, I’d like to see how the trend is going for the particular pollster. The trend is important and likely more accurate. For example, following the trend of this poll in the next several weeks may be more revealing. It may be that this polls base line is different than the others but still reveal a major win for republicans.
Second, when internal information in the poll is contradicting it causes me to look for reasons. When this polls shows we have expectations out of sink with what each says they will do we have the possibility the people are lying to the pollsters or that the pollsters have a flawed poll.
Third, when there is a major shift in energy of the voters it becomes very difficult for the pollsters to identify likely voters. This election has me confused because we are seeing many signs that the pollsters are missing the likely voter ratios because the polls going into primaries have been off. The pollsters may not have a handle on the likely voters yet. Each time they do a poll they are gathering data to help them determine likely voters and can adjust accordingly. Other pollsters may have better data for determining that key assumption.