http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_100915_goeas_analysis.html
“...In addition, this survey finds the generic Congressional ballot tied (43%-43%). On this generic ballot, Republicans hold significant advantages with key demographic groups like seniors (52%-33%), those who disapprove of the work of both parties in Congress (55%-25%), and those who are extremely likely to vote (46%-40%). Most importantly, when looking at the turnout model of likely 2010 voters, the generic ballot moves to 50% Republican and 42% Democratic – an eight-point advantage. ..”
Once you factor all that in, it seems that it’s not all that different from what the other polls are telling us.