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Obama 'Guaranteed' 2012 Win, American University Professor Says
AOL Politics Daily ^ | July 12, 2010 | David Sessions

Posted on 07/13/2010 6:20:27 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia

President Obama is "guaranteed" to win re-election in 2012, according to Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. Lichtman's formula predicts the outcome of the popular vote without considering candidate opinion polls, campaign strategies or political events.

Lichtman's system is based on 13 political conditions that he calls "keys." The keys favor the incumbent president's party: When five or fewer of them are false, the incumbent party wins the presidency. If six or more are false, the opposition party wins. In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama -- would have beaten John McCain.

Only four of the 13 keys (outlined here) are currently in the "false" column for President Obama. Counting against him are the facts that he has not achieved a major foreign policy victory, that his party will lose seats in the House of Representatives, and that per-capita economic growth does not exceed the two previous presidential terms. "True" keys include: there is no serious contest for the Democratic Party nomination, Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure, and his administration has achieved "major changes in national policy."

Lichtman, who described the keys theory in his 2008 book, "Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President," questions the widespread perception that presidential campaigns are "horse races" influenced by minor events and media coverage.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; allanlichtman; americanuniversity; obama
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1 posted on 07/13/2010 6:20:32 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

There are no gaurantees in life.


2 posted on 07/13/2010 6:21:41 AM PDT by thethirddegree
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

“Obama ‘Guaranteed’ 2012 Win, American University Professor Says “

Bartender...I’ll have whatever he’s having...


3 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:08 AM PDT by jessduntno (Leftists don't hate guns, they love them. When they control them. 120,000,000 dead so far!)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Allan is a DITZ!! He drinks Obama’s Bathwater.


4 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:18 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion......the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Nope, no subjectivity in those answers, no siree!!!


5 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:31 AM PDT by OCCASparky (Obama--Playing a West Wing fantasy in a '24' world.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

And just think, good Americans are paying $40,000 per year to have their kids educated/propogandized by guys like this.


6 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:49 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: thethirddegree

What a fool.

Nothing is for certain in life or politics.


7 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:49 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Oh well, its already decided, I guess we’ll all have to stay home now. No need to vote. NOT!


8 posted on 07/13/2010 6:22:59 AM PDT by Bringbackthedraft (As Americans we must think We the People, not we the Party.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Next they will consult astrologers, read tea leaves and use an 8 ball.


9 posted on 07/13/2010 6:23:02 AM PDT by kezzek
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

I believe the dumb masses will feel so guilty about the racism in this country that they WILL reelect Obama to double prove they are not racists!

Yeah, they’re that dumb!


10 posted on 07/13/2010 6:23:31 AM PDT by griswold3 ('Regulation and law without enforcement is no law at all)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

The universities in America are filled to the brim with left wing crackpots of every stripe.

The MSM will publish any story they can concoct that promotes their left wing ideology - there are hundreds of academics, think tanks and pundits shouting from the rooftops that Obama is a one-term failure; yet the MSM prints the opinion of a senile left wing radical.


11 posted on 07/13/2010 6:23:44 AM PDT by Bon mots
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Not jumping the gun there Al?


12 posted on 07/13/2010 6:24:35 AM PDT by AU72
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To: kezzek

Maybe they could ask the Oracle Octopus:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2551268/posts


13 posted on 07/13/2010 6:24:46 AM PDT by rightwingintelligentsia (Forcing one person to pay for the irresponsibility of another is NOT social justice.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Just another crystal ball. The future may well have it’s own plans.


14 posted on 07/13/2010 6:25:30 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia
Obama has not presided over a major foreign policy failure

What about the gulf oil spill? BP is a foreign entity whose dividends pay lots of pensions in the UK and USA, and this thing is going to get worse before it gets better.

15 posted on 07/13/2010 6:26:06 AM PDT by krb (Obama is a miserable failure.)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Wanna bet?


16 posted on 07/13/2010 6:26:23 AM PDT by popdonnelly (Democrats = authoritarian socialists)
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To: griswold3
I believe the dumb masses will feel so guilty about the racism in this country that they WILL reelect Obama to double prove they are not racists!

Yeah, they’re that dumb!

Well, it worked once...

17 posted on 07/13/2010 6:26:34 AM PDT by Bon mots
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To: rightwingintelligentsia
Great Post! Thank you.

Obama will try for a second term in 2012. Will one Republican governor try and enforce the Constitution and keep him off one state ballot?

Meanwhile, The GOP:
No Program
No Plan
No Leader
No Clue

We will take The House next Fall. The Democrats look forward to that. They are giving the GOP the Shiite-covered end of the stick with which they hope to beat us to death in 2012.

18 posted on 07/13/2010 6:27:43 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (No more bitchinmoanin from the Right. Program, Plan, Leaders, Courage)
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To: rightwingintelligentsia

Now this guy I might trust...... ;)

19 posted on 07/13/2010 6:28:28 AM PDT by BossLady
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To: rightwingintelligentsia
In 2007, Lichmann predicted that any Democratic candidate -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or Barack Obama -- would have beaten John McCain.

Any nutcase with a pile of chicken guts could have done the same..................

20 posted on 07/13/2010 6:28:32 AM PDT by Red Badger (No, Obama's not the Antichrist. He's just some guy in the neighborhood.............)
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