Posted on 07/12/2010 6:49:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.
Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.
That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.
Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.
"Strong evidence exists that a fundamental change has occurred among African-Americans in the New Orleans area, where performance overrides ethnic voting," Kennedy said. "And since Joseph Cao is also a minority candidate who has an outstanding record of personal and political accomplishments, African-Americans identify with him and are willing to give much higher support to a non-African-American than in previous elections."
Cao is well-known throughout his district -- surprisingly so, for a freshman. Fully 54% of district residents rate him favorably, while just 9% say they see him unfavorably. Richmond is much less well-known, clocking in at 23% favorable and 12% unfavorable. Dems believe they will win over a much larger vote share as Richmond's name becomes better known.
The poll also tested Cao against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D), who last week said she wouldn't run and who trailed Cao by a 49%-30% margin. The poll did not test state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), who has qualified to run for the seat but who has much less cash on hand than Richmond and is seen as an underdog in the Dem primary.
Dems say Carter Peterson's decision not to file will give them a leg up in the long run. Running alongside Richmond and LaFonta, little-known businessman Gary Johnson (D) and ex-Congressional aide Eugene Green (D) are unlikely to take a significant percentage of the vote, meaning the winner of the Aug. 28 primary will likely get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.
Dems also caught a break when several African Americans considering an independent bid against Cao said they would not file, limiting the potential for a split Dem base. Cao got a challenger at the last minute in salesman Norman Billiot (R), though on Monday Billiot withdrew his name, giving Cao a clean shot at the GOP nomination.
Opposition strategists pointed to the very makeup of Cao's district, which gave Pres. Obama 75% of the vote in '08. No other member of Congress holds a district that favored the other party's WH nominee by such a large margin.
"Rep. Cao has done anything he needed to in order to stay in good graces with his national Republican benefactors and try to block President Obama's agenda in a district where voters strongly support it," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "The moment Cao voted against historic health insurance reform was the moment we knew our Democratic nominee will be successful in November."
The poll was conducted by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight. It surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.
“Well good for you.”
You must be a lot of fun at a Tea Party rally.
“You’re wasting your time trying to convince the witch-burning faction of the GOP that a moderate Republican in a liberal district is worth fighting for. All I can say is that the members of this all-or-nothing faction are set in their ways. “
Yea, I hear you. Much of the time they’re trolls, attempting to demoralize us. You just have to fight them off.
“Middle class black family should by all rights be Republican.”
Tell me about it. So should Hispanics (thankfully, some are). As I mentioned before, Democrats, represent a TINY FACTION of this country, when you look at value base - maybe 10%, at most. There is NO WAY they should have ever gotten this much power - but they did.
Unicorns that pass skittles are hard to resist.
Re Post #34. That is a great post.
A congressional seat is a terrible thing to waste. Cao is not wasting his. In fact, by voting to the right of his constituency on some key issues, he is really taking risks. Liberal Republicans like Kirk and Specter totally wasted theirs. I rejoiced the day Specter switched parties. No longer would I have to hold my nose shut with vice grips and vote for him as I had done for several elections (never primaries-only general).
BobL, you are wasting your breath on some of these people.
They’ve never dealt with having to win an election in a DEM majority district.
What are your predictions of the U.S. Senate and House elections? I think that Republicans will gain four seats in the Senate and 25 in the House.
Mark Kirk is my congressman, and I’ve never voted for him, since he’s as liberal as all of the Democrats he defeated. I skip that section, of the ballot.
I think you are being too pessimistic regarding the GOP’s chances in November. I think that the GOP has a realistic chance of gaining 12 net Senate seats (for these purposes, I’m counting RINOs like Kirk and Castle as Republicans), and if you made me make a prediction right now I would say that the GOP picks up 11, since the environment won’t get any better for the Democrats come November. In the House, I’ve been talking about a broad range from 50-80 seats for a few months now, and I’ve heard nothing to make me want to reconsider my prediction; if anything, I think that the GOP will gain closer to 75 than to 55. But the election is still over 3 and 1/2 months away, and we won’t know exactly how things will shake out until at least after Labor Day.
Many people think that I’m being pessimistic, but I think that I’m being realistic, based on 2008 and ‘06 election results. Please give me a list of at least 40 House districts that will change from Democrat to Repubican, this year.
Yeah, voting for "historic" reasons netted you an unemployment rate over 10%, maybe over 20% for blacks.
I can give you 80 that have a good chance of going Republican. Of course, you could always say “oh, I think that Matheson will survive, he always does” or “the IL-17 just isn’t Republican enough for Hare to be defeated,” but we really don’t have much on which to judge individual races at this stage. What we do know is that the GOP is kicking the Democrats’ but in the generic congressional ballot, and that in 1994 the GOP picked up like 50 seats (despite less low-hanging fruit) when the generic congressional ballot was even.
In 1994, Republicans gained 54 seats, in the House. That’s why I predict that, this year, the GOP will gain about 25. Our country is more liberal, so our gains will be about half as good as they were, in 1994.
black minority voters not moonbats, they are reflexive Dem voters but not liberals, that’s what may save Cao.
“They’ve never dealt with having to win an election in a DEM majority district.”
Thanks, I hear you. But I figure if they’re misguided, they might think a bit harder than reflexively condemning Cao. If they’re trolls (trying to demoralize the FReepers), then they have to be neutralized.
If you've ever heard Cao talk, he's very humble and earnest about himself. He's a pretty soft-spoken and sincere guy with a self-deprecating sense of humor (notes that “Cao” literally means “tall” in Vietnamese, while he barely stands 5'2” in dress shoes)
His style and cantor is quite refreshing compared to RINOs like Mark Kirk's “everyone loves me, I am so great and know everything” smug attitude, Arlen Specter's vengeful and arrogant sneering, and Mike Castle's nonchalant “we'd all be better off if right-wingers would drop dead” insulting tone.
Nobody knew anything about Cao before his victory (because no one expected him to win!) but he's already cared out quite a niche for himself in Washington as one of the GOP caucus's leaders on human dignity, human rights, and the pro-life Catholic perspective. Sort of a slightly more conservative version of Chris Smith of NJ. He background as the first Vietnamese-American congressman is an added bonus, people pay attention when he speaks up about oppressive communist regimes and refugees. Perhaps even more so than the second-generation Cuban Americans in Congress, this guy knows from experience. Unfortunately, with all the “human dignity” stuff, Cao is bound to annoy us from time to time by jumping aboard many of the Dems touchy-feel schemes with silly names like “Global AIDS Relief Act of 2010” and “Every Kid Should Go to Preschool Act”
So John Boenher may take some heat from conservative freepers for his “The future is Cao” memo, but I still agree with that senitment. I'm glad it was Cao making history and not some RAT. I'd much rather have Cao on our side. In fact, I'd love to have him as a guest speaker of any GOP function I'd attend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6iaWA8kJ3g&feature=channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQsZFFHroao&feature=channel
Great post. Thank you.
I had no idea that “Cao” is pronounced “Gou” .
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