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I can give you 80 that have a good chance of going Republican. Of course, you could always say “oh, I think that Matheson will survive, he always does” or “the IL-17 just isn’t Republican enough for Hare to be defeated,” but we really don’t have much on which to judge individual races at this stage. What we do know is that the GOP is kicking the Democrats’ but in the generic congressional ballot, and that in 1994 the GOP picked up like 50 seats (despite less low-hanging fruit) when the generic congressional ballot was even.

In 1994, Republicans gained 54 seats, in the House. That’s why I predict that, this year, the GOP will gain about 25. Our country is more liberal, so our gains will be about half as good as they were, in 1994.

In all honesty, though, I must admit one of the reasons I come to Cao’s defense (despite his weak record on the GOP platform) is I can't help but like the guy. If you ever read Congressman's Cao’s lifestory, it's quite inspirational and he really does personify the American dream — fled Vietnam as a 8 year old child during the fall of Saigon, married his sweetheart and is raising two cute little girls, sought to become a Catholic priest and entered seminary school but realized it wasn't his calling in life so he earned his master's degree in philosophy and put himself through law school, eventually earning a J.D. from Loyola by attending night classes. Helped rebuild New Orleans during Katrina and ran for public office because as a private citizen he realized the politicians representing him in government weren't being held accountable and doing their jobs.

If you've ever heard Cao talk, he's very humble and earnest about himself. He's a pretty soft-spoken and sincere guy with a self-deprecating sense of humor (notes that “Cao” literally means “tall” in Vietnamese, while he barely stands 5'2” in dress shoes)

His style and cantor is quite refreshing compared to RINOs like Mark Kirk's “everyone loves me, I am so great and know everything” smug attitude, Arlen Specter's vengeful and arrogant sneering, and Mike Castle's nonchalant “we'd all be better off if right-wingers would drop dead” insulting tone.

Nobody knew anything about Cao before his victory (because no one expected him to win!) but he's already cared out quite a niche for himself in Washington as one of the GOP caucus's leaders on human dignity, human rights, and the pro-life Catholic perspective. Sort of a slightly more conservative version of Chris Smith of NJ. He background as the first Vietnamese-American congressman is an added bonus, people pay attention when he speaks up about oppressive communist regimes and refugees. Perhaps even more so than the second-generation Cuban Americans in Congress, this guy knows from experience. Unfortunately, with all the “human dignity” stuff, Cao is bound to annoy us from time to time by jumping aboard many of the Dems touchy-feel schemes with silly names like “Global AIDS Relief Act of 2010” and “Every Kid Should Go to Preschool Act”

So John Boenher may take some heat from conservative freepers for his “The future is Cao” memo, but I still agree with that senitment. I'm glad it was Cao making history and not some RAT. I'd much rather have Cao on our side. In fact, I'd love to have him as a guest speaker of any GOP function I'd attend:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6iaWA8kJ3g&feature=channel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQsZFFHroao&feature=channel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGPnthThHSI&feature=channel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cbBk4gbeds&feature=related