Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List

Interceptpoint | 28 March 2009 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

I have been thinking for some time that we need a really good list of the House Democrats that we hope to unseat in the 2010 election. Freeper randita has compiled a very nice list that is continuously being updated and I have used that as my primary source. The idea is to get Freeper recommendations on who we should be supporting in primaries and, after the primaries, who we really think can and should win. Given those inputs I will update the chart as necessary.

I've expanded the basic "who's running" to include the kind of data that Larry Sabato uses to evaluate the races. Based on a randita recommendation, I will also add in the Primary dates. I have also recorded the YES or NO vote by the House on the final Obamacare vote. Look for errors and report them if you see them.

Also, to keep the size of the chart down to a reasonable size I have limited the number of Challengers listed to 3. The # column shows how many that are actually showing on randit's list. And I may not have the best ones listed so we need Freeper comments on who the really serious candidates are. And for sure we need to know who the RINOs are.

So I'm soliciting inputs to add to the chart, to correct errors, to identify the best candidates etc. Don't be shy. Let us know what you think.

And lastly, the chart is currently just a .png to solicit help. I will work on filling in the blanks and at some point issue a real table version with live links to the candidates websites which are in fact already entered in the Excel file.

[Nonstatist]

Wouldn’t the Spawn of Sarbanes be more vulnerable than Ruppersberger or Hoyer?

You may be right.The 3rd has a higher white population than the other two, but otherwise similar voting to the 2nd district. It may be the easiest to flip; I have no idea who is running there yet, though.

[originalbuckeye]

That’s what Kyl was saying. But we have to do better than that or it will be decades before we can repair the damage that Zero is doing.

[TexasNative2000]

Rodriguez should be toast. I'm in his district and the folks around here are LIVID.

When I called his office to ask about his position on the Health Care Bill, I told the staffer that she needed to get her resume' polished up because she would be looking for a new job in January

[Big E]

Great post, thanks. PA-11, Democrat incumbent Paul Kanjorski. This SOB has been around for 20+ years, is on the banking committee, was hip-deep in the corruption surrounding the bailout. Former Mayor of Hazelton, Lou Barletta, one of the first to attack illegal immigration on a local level has run against Kanjorski twice in 2006 and 2008, both years favoring Democrats. In 2008, in a district Obama carried by 5-10 points, Barletta lost by only 2 points. This time around Barletta should be able to win the day, especially considering Kanjorski cast one of the deciding votes on Healthcare. Hell, Kanjorski has voted the Pelosi-Communist ticket, right down the line. I have supported Mayor Lou with my money, and think he would be worthy of other conservatives support too.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I donated to Barletta in 2008, and will do so again in 2010, and I agree that he’s got an excellent chance of beating Kanjorski in the PA-11. But I don’t think that Barletta ran in 2006 and 2008; I think that his two House runs were in 2002 (or maybe 2000?) and 2008.

[OCCASparky]

Both New Hampshire seats are vulnerable. Hodes gave his up to run for Senate, and Shea-Porter (aka Che-Porter) isn’t polling above 35 percent against ANY announced GOP candidate.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The TX-23 was redrawn by the courts in 2006 to have a much higher Hispanic population (the Hispanic percentage went up from 55% to 62%). Republican Henry Bonilla lost in a low-turnout general-election run-offin 2006, and in 2008 the GOP ran Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who was certainly well qualified and a proven vote-getter in the district’s biggest county, but running an Anglo from San Antonio’s westside was not an effective way to get votes from conservative Hispanics out in Eagle Pass andin the outskirts of El Paso, or from heavily Hispanic South San Antonio, for that matter. In the GOP primary, Larson had defeated Hispanic businessman Quico Canseco, who is originally from Laredo but has lived in San Antonio for a few years, and Canseco made the run-off for this year’s GOP nomination.

I think that “Zero” Rodriguez would lose to the conservative Republican Canseco, but if firmer CIA officer Will Hurd wins the nomination, it will be more difficult for us to beat Rodriguez. Hurd has many characteristics that make him an attractive candidate, and if he were running against, say, Chet Edwards or Lyle Doggett in those districts he would be the perfect choice, but we must face the fact that it will be difficult to convince Hispanic voters in TX-23 to vote against the Mexican-born, San Antonio-raised Rodriguez and for a Republican who happens to be a non-Hispanic black.

If Canseco was a RINO or a bad candidate, I would roll the dice with Hurd and demographics be damned, but I think that nominating Hurd over the also good Canseco in the TX-23 would be like nominating a Swedish-American Lutheran over qualified Italian-American Catholic in the Staten Island and Bensonhurst-based, overwhelmingly Italian Catholic NY-13.

[AuH2ORepublican]

So far, there are no announced GOP candidates against Ruppersberger in the Baltimore-Aberdeen-Havre de Grace MD-02. We need to get Cal Ripken to run. : )

In the MD-03, we have attorney Kevin Carney http://www.carneyforcongress2010.com/ and Iraq War veteran Ben Lawless http://www.lawlessformaryland.com/ running for the GOP nomination. From the looks of their websites, Carney appears to be a serious candidate, while Lawless needs some work.

In Hoyer’s MD-05, we have three Republicans running so far. The most promising candidate appears to be Charles County GOP Chairman Charles Lollar, a young, solid conservative: http://www.lollarforcongress.com/. Charles County has been trending more and more Democrat as it’s black population increases, and Lollar, who not only is a local leader in Charles County but also happens to be black, could help bring the county back to the GOP fold (which is necessary to have achance to beat Hoyer). Lollar could also help reduce Hoyer’s marginamong black voters in the district overall (the MD-05 is around 30% black), and if he can hold President Bush’s approximately 60% of the CD’s non-black vote while getting around 30% of the black vote he can pull off the upset.

[no dems]

Thanks for the Post. I’ll look it over and give my input shortly.

[no dems]

In District 1 of Michigan, the seat currently held by the Traitor Mark Stupak, I say Dr. Dan Benishek is the best candidate to get behind. He is a Medical Doctor, espouses Conservative values and is Pro-Life.

[no dems]

AMEN: Lou Barletta in PA-11 and Dr. Dan Benishek in MI-1 the seat currently held by Mark Stupak.

[no dems]

PA-12...Bill Russell is the man. He ran for the seat once before, I believe, when Murtha was alive. Anyhow, the folks in that area know him to be a good Conservative.

[Smokin' Joe]

Rick Berg will be the Republican running against Pomeroy in ND.

Pomeroy promised on Jan 29th in a Bismarck Tribune article he would not vote for either version (House of Senate) of the Obamacare. He lied.

[Hush44]

NY23Dem Bill Owens
Vulnerable to challanger Doug Hoffman

...........................................
NY20 Dem Scott Murphy is vulnerable, contrary to what some of the DC pols reported him as during the countdown to the vote. Two challengers remaining are Chris Gibson, Patrick Ziegler

Congressional District (NY-20) Survey March 18, 2010
http://www.healthtransformation.net/galleries/POSPoll03-10/NY-20%20Interview%20Schedule.pdf

And, if the 2010 election for US CONGRESS were being held today, for whom would you vote
the Republican candidate
.... OR ....
the Democratic candidate
for Congress from this district?
43% TOTAL REPUBLICAN
34% TOTAL DEMOCRATIC

Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed
changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration?
40% TOTAL SUPPORT
55% TOTAL OPPOSE

A good part of NY 20 (prior to redrawing) was Red, and the district of Jerry Solomon.

~Kate

[Hush44]

More from that survey, in case it’s helpful to others

The Center for Health Transformation

http://www.healthtransformation.net/cs/news/news_detail?pressrelease.id=3692

Poll in 36 Districts: Yes on Healthcare Bill May Be a One-Way Ticket Home

http://www.healthtransformation.net/galleries/default-file/District%20list.pdf

Bright, Bobby Neal AL-2
Davis, Artur Genestre AL-7
Ross, Michael Avery AR-4
Markey, Betsy CO-4
Boyd, F. Allen FL-2
Kosmas, Suzanne M. FL-24
Barrow, John Jenkins GA-12
Marshall, Jim GA-8
Minnick, Walt ID-1
Chandler, Albert Benjamin KY-6
Melancon, Charles J. LA-3
Kratovil, Frank M. Jr. MD-1
Peterson, Collin Clark MN-7
Skelton, Isaac Newton MO-4
Childers, Travis Wayne MS-1
Taylor, Gary Eugene MS-4
Shuler, Heath NC-11
McIntyre, Mike NC-7
Kissell, Larry NC-8
Adler, John Herbert NJ-3
Teague, Harry NM-2
McMahon, Michael E. NY-13
Murphy, Scott NY-20
Boccieri, John A. OH-16
Boren, David Daniel OK-2
Holden, Thomas Timothy PA-17
Altmire, Jason PA-4
Herseth Sandlin, Stephanie SD (AL)
Davis, Lincoln Edward TN-4
Gordon, Barton Jennings TN-6
Tanner, John S. TN-8
Edwards, Thomas Chester TX-17
Matheson, James David UT-2
Nye, Glenn C. VA-2
Boucher, Frederick Carl VA-9
Baird, Brian Norton WA-3

Details here

Polling by Public Opinion Strategies - March 19, 2010

http://www.healthtransformation.net/cs/POSPoll031910

[NTHockey]

As I expected, at least 30% of these are safe or leaning. Then there are those who will be reelected without a doubt - NY, CA, IL, etc. and there won’t be as much change as needed.

Unless they are all voted out, the communization of America is going to continue. That is, until the people no longer have any fear of living or dying.

[InterceptPoint]

Ye gads...BOTH of New Hampshire’s reps should be on this list...

I agree. I'm going to add them to the list.

[InterceptPoint]

"This chart shows the problem. Many of the Democrats have no opponents running against them. We need to raise up qualified candidates and fund them.

Actually that's not the case. I just haven't finished filling in the blanks yet. Watch for the next update and it will look better. Thanks for your interest.

[InterceptPoint]

LibFeeUSA:

Thanks for the CQPolitics link of the House Seats that are safe and those that are in play or potentially in play: We definitely need a reference like this to help cut our list down to the truly vulnerable. We cannot just include people we would like to see voted out of office.

Note: Your link is broken but THIS ONE works.

Question for you: CAN WE TRUST CQPolitics.com? If not, is there a more trusted alternative?

I'm going to assume we can because I have to get to the heart of the issue. We need 40 D's or vacancies replaced by 40 R's to take back the House. So our list has to have our best estimate of 50 or so seats that need to be taken from the Dems. Plus there are a few Republicans that may be at risk that probably should be on the list.

The goal here is to identify good conservative WINNING CANDIDATES and to give them our support, financial and otherwise.

[SumProVita]

A thought:

We also need to keep our eyes on the positions for state attorney general. This will be become ever more important in challenging run-away federal control.