Posted on 03/11/2010 12:56:52 PM PST by Joy Angela
Last week I made a rare appearance on MSNBC (a network on which I have had numerous “YouTube moments” since the 2008 election, when they became the “Obama Network”) and shared some statements which apparently shocked some of my fellow conservatives.
Since even before the release of my documentary about the media coverage of Obama’s election, I have been described by many commentators (both as a compliment and as a condemnation) as Sarah Palin’s most ardent defender against the never-ending stream of unfair media attacks against her. What seemed to surprise people on both ends of the political spectrum was my assertion on “Morning Joe” that, based on her current path, and barring a literal act of God, there is absolutely no chance that Palin can beat Obama in 2012.
Since the television appearance was barely five minutes long and my view of this important subject is far more nuanced than can possibly be articulated in the microwave world of cable TV “news” (or even a later radio interview I did with host Joe Scarborough about this subject), I wish to fully explain my thinking so that any confusion about where I stand may be as limited as possible.
First, the reason I went on MSNBC is that Joe Scarborough and I have had a running (and sometimes rather pointed) e-mail exchange about his coverage of Sarah Palin which was escalated when his show did a seemingly endless segment on how intellectually deficient she supposedly is. Joe has offered me an open invitation to “debate” that and other issues related to Palin when I am next in New York where his show is broadcast. Since Palin was on the “Tonight Show” last week and because I live in Burbank, we decided the occasion might make for a good opportunity to do a quick “preview” of coming attractions. I also made it clear to him that there was something about Palin that I have wanted to get off my chest for several weeks. This was the issue of what her intent and potential is for the 2012 presidential race.
When I first met Palin at her home in early 2009, after our interview for my documentary we had a rather lengthy conversation, which of course eventually turned to her political future. Unsolicited, I offered my very strong opinion that, thanks to the media’s worship of Obama and their unfair destruction of her, that I thought it would be foolhardy for her to even consider running against him in 2012. My advice at the time was for her to run for Senate in 2014 and run in 2016 for President when presumably there will be no incumbent running and when the narrative about her (thanks to the media’s love of a good “comeback”) would likely be vastly more positive than in 2012. Palin was clearly listening intently but said almost nothing in response. Those who witnessed the conversation said she did not seem to like what she was hearing.
However, after the remarkable success of her book and the incredible decline in Obama’s political popularity, I started to think that, with any luck, Palin could win the Republican nomination and that she would at least have a shot against The One, assuming the economy didn’t significantly improve. But now I am thoroughly convinced that while Obama is somewhat vulnerable (if the economy improves, he wins big, if it stays the same, he wins very small, if it gets worse, he loses big), Sarah Palin has less of a chance to beat him than just about anyone else who is currently considered in contention.
The reasons I have come to this painful conclusion are numerous.
that’s an intersting perspective. i like it.
Imagine the POWER with Sarah Palin in Washington DC in the House/Senate!!
Didn’t Hillary start her White House run there?
The Media wouldn’t know what to do with her,
that sexy figure, those knee-high boots and a BRAIN
to knock ‘em silly!!!
Hillary’s people are in a FRANTIC FRENZY hoping
Palin doesn’t go the Washington DC route!!
At this point the GOP could Run Barney the Dinosaur and win, and they know it.
Basically his idea is she should enter the Senate in 2015, and then immediately start running for the 2016 Presidential election.
Someöne else can explain why this is a good idea.
Well, now I know more about Ziegler than I did before, since this is the first time I’ve heard of him. I had a look at this and some of his other stuff at the web site. A real Palin supporter who has been disillusioned? I doubt it. I didn’t see anything in his article or his record that gives any weight to his views. All it tells me, yet again, is that a lot of people are desperate to derail Palin.
News for all of you; Sarah isn’t running—yet. We’re still in the House/Senate election cycle, and that’s the current priority.
I tend to agree Palin can’t win, but there’s one thing I question. He says Palin has negatives because of the media’s treatment of her and she won’t be able to change that...however, Obama once had high ratings, he’s now unpopular, and this is *despite* the media fawning over him...so, based on that, I don’t agree Palin can’t improve her popularity among the Great Unwashed.
I don’t think anyone has yet mentioned the prospect I consider most likely. First, if the economy is improving and the GOP has control of one or both houses of Congress, Obama’s personal popularity will rebound and the public, entirely comfortable with divided government, will reelect him with substantial margins. Palin will realize this and will not run in 2012.
If the economy is in shambles still in 2011-12, Obama will be easily beatable by a GOP candidate with solid experience in a governorship. American by then will be sick to death of our glib-talking empty suit president, and will go with competance and experience. I don’t know who that person will be, but I don’t think any of the major names currently bandied about fit: Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc. Perhaps Barbour, Daniels, or Pawlenty, or some other person who is not even on the radar at this time. Yes, those who love Palin (me included) will be disappointed, but not too much: she will again be the vice-presidential candidate, and will be well positioned in 2016 or 2020 to head the ticket, and even in 2020 will still be young enough to lead the country.
If the economy is only so-so, things are more difficult to predict, but even then I would support Palin. I’m not a great fan of letting the MSM and the hollywood left pick our candidates, or destroy those they feel most threatened by. Remember, they also vigorously attempted to portray Reagan as the amiable dunce.
Of course, 2012 is still a long way off, and any number of things could happen to totally change all these calculations. A major terrorist attack, for example, could thrust to the forefront a candidate with strong military cred (Petraeus, for example). The same could occur if by 2012 we are in a shooting war with Iran.
Anyway, I’m not so quick to write Palin off. American may yet have a President Palin in its future.
“Someone needs to give me the gist of what his argument is.”
Sure. Here goes: The gist is that the Leftist mainstream media has already formed a negative image of Palin in the minds of the middle Americans, the “undecideds” who swing the election one way or the other.
Sarah would need more than two year to get to be known to these voters. There isn’t enough money or time to convince them she is experienced and intelligent by 2012.
Thats all he’s saying. He’s a supporter of Governor Palin - a fan, really. I can tell that. He wants her to be President and is afraid that the obstacles that have been thrown in her way will stop her. Then she becomes known as a “loser”, for the next Presidential election in 2016. That’s the one he wants her to wait for.
My own take on this is that he’s being very fair and logical (he knows politics), but that nobody can predict what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone two or three years from now, and 2016 is certainly far enough away for the boy wonder in the White House to completely destroy America. We don’t have that much time.
I’m not convinced that Palin is ready.
I don’t see 2.5 years as a governor to be the draw some other people do. Palin may have the right instincts, but the right instincts don’t cut it without the proper experience.
Carter, Clinton, and Obama made it into the Oval Office mainly because folks didn’t know enough about these no-names until the election year. None of them were qualified to be president, and Carter and Clinton had been two term governors. Obama had even less executive experience than Palin.
What I’m trying to say, is that I don’t really care for inexperience on our own side any more than I care for it on the other side. Point to some success over a period of time, or don’t bother me.
I have stated this, because on point, I agree with Ziegler that she isn’t ready for prime time. That still doesn’t mean that I agree that Obama could beat her. By 2012, Obama is going to make Bush’s popularity numbers look good. This guy is sinking in the polls, and I don’t see a scenario where he recovers, short of saying I’m sorry and resigning. So unlike Ziegler, I think she beats Obama.
McCain carried about as much baggage as a guy could carry into 2008. Anyone with a quarter of a clue on the right, knew McCain was destined to get his ass handed to him. The only reason he didn’t, was Palin. I still say without her, he had 30% of the total vote. Even at that, McCain did not get swamped at the polls. He didn’t show well, but that’s not a McGovern, Goldwater, or Mondale loss.
Palin would not have the negative baggage McCain did. She would have the media trashing her. And some on the left would trash her. Still others would get behind her because she was the first woman candidate. The Right would get behind her. I don’t think independents who have seen Obama practically destroy this nation would see a level headed Conservative on the right as a huge threat. I don’t buy that at all.
Palin would pull in the right. She would pull in at least half the Independents, and she’d actually pull in some Democrat women. I must say I am still repulsed by the idea of a person becoming president because of their gender just as much as I was this jackass just because he was 1/2 black. And the margin Palin would win by would probably be close to the sympathetic gender vote. At least that’s how I see it.
Ziegler is wrong about whether she would win or not. I don’t believe he is wrong about her qualifications.
Folks, if we can’t find someone with decent experience that espouses the same Conservative ideals as Palin claims, then our nation is in a hurt locker of gigantic proportions.
What Ziegler also fails to address, is who do we run if not Palin? Giuliani? Romney? Huckabee? McCain again? That right there is where his logic falls to pieces. There isn’t anyone else widely known.
If Palin is the candidate, I’ll vote for her. I’m not going to champion someone at this point who is willing to check their Conservative credentials at the door and back a man like John McCain. That put her in no man’s land for me.
(((PING)))
John Ziegler is off his meds.
He so wants to be a player and now
will diss Sarah Palin for attention.
Bingo. He just wants Sarah to answer his emails...LOL.
Really poor article, and not thought out at all!
This fool doesn’t see that Obama cannot be reelected in 2012, and also is so ignorant about Sarah Palin that he fails to see that every media attack has simply made her stronger and more popular.
I truly have to question his motives and his integrity.
He is a Judasgoat at best, and likely worse. This is the enemy folks so get to know him well, and it will greatly benefit our cause.
Your points about Palin are well-taken. Zeigler’s points about Palin are not. He thinks it is mistake for Palin to cater to the Tea Party crowd and the Fox News crowd - but that is where the political dynamism is now. And it is silly to worrry about the MSM attacking her - I don’t know where he has been the last 46 years, but the MSM will attack ANY GOP nominee like a rabid weasel.
I don't think so either.
Ziegler is nobody, and is certainly no expert on any candidate execpt for possibly Romney who most likely has hired him.
Zeigler has been one of Palin’s defenders.
That's a pretty idiotic statement!
Are you a Romneyite, or an Obaminationist?
I'm sure there's a pony in that pile of horse manure! :)
Ziegler is a Ziegler sycophant, and sombody got him cheap!
Well he is not exactly a fool, and he has been very supportive of Sarah Palin from the get go. But you are right, 0bama is history. I just don't see how this loser gets re-elected in 2012. Unemployment in 2012 will still be very high(at least 7%), the budget deficits will still be sky high, and if 0bamcare passes, anger against 0bama will be as high as ever. Whoever the Republican candidate is in 2012, wins it.
The real question now is, who is going to win the Republican primaries?
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