Posted on 01/19/2010 5:45:54 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Bullish Views From Barron's Roundtable
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/18/2010 10:20 -0500
A summary recap of the bullish groupthink gripping the Barron's Roundtable. As David notes: "The emerging consensus is that everything is just going to be fine and that we should expect nothing more than a second-half economic slowdown, and that if there is a sharper turndown the monetary and fiscal spigots will be turned on even harder. The market is seen no worse than fair-value. Treasuries remain the enemy."
The age old question rises: with everyone bullish, who is selling?
* Felix Zulauf: “Cyclical forces are bullish … the market probably has 10% upside from here… my next recommendation is to short government bonds.”
* Abby Joseph Cohen: “We think global growth won’t be too bad in 2010 … we’re forecasting S&P 500 earnings of $75 to $76 this year and $90 next year.”
* Fred Hickey: “The stock market will likely be up this year, unless the dollar collapses.”
* Scott Black: “I figure S&P 500 earnings will be closer to $66, which puts the market at 17.3 times earnings, about the historic norm.”
* Oscar Schafer: “Liquidity and another stimulus package will keep the market up.”
* Marc Faber: “The S&P 500 won’t revisit the March 2009 low of 666 in nominal terms ever again.”
* Meryl Witmer: “Fifteen times earnings seems about right for the market, and earnings could grow a little this year … fair value isn’t so different from where the market is now.”
* Archie MacAllastar: “I’m an optimist, I expect the S&P to earn $75 to $80 this year. Public participation will increase.”
* Mario Gabelli: “You’ll be up 5% to 10% in the first half of the year … interest rates at some point will top 4%.”
* Scott Black: “The underpinnings of the economy aren’t quite as bleak as everyone thinks.”
Ping!
~~Harvard Economic Society, May 17, 1930
Hey BTW today's the last chance to get out of precious metals until the end of the month IMO. Overnight, Sydney was up, Hong Kong was up, then London -- where they are already paying off "Brown wins" bets -- set the high for the week, then everybody just started selling.
This probably means we should all liquidate our stock holdings immediately.
By the way, Abby's antics are getting really old. I suspect nobody cares about her anymore, because she does not provide any worthy insight into current situation, except mindless repeated perma-bull slogans. Everybody knows what she will say even before she opens her mouth.:-)
“Things will go up, unless they go down.” Things will get better, or else they’ll get worse. Stocks will gain, unless they decline.” ~ Diana in Wisconsin
Now. Where’s my fee for this brilliance? LOL!
“Things are going to get worse before they get better.” ~ Also, Me
That last one you can take to the bank. *WINK*
I find it bizarre that they can all ignore the 20% vacancy rate in commercial real-estate. How does that lead to anything but a collapse of commercial real-estate, much less sustainable profits at current levels?
Honey, inflation would be a godsend at this point. What we’re in for instead is much worse: deflation.
Falling salaries. Falling employment. Falling home values. Falling commercial real-estate. Falling stock market.
Eh. I lived through Carter. I can live through this. ;)
Yes. When the market is at fair value it is time to take some profits and park them to wait for the next down turn when you can get bargain prices.
Increasing food prices. Increasing oil prices. Increasing taxes.
No doubt!
Abby Joseph Cohen rings the bell yet again. She’s a better contrary indicator than Cramer.
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