Rasmussen - What What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? (Just Posted)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | January 18, 2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[Arec Barrwin]

What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen

Monday, January 18, 2010

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits. Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties… was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” writes The Politico’s Ben Smith, adding, “It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”

A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.

At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.

The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the president’s health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.

Brown’s position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.

Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.

Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidate’s debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.

While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.

Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.

That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.

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[SueRae]

I think this may hrlp voters for Scott to OT take anything for granted They are already way more motivated..and must remain so.

Go Scott!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[aruanan]

I’m sure the Obama/SEIU/Acorn poll will have it 60/35 Coakley/Brown by the time this is over.

[truth_seeker]

“He may have just committed professional suicide.”

Pollsters’ professional credibility doesn’t rest with one poll.

[vox_freedom]

At the end of a closely fought campaign, every successful outcome or loss comes down to three things:

turnout
turnout
turnout

[aruanan]

At the end of a closely fought campaign, every successful Democrat outcome or Republican loss comes down to three things:
turnout--of fake voters
turnout--of dead voters
turnout--of illegal alien voters.

[maine-iac7]

He probably polled more recently than last week, but is nervous about what it said, so spiked it.My guess.

That'd be my guess - no way he hasn't done another poll.

But he's going to be remembered for this - his reputation will be toast.

[vox_freedom]

Hey, that’s the ACORN secret strategy!!!

[Psalm 144]

Probably code for:
“Leftist election fraud could still steal this election”.

[Political Junkie Too]

Yup. That's what I've been posting today.

I'm guessing that he accurately predicted the feelings of the people who will vote.

However, I think he's afraid that when the "extra" votes are counted and the win goes to Coakley, people will question why the polls were so wrong, not that huge Democrat voter fraud took place.

Rasmussen doesn't want to be a part of that story.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I’m sure the Obama/SEIU/Acorn poll will have it 60/35 Coakley/Brown by the time this is over.

I'd like to see the breakdown that shows:

In-person voting: 65-35 Brown

Absentee Voting: 90-10 Coakley

Turnout > 120% in many precincts.

-PJ

[Psalm 144]

I gotta sick feeling. I suspect that those polled may have wanted to express their dismay at the current state of affairs, but Massachusetts is so liberal I am beginning to doubt that dismay will be reflected at the ballot box. Hoffman II coming.

I hope and pray I’m wrong.
*********************************

Respectfully (I am not trying to be contentious here) I do think you are wrong. We have been subjected to the longest sustained propaganda effort in recent American history. Part of the Obamachine MO is to attempt to completely demoralize opponents so that they quit trying.

The Obamachine deliberately tries to instill utter despair in opponents, and utter obeisance in followers. We have not seen this sort of alien demagogery in the US before, and we have had a lot of vile politicians in our history.

Anyway, if they had an ironclad lock they would NEVER have lost New Jersey. Are we out of the woods? No. But we are on our feet and beginning the counteroffensive.

Be strong, comrade. We can hope for the best while preparing for the worst. I am hoping and praying with you, and millions are doing the same.

[meadsjn]

Rasmussen is a push-poller for the commies.

[Anti-Bubba182]

If a pollster was going to duck an election this one is not a good choice. I wonder if he did not poll today because it is a holiday?

[Solitar]

So if you want to put your tinfoil hat on you might consider the possibility that Ras has a pretty good feel for the level of voter fraud that could be expected in this election and he knows that will throw off his poll. So he spikes his own poll just to preserve his reputation. Scary thought.

It's may be the truth. A helmet and not a tin foil hat.

Could the Rats use the polls to determine how many Fake votes they need to produce. Ras not giving them the information...(the time to produce the ballots must be done the night before the election to stuff the box in time......)

The Rats may want to invent only just enough votes, not too many to make it obvious they tried to steal the election. Thus they need very accurate polls.

Rasmussen may be denying the enemy that intel.

Or Rasmussen knows his polls are useless when up against massive election fraud.

[Windflier]

What prognostication? He basically just said “If you invade Persia, a great empire will be destroyed.” If Coakley wins, he can say “Yep, I called it—more Democrats showed up.” If Brown wins, he can say “Yep, I called it—Coakley was cooked unless more Democrats showed up.”

So, you agree with him basically saying that it can go one way, or the other, when other up-to-the-minute polls show that the Democrat in this race is cooked?

Do you really think that it's responsible for a recognized national pollster to do that? Maybe you don't care, but I can guarantee you that people who pay good money for his polling will look at what he's said quite a bit differently.

[Solitar]

You can’t have accurate polls when over 10% of the vote will be due to election fraud — votes by dead people who don’t answer polls.

[onyx]

Could the Rats use the polls to determine how many Fake votes they need to produce. Ras not giving them the information...(the time to produce the ballots must be done the night before the election to stuff the box in time......)
Hmmmm? /foil

Anything's possible. I am willing to take him at his word. I hadn't heard he was running a rolling poll in MA, so why would he have polling data posted today? I mean, was polling data on this race due today?

[RoseofTexas]

Excellent observation....I too smell a RAT a BIG BIG FAT Astronomical FRAUD coming to MA! Holy CHIT I hope Brown is wise and well prepared!

[Right Wing Assault]

Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up

Now why didn't I think of that? Guy's a genius!

[patriot08]

.

Don’t get over-confident. Keep working!
HELP SCOTT DEFEAT THE OBAMA SOCK PUPPET

(stole this from another FReeper, but bears repeating)

•People in ANY state can volunteer for the phone bank! http://www.resistnet.com/forum/topics/phone-calls-for-freedom-call-1?commentId=2600775%3AComment%3A1891491&xg_source=activity

•Anyone… Anywhere… Contribute! https://www.icontribute.us/scottbrown

•Live in or near MA? Volunteers still needed at many regional offices. If you can help, please email Laura@brownforussenate.com and she will tell you how.

•If you live in Massachusetts, become an election judge. In Boston they pay $135-$185 and they NEED Republican monitors.

Needed; military and retired law enforcement VFW and police organizations etc to monitor polls- prevent the voter fraud they’re plotting right now. Video tape everything; document everything; prosecute the perpetrators. http://www.cityofboston.gov/news/default.aspx?id=3599