Rasmussen - What What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? (Just Posted)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | January 18, 2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[Gorzaloon]

Jeezzz you need to ask? The guy is in the RAT’s pocket!! His polls of late on the DEAR LEADER have been all over the map...SMELL IT!! The guy is a phony!

No, I suspect he was Talked To.

"Your site was down this morning. It can be down a LOT, you know..."

[SeattleBruce]

To be fair, on Monday morning it was 60 to 43, but hardly close as Rasmussen said...:)

If you ask me, I think Ras wished he’d done one more poll...:)

[SeattleBruce]

“He may have just committed professional suicide.”

I don’t think this is true. I just don’t think he showed up for this last round. And an important round it is!

But to be fair:

The relative polling accuracy of Rasmussen.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

[1_Rain_Drop]

My impression was that Ras meant Monday Jan 11, not today.

[left that other site]

“It ain’t over until it’s over.” Yogi Berra

This classic quote reminds me of the time I forced myself (A Dramatic Soprano) to watch the ENTIRE Ring Cycle on PBS.
On the 4th night of this marathon, 12 hour Wagnerian Opera, there was a Humongous Finale, with lasers and smoke and drums crashing and horns blaring! It was the Twighlight of the Gods! WOW! What a GREAT Ending. Surely it was over...Then the Curtains parted...And THE FAT LADY SANG!!!!!

And Thus:

It Ain't Over Till The Fat Lady Sings!

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Sane and decent people hope for a Brown victory. However, the foul have their legions and in all likelihood they have risen from their graves and are voting for the Dem. early and often. If it is close the harridan shall win.

[left that other site]

This Fat lady:

[OldDeckHand]

"However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout."

Isn't that true in any election? And, isn't it the job of the competent pollster to account for and predict what that turnout will - I believe the word they use is "intensity". I noticed that none of the pollsters had any problems predicting (accurately, I may add) the increased turnout in black and youth voters in the last Presidential election. Why the sudden hesitancy to predict turnout or intensity in this election? Something doesn't smell right.

It seems clear, even to the casual observer, that all the intensity lies squarely with Brown and his supporters.

[Frantzie]

Scott sort of toned down his Obama polls because the numbers were so bad. Something is rotten just like the mass invasion from Haiti that Obama is doing right now while people are feeling so compassionate.

Someone got to Rasmussen.

[Carley]

Ras has been threatened by the maoists.

[InterceptPoint]

He probably polled more recently than last week, but is nervous about what it said, so spiked it.My guess.

My feeling as well.

Rasmussen is a smart guy and he knows that we expected a poll from him today. That's why he's writing this CYA article and appearing on Fox News. I think he smells a rat. The polling just doesn't look right to him for some reason. And remember, he has polling data from MA for several elections so he can look back and compare what he is seeing now with previous polls and previous outcomes.

So if you want to put your tinfoil hat on you might consider the possibility that Ras has a pretty good feel for the level of voter fraud that could be expected in this election and he knows that will throw off his poll. So he spikes his own poll just to preserve his reputation. Scary thought.

[Lexinom]

Does anyone else smell "payoff"?

It's a generally understood fact of organizational science that people will work hardest with the odds of success and failure stand even.

[dforest]

Exactly. Scott even looks sick in his latest FOX appearances.

Something ain’t right.

[Tzimisce]

What will happen on Tues?

The court battle in which Coakley steals the seat begins....

[alrea]

Reads as if Rasmussen received a call

ping

[maine-iac7]

On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite

Wow! Not only is he denying the great surge in the last week for Brown but he says "On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite..."

Is he counting on most people not knowing what Intrade is - and/or people won;t check his assertion?

Good gravy = this morning, Intrade was runnin mid 60's Brown to 30's Coakley - and quickly moved to mid 70's Brown, mid 20's Coakley. Slight?

Rasmussen has jumped the shark...

[the invisib1e hand]

“Go not to the Elves for council, for they will tell you both yes and no.” (Frodo Baggins)

maybe I should reread it...

[RedMDer]

“If turnout remains low, he is likely to win.”
Dear Lord,
Please, may I ask for snow?

[Rockitz]

I gotta sick feeling. I suspect that those polled may have wanted to express their dismay at the current state of affairs, but Massachusetts is so liberal I am beginning to doubt that dismay will be reflected at the ballot box. Hoffman II coming.

I hope and pray I’m wrong.

[SmokingJoe]