Skip to comments.Rasmussen - What What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? (Just Posted)
Posted on 01/18/2010 5:08:27 PM PST by Arec Barrwin
What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen
Monday, January 18, 2010
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits. Prior to that release, The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties was that Martha Coakley was a lock, writes The Politicos Ben Smith, adding, It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.
A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.
At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.
The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the presidents health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.
Browns position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.
Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.
Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidates debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.
While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.
Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. Thats why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
Thats a long way around saying that were right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.
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“Go not to the Elves for council, for they will tell you both yes and no.” (Frodo Baggins)
I see he’s backing up what he said on Hannity today, in writing (and still using his old polling numbers of a week ago).
Right on Ras. We’ll see how accurate your analysis is tomorrow night.
You just bet your reputation on it.
Seriously? mentions Intrade where a Soros type could place a big bet and sway prices? And Close? Two points? I generally respect their polls but will respectfully disagree and say 6-7% as i’ve said for the past week. Surprising that Rassmuessen would be the outlier.
Say what Scott?
Someone could have made a lot of money on InTrade watching Rasmussen. I wish I had an account. Brown could have been bought for under $5 when this race started to turn. Brown was still trading at just $20 when the race became neck and neck. It has only been the last couple days when Brown shot over $50 when many polls are suggesting a double digit lead. Brown should be trading over $90 right now. Coakley is cooked.
What a cop out.
Jeezzz you need to ask? The guy is in the RAT’s pocket!! His polls of late on the DEAR LEADER have been all over the map...SMELL IT!! The guy is a phony!
call for Brown tonight and tomorrow.. go vote if you can
Try 75%:26% for Scott Brown.
That's not what I would call a “slight favorite”.
This is a pretty pathetic article from Scott Rasmussen.
He is using an out of date, week old poll figures, and he couldn't even be bothered conduct a poll today or even check the latest Intrade figures before posting his article.
Intrade predicts for Brown 75 to 26. That is more than a “slight favorite”.
Ras just bet the farm on this prognostication, and with NO recent polling data from his organization to back it up.
He may have just committed professional suicide.
Ok, Scott... So, you don’t want to pony up new polling numbers... You’re staking your reputation on last weeks numbers?
“were right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll.”
Very dishonest to pontificate this way when he’s using week-old polling data. He should just be honest and say he can’t state where the race is today but other polls taken since his poll of last week show Brown continuing to gain steam.
A very thorough, detailed Rasmussen poll is due out Wednesday I believe.
Could it be that Ras got a bit shaken up by the Dems’ recent barrage of criticism of his polls. Perhaps he’s figuring, “Hey, why not be ambivalent and equivocal - that way I really can’t lose and can’t be called a tool of the right?”.
Just a thought...
He probably polled more recently than last week, but is nervous about what it said, so spiked it.My guess.
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