Posted on 12/11/2009 2:38:29 AM PST by Scanian
The Democrats hold 258 U. S House seats, the Republicans 177. In the last two cycles (2006 and 2008) the Democrats gained a net 55 House seats. To win back control in 2010 the GOP will need to pick up a net 41 seats. Can they do it?
It is likely the GOP will lose some seats it now holds in the 2010 races. Even in the GOP sweep in 1994, when the party picked up a net 54 seats, Democrats won 4 GOP-held seats. The single most vulnerable Republican-held seat (in reality, the single most vulnerable seat for either Party) is that of Joseph Cao, in Lousiana 2, a district Barack Obama carried by 75% to 23% in 2008, and where African Americans are 60% of the District's residents. The GOP will be hard pressed to defend three open seats: Delaware's open seat (Mike Castle), Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk's seat), and Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach's seat). Obama won Delaware by 25%, Illinois 10 by 23%, and Pennsylvania 6 by 17%. Several Republican incumbents had tough races in 2008 and could face solid challenges again next year. Dave Reichert in Washington 8 and Ken Calvert in California 44 are two of a small number of such potentially vulnerable incumbents.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The dynamics right now are very much unlike most other election cycles, IMHO. Anything can happen.
True. The average voter has a very short attention span. If the economy improves to a reasonably good level the scum will retain their edge, easily.
Amnesty for illegal immigrants will also create a ton of new pro-leftist voters, and socialized medicine will also make many people addicted to keeping socialism ongoing throughout the U.S. The time for a serious conservative comeback was during the November ‘08 election, but it didn’t happen. With all of the leftist legislation that is and will be put into place before the November ‘10 election and before the November ‘12 election, it will probably be many decades of socialism, before conservatism will make any kind of serious political comeback in the U.S. I really do hope that I’m wrong about these predictions.
I think this guy is whistling past the graveyard. He lists KY-3 and IN-9 as uphill fights for the Republicans Both of those are swing districts, and they will swing back to Republicans next year. Count on it.
How likely is that? With $1.7 trillion in deficit spending that does no good, the socialists have no choices that even have a potential to work. The one thing that would solve the problem - less government - is not open to consideration.
Prediction: Enormous numbers of Americans are both angry and very depressed about where the nation is headed - even more so than anyone is admitting; thus, the Democrats are gonna get their *sses royally kicked both in 2010 and 2012.
Run Tea party candidates (Mothers) against long held seats. That the Republican will not challenge there should be no unchallenged Democrat seat next year! Tea Party will most likely caucus with the Republics. People will vote for them just because they are mad when they would not vote for a Republican. Control must be taken from the Democrats for our country to survive!
If real Republicans run, yes. If a bunch of moderate wusses run, no. I think Rubio said these elections will be a “costume party” with a bunch of McCain-Graham types masquerading as conservatives to win, only to revert to useless cross-the-aisle weanies once they get to DC.
My concern is you are right-—I do think the GOP will win a huge number, perhaps 40-50 seats-—and that it won’t be enough to undo the damage Zero has already done. IF we can win the majority with die-hard conservatives, there is a chance. But if we have to get the majority through a bunch of Chris Shays, well, yeah, we can get the majority and have it make no difference at all.
Si, se puede.
Only if they stay right of center. They have to speak out against the corruption and call zero out on his lobbyists.
The GOP can win seats if they stop fronting the blue blood, progressive types. There are several they still have as their candidate of choice. The party leaders learned absolutely nothing from Scozzafava!
This theory rests on the assumption that this is a typical off year election which it is not. In Delaware a recent special election saw a big upset in a state legislature seat Democrats controlled for decades. The Ky results from Tuesday said the same message. In 1994 voters were angry. In 2010 voters will be rabid. There will be no bright spots for the evil donkey.
The raises themselves were appropriate -- the stimulus law set aside money for Head Start salary increases -- but converting that number into jobs proved difficult. The Obama administration told Head Start officials to consider a fraction of each employee as a job saved.They're going to those lengths without an election on the line. Imagine how much they'll be cooking the books with one on the line.
Source: http://www.sltrib.com/nationworld/ci_13710857
You are wise. I totally agree that this will be unlike any other election. It will be the Tea Party vs. Acorn election.
Off year elections are notoriously lower turnout and that could bode well for Conservative candidates.
November is a long time away and the treasury still has money (theoretically) for the dems to throw around to continue their occupation of our country. The RNC has to start lining up lawyers as election observers in every district and they need to contest every close election and cry foul about every lose. The light needs to be shed on the democrat vote manufacturing scheme and they need to have cameras rolling at every polling place to prove the fraud that is rampant.
That's the point though - we have passed the point where independents and Republicans take anything the government or media say seriously. There is no point in cooking the books when only their rock solid supporters (the corrupt and the dead) believe in their claims, and those votes are already locked in. I also suspect that Sarah will carry more weight than all the mainstream media outlets combined, and she's got a way of phrasing the conservative perspective so that it's hard for the media to cover up the truth.
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