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Can the GOP Win Back the House?
The American Thinker ^ | December 11, 2009 | Richard Baehr

Posted on 12/11/2009 2:38:29 AM PST by Scanian

The Democrats hold 258 U. S House seats, the Republicans 177. In the last two cycles (2006 and 2008) the Democrats gained a net 55 House seats. To win back control in 2010 the GOP will need to pick up a net 41 seats. Can they do it?

It is likely the GOP will lose some seats it now holds in the 2010 races. Even in the GOP sweep in 1994, when the party picked up a net 54 seats, Democrats won 4 GOP-held seats. The single most vulnerable Republican-held seat (in reality, the single most vulnerable seat for either Party) is that of Joseph Cao, in Lousiana 2, a district Barack Obama carried by 75% to 23% in 2008, and where African Americans are 60% of the District's residents. The GOP will be hard pressed to defend three open seats: Delaware's open seat (Mike Castle), Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk's seat), and Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach's seat). Obama won Delaware by 25%, Illinois 10 by 23%, and Pennsylvania 6 by 17%. Several Republican incumbents had tough races in 2008 and could face solid challenges again next year. Dave Reichert in Washington 8 and Ken Calvert in California 44 are two of a small number of such potentially vulnerable incumbents.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; democrats; gopcomeback; liberalagenda; openseats; republicans
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1 posted on 12/11/2009 2:38:30 AM PST by Scanian
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To: Scanian

The dynamics right now are very much unlike most other election cycles, IMHO. Anything can happen.


2 posted on 12/11/2009 2:43:26 AM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

True. The average voter has a very short attention span. If the economy improves to a reasonably good level the scum will retain their edge, easily.


3 posted on 12/11/2009 2:48:31 AM PST by Scotsman will be Free (11C - Indirect fire, infantry - High angle hell - We will bring you, FIRE)
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To: Scanian

Amnesty for illegal immigrants will also create a ton of new pro-leftist voters, and socialized medicine will also make many people addicted to keeping socialism ongoing throughout the U.S. The time for a serious conservative comeback was during the November ‘08 election, but it didn’t happen. With all of the leftist legislation that is and will be put into place before the November ‘10 election and before the November ‘12 election, it will probably be many decades of socialism, before conservatism will make any kind of serious political comeback in the U.S. I really do hope that I’m wrong about these predictions.


4 posted on 12/11/2009 2:55:04 AM PST by johnthebaptistmoore (If leftist legislation that's already in place really can't be ended by non-leftists, then what?)
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To: Scanian

I think this guy is whistling past the graveyard. He lists KY-3 and IN-9 as uphill fights for the Republicans Both of those are swing districts, and they will swing back to Republicans next year. Count on it.


5 posted on 12/11/2009 3:02:22 AM PST by rmh47 (Go Kats! - Got Seven? [NRA Life Member])
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To: Scotsman will be Free
If the economy improves to a reasonably good level the scum will retain their edge, easily.

How likely is that? With $1.7 trillion in deficit spending that does no good, the socialists have no choices that even have a potential to work. The one thing that would solve the problem - less government - is not open to consideration.

6 posted on 12/11/2009 3:17:47 AM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Scanian

Prediction: Enormous numbers of Americans are both angry and very depressed about where the nation is headed - even more so than anyone is admitting; thus, the Democrats are gonna get their *sses royally kicked both in 2010 and 2012.


7 posted on 12/11/2009 3:23:08 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: Scanian

Run Tea party candidates (Mothers) against long held seats. That the Republican will not challenge there should be no unchallenged Democrat seat next year! Tea Party will most likely caucus with the Republics. People will vote for them just because they are mad when they would not vote for a Republican. Control must be taken from the Democrats for our country to survive!


8 posted on 12/11/2009 3:23:24 AM PST by jroneil (2010 is all that matter now!)
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To: johnthebaptistmoore
Amnesty for illegal immigrants will also create a ton of new pro-leftist voters

Unless they come up with an amnesty program that also gives them instant citizenship rather than just legal residency, this won't be immediately true. In the long run, we'll have more socialist voters because of the children of these immigrants, but we would have had that regardless thanks to the current judicial philosophy of granting citizenship to anchor babies.
9 posted on 12/11/2009 3:48:24 AM PST by fr_freak
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To: Scanian

If real Republicans run, yes. If a bunch of moderate wusses run, no. I think Rubio said these elections will be a “costume party” with a bunch of McCain-Graham types masquerading as conservatives to win, only to revert to useless cross-the-aisle weanies once they get to DC.


10 posted on 12/11/2009 3:52:09 AM PST by wny
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To: Jack Hammer

My concern is you are right-—I do think the GOP will win a huge number, perhaps 40-50 seats-—and that it won’t be enough to undo the damage Zero has already done. IF we can win the majority with die-hard conservatives, there is a chance. But if we have to get the majority through a bunch of Chris Shays, well, yeah, we can get the majority and have it make no difference at all.


11 posted on 12/11/2009 3:54:50 AM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: rmh47
I hope to God you're right about Yarmuth. I have a friend that is working with the GOP candidate and Yarmuth will be tough to dump. If the West End stays home maybe.
12 posted on 12/11/2009 3:57:25 AM PST by Recon Dad ( SSgt O - 3rd Afghanistan Deployment - Day 52)
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To: Scanian

Si, se puede.


13 posted on 12/11/2009 3:59:24 AM PST by Jim Noble (Hu's the communist?)
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To: Scanian

Only if they stay right of center. They have to speak out against the corruption and call zero out on his lobbyists.


14 posted on 12/11/2009 4:08:55 AM PST by jersey117
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To: Scanian

The GOP can win seats if they stop fronting the blue blood, progressive types. There are several they still have as their candidate of choice. The party leaders learned absolutely nothing from Scozzafava!


15 posted on 12/11/2009 4:17:50 AM PST by EmilyGeiger (The problem with socialism, is eventually you run out of other people's money. Margaret Thatcher)
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To: Scanian

This theory rests on the assumption that this is a typical off year election which it is not. In Delaware a recent special election saw a big upset in a state legislature seat Democrats controlled for decades. The Ky results from Tuesday said the same message. In 1994 voters were angry. In 2010 voters will be rabid. There will be no bright spots for the evil donkey.


16 posted on 12/11/2009 4:26:44 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Pollster1; Scotsman will be Free
The lying statists governmen will throw around money next year like it's a ticker tape parade while the SRM tells the drones how wonderful things are based on what those liars tell them. Keep in mind those same liars are the ones who who have been telling us how the porkulus bill created jobs because saving a job is a new job. They have even gone so far as a reverse 3/5 in calculating fractions of people to make more people so they can claim even more jobs saved which means more jobs created:
The raises themselves were appropriate -- the stimulus law set aside money for Head Start salary increases -- but converting that number into jobs proved difficult. The Obama administration told Head Start officials to consider a fraction of each employee as a job saved.
Source: http://www.sltrib.com/nationworld/ci_13710857
They're going to those lengths without an election on the line. Imagine how much they'll be cooking the books with one on the line.
17 posted on 12/11/2009 4:30:17 AM PST by Dahoser (Separation of church and state? No, we need separation of media and state.)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

You are wise. I totally agree that this will be unlike any other election. It will be the Tea Party vs. Acorn election.
Off year elections are notoriously lower turnout and that could bode well for Conservative candidates.


18 posted on 12/11/2009 4:46:09 AM PST by kempster
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To: All

November is a long time away and the treasury still has money (theoretically) for the dems to throw around to continue their occupation of our country. The RNC has to start lining up lawyers as election observers in every district and they need to contest every close election and cry foul about every lose. The light needs to be shed on the democrat vote manufacturing scheme and they need to have cameras rolling at every polling place to prove the fraud that is rampant.


19 posted on 12/11/2009 4:50:55 AM PST by newnhdad (The longest of journeys begins with one step.)
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To: Dahoser
They're going to those lengths without an election on the line. Imagine how much they'll be cooking the books with one on the line.

That's the point though - we have passed the point where independents and Republicans take anything the government or media say seriously. There is no point in cooking the books when only their rock solid supporters (the corrupt and the dead) believe in their claims, and those votes are already locked in. I also suspect that Sarah will carry more weight than all the mainstream media outlets combined, and she's got a way of phrasing the conservative perspective so that it's hard for the media to cover up the truth.

20 posted on 12/11/2009 5:26:51 AM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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