Free Republic

Republicans are now leading in 47 congressional districts held by Democrats. (This is up 8 just since last week.) There are another 5 seats held by retiring Democrats in significantly Republican-leaning districts which have not been polled. That's a total of 52 seats, almost equal to the number gained by Republicans in the 1994 election (54). There are another 20 where Republicans have pulled very close to Democrats, and the Democrats are polling well below 50%, normally a sign of grave danger this early in the election season. And of course, although the media tend to poll the races where...

CQ POLITICS NEWS Aug. 8, 2010 – 10:35 p.m. Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats By Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Contributing Writer Competitive open seats usually follow the direction of the overall cycle, so with House Republicans poised for large gains, it should be no surprise that most of the open seats that flip will be headed their way. The districts at the top of the list are more likely to flip, with at least the first half-dozen looking like no-brainers. Tennessee’s 6th. Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon ’s retirement hands this seat to state Sen. Diane Black, who won Thursday’s...

The Democrats hold 258 U. S House seats, the Republicans 177. In the last two cycles (2006 and 2008) the Democrats gained a net 55 House seats. To win back control in 2010 the GOP will need to pick up a net 41 seats. Can they do it? It is likely the GOP will lose some seats it now holds in the 2010 races. Even in the GOP sweep in 1994, when the party picked up a net 54 seats, Democrats won 4 GOP-held seats. The single most vulnerable Republican-held seat (in reality, the single most vulnerable seat for either...