Economy appears to be losing steam (It's beginning to look like a 'W' curve)

Marketwatch ^ | 11/24/2009 | Irwin Kellner

[SeekAndFind]

It's beginning to look a lot like a "W."

After logging the fastest rate of growth in two years last quarter, the economy appears to be losing steam during the current period.

This is no big surprise; the consensus of forecasters surveyed weekly by MarketWatch has long been expecting slower growth during the fourth quarter.

Their latest projections call for a growth rate of 2.5% -- a percentage point slower than the government's preliminary take on the previous quarter. (See Economic Calendar.)

There's plenty of evidence that our panel may be right -- if not a tad optimistic. For one thing, total consumer spending -- the biggest single chunk of the economy -- fell in September for the first time in four months and by the biggest percentage since December 2008.

In October, retail sales excluding autos grew 60% slower than they did during the previous month, while preliminary reports for November show that consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.

If you look closely you can see why consumers are pulling in their horns.

For one thing, personal incomes are barely growing as businesses have trimmed hours worked and cut wages and salaries. For another, employment continues to fall as the jobless rate edges ever closer to the postwar record of 10.8% set in November 1982.

The duration of unemployment as a percent of the labor force is the highest in at least a quarter of a century. More people are being forced to work part-time and/or beneath their skill level while the job openings rate is the lowest in recent memory.

This will continue as long as business can rely on increased productivity and outsourcing to take care of its needs.

[AD from SpringBay]

The final two squirts of the ‘cash for clunkers,’ piss-away are gone. Now what?

[Right Wing Assault]

Obama will say, “This is proof that it is ‘W’s fault.”

[Sacajaweau]

If you subsidize “growth”...then there was no growth. It’s a net loss.

[4rcane]

it looks like toilet shape to me

[Bobalu]

[Obadiah]

Hmmm...MarketWatch. They are camp Obama. Now they are forced to report the obvious as well, something most here already knew. As I witnessed many here predicting, the quarterly growth number of 3.5% was revised downward, just as predicted. The big growth in that quarter was the cash-for-clunkers and other government smoke and mirrors — just as predicted.

Obama is a failure. Here's my proposed 2012 bumper sticker:

ANOTHER UNEMPLOYED FOR OBAMA!

[Obadiah]

Hmmm...MarketWatch. They are camp Obama. Now they are forced to report the obvious as well, something most here already knew. As I witnessed many here predicting, the quarterly growth number of 3.5% was revised downward, just as predicted. The big growth in that quarter was the cash-for-clunkers and other government smoke and mirrors — just as predicted.

Obama is a failure. Here's my proposed 2012 bumper sticker:

ANOTHER UNEMPLOYED FOR OBAMA!

[pburgh01]

But didn't you see a board of Economists,.. no let's use AGW hoaxers language..”an undeniable and sizable majority of economist” think job growth is around the corner. David Obey wants a 5% war tax on small business owners in addition to the healthcare tax, happy days are here again. Cloward and Piven baby!

[NewJerseyJoe]

P4L

[Right Wing Assault]

Now what?

How 'bout 6 or 8 MORE 'cash for clunkers?'

Maybe one a month?

[skeeter]

What “steam”?

[DManA]

It’s not a w either. What’s that cliff shaped letter?

[ClearCase_guy]

the jobless rate edges ever closer to the postwar record of 10.8% set in November 1982.

It's going to REALLY sting when the "official" jobless rate goes to 10.9%.

[bicyclerepair]

Geez little Timmy, this is the first Christmas under comrade zerO and Mommy and Daddy can’t afford presents this year.

[blam]

"ANOTHER UNEMPLOYED FOR OBAMA! "

How about, RE-ELECT NO-NONE!

[Sgt_Schultze]

obama has the cure for what's ailing business ... raise taxes and mandates on employers, insist they pay for more fringe benefits or fine the company. State governments can raise unemployment taxes on businesses and raise filing fees and business taxes.

Yep, that'll make businesses lean and they'll surely hire more employees.

[bonehead4freedom]

Let's see we're going to raise taxes on anyone earning over $150,000 a year and now the talk is adding a surcharge tax to "fight" the Afgan war.Now since this income group are the biggest investors of both small business and investors in capital generating market instruments, I wonder why the economy isn't growing? I know!Lets charge a tax on people earning more the $100,000 a year and add a 5% surcharge to anyone earning more than $110,000 a year and increase stimulus spending that will fire both growth and full employment!

[JohnQ1]

It won’t be remembered as a recession if it becomes a long “|________”.

[MNlurker]

How bout F for F*****...