Posted on 10/26/2009 12:55:40 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON – Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book.
Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.
The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It's been a while since the super-hot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Another debunking can be found at:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/10/26/ap-impact-statisticians-reject-global-cooling/#more-389
Bottom line: All data sets show a cooling over the last 8 years and satellites show a cooling trend for the last 12 years.
“A strong early season storm” in the Rockies.
How to lie by statistics 101: Start with 1980.
If you start at 1950 the trend is a lot less steep.
“AP controlled the data. That’s far from blind or unbiased. “
EXactly!
2008 was cooler than 1998, so it ‘got cooler’.
2008 was warmer than 1988 so ‘no cooling trend’.
ROFL!
“the AP gave temperature data”
After long analysis (about 30 seconds) I believe I’ve found the source of the issue. What dataset did the AP use? I’d bet dollars to donuts (maybe a good deal these days actually) that it was the NASA GISS dataset. That dataset, whether through malice or stupidity, is consistently the “warmest” of the major worldwide temperature measurements. Interestingly, NASA insists on using surface stations rather than the more accurate satellite data.
If you look at either direct ocean temperature measurements, or sea level rise rates, it’s clear the oceans are cooling. Every global warming computer model puts 80% of the heat energy in the oceans.
bump
That's what you do if you want "Friendly Data"...that fits your agenda....
ROTFLMAO
2008 was cooler than 1998, so it ‘got cooler’.
2008 was warmer than 1988 so ‘no cooling trend’.
Exactly correct as well.
If you watch, the warmers often post information, graphs and trends starting in the mid to late 1970's. This is because we had about four decades of global cooling that ended in the mid to late 1970's.
If you compare 1976 to 1998, the climate is warming.
If you compare 1934 to 1998, the climate is cooling ever so slightly and has continued a slight cooling trend since.
But believe it or not, that's over the head of some folks. In fact, if you'd plotted the same numbers as polling data, I guarantee we'd see several FReepers claiming that the one point is an obvious outlier, and that there's a definite rising trend if you took that out or if you look at any other dateas a basepoint.
By judiciously selecting the time period and the dataset, you can make a case or cooling, warming, or neither.As your source points out, the folks who claim that there's been cooling are cherry-picking their data.
As the story points out, they used the “cooling trenders’” favored dataset and still found no cooling trend.
I’m sorry...I wasn’t laughing with you as much as I was laughing at you...but I’ll be nice.
You’re right of course, but there has been statistically significant cooling on every data set for the last few years. If it continues like most think it will for the next 20 to 30 years we are going to be in for some hard times...possibly famine.
Let’s put this all in perspective. The real question should be is the warming we saw in the 20th century unusual or outside the norm. The answer is definitely “no”.
If we look at the geologic record we know that there have been warmer times than we have now. The Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, and the Medieval Warm period come to mind. There are of course many other periods as well.
People need to come to grips with that fact. They also need to realize that this planet is a warm and wet one. There has only been ice on the poles for less than 20% of the earth’s history.
The only way to overcome the statistics and emphasize cooling is to have a preconceived notion about the data and specifically select it.Or, select a more representative 'medium' to sample, e.g. the oceans instead of land/surface stations (which have THEIR issues with aging/uncertified instrumentation, siting issues, encroching urban/UHI effects, GISS adjustments) ...
Pielke Senior had this, in part, to say on this subject:
This article, however, (which is not a true independent assessment if the study was completed by NOAA scientists) -- is not based on the much more robust metric assessment of global warming as diagnosed by upper ocean heat content.
Nor does it consider the warm bias issues with respect to surface land temperatures that we have raised in our peer reviewed papers; e.g. see and see.
Yeah, what he said ... LOL!
they used the “cooling trenders’” favored dataset and still found no cooling trend.That is simply preposterous on its face and impossible in its accomplishment ...
But I'm glad you said so.
Don’t you hate the way the AP treats us like we are stupid. They set-up a strawman.
No one is claiming there is a cooling trend for the last 130 years. Idiots.
What are the temps doing lately? Hmmmm...is the downward trend about to falsify the theory that elevated CO2 is causing warmer temperatures?
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