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To: I got the rope
Yeah, I know, it sounds funny that it has to be stated so explicitly, but many FReepers don't really get the concept (that concept, and the idea that if you can't take out any one data point and still get the same "trend," then your trend is likely just the result of cherry-picking the data (like how--as is pointed out in the story--this supposed "cooling trend" requires selection of a specific year as the start year, a specific dataset, a specific length of comparison, etc. Any variation of these and the "cooling trend" disappears, which is a good indication that it's not likely a true trend.

But believe it or not, that's over the head of some folks. In fact, if you'd plotted the same numbers as polling data, I guarantee we'd see several FReepers claiming that the one point is an obvious outlier, and that there's a definite rising trend if you took that out or if you look at any other dateas a basepoint.

71 posted on 10/27/2009 7:09:35 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: Gondring

I’m sorry...I wasn’t laughing with you as much as I was laughing at you...but I’ll be nice.

You’re right of course, but there has been statistically significant cooling on every data set for the last few years. If it continues like most think it will for the next 20 to 30 years we are going to be in for some hard times...possibly famine.

Let’s put this all in perspective. The real question should be is the warming we saw in the 20th century unusual or outside the norm. The answer is definitely “no”.

If we look at the geologic record we know that there have been warmer times than we have now. The Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, and the Medieval Warm period come to mind. There are of course many other periods as well.

People need to come to grips with that fact. They also need to realize that this planet is a warm and wet one. There has only been ice on the poles for less than 20% of the earth’s history.


74 posted on 10/27/2009 8:39:14 PM PDT by I got the rope
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