"Democrats" could face severe losses in 2010 governors' races

My own research ^ | 9/10/09 | Dangus

[dangus]

DEMOCRAT INCUMBENT

Arkansas (Beebe): Safe D

Colorado (Ritter): Leans R

Illinois (Quinn): Leans R ***

Iowa (Culver): Leans R

Maryland (O'Malley): Likely D

Massachusetts (Patrick): Leans R

New York (Patterson): Tossup ***

Ohio (Strickland): Tossup

DEMOCRAT-HELD OPEN SEAT

Kansas: Likely R

Maine: Leans D*

Michigan: Leans R

New Mexico: Likely D

Oklahoma: Likely R

Oregon: Leans D*

Pennsylvania: Tossup*

Tennessee: Leans R

Wisconsin: Tossup*

Wyoming: leans D**

REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEAT

Alabama: Safe R

California: Tossup

Florida: Likely R

Hawaii: Likely D

Rhode Island: Leans D*

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Likely R

REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT

Alaska (Parnell): Likely R

Arizona (Brewer): Unknown*

Connecticut (Rell): Safe R

Idaho (Otter): Safe R

Nebraska (Heineman): Safe R

Nevada (Gibbobs): Leans R ***

Texas (Perry): Safe R

Utah (Herbert): Likely R*

I don't claim any inside knowledge or special insight into local situations; these predictions are based on any available polling data, statewide voting trends, and news accounts about potential candidates. I welcome any alternate opinions, or further information about local circumstances. All speculation weighs outcomes of various match-ups and eligibilities according to cumulative likelihoods.

* Insufficient polling data for individual candidates; supposition based on trends of popularity of parties.

** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.

*** Governor's party is more likely to retain control if the incumbent is ousted in primary.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Don't know who the Republicans will run in Michigan but it almost doesn't matter. We have all been "blown away" by Jenny G.

Literally.

We have been bleeding people so fast it isn't funny anymore.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.

They will be sorry if they do that.

My DH thinks that people should only be allowed to hold TWO elected offices in their lifetime. I am starting to agree with him.

[BillyBoy]

I'd say it's hard to rate a lot of these states as "lean R" "lean D" or "tossup" when the outcome of both parties primaries are for grabs. In a lot of swing states, the likelihood of one party winning depends on what kind of candidate they nomination. Of course the easiest one to analyze will be my own state since I follow that race so closely.

Let's see here...

IL - Well, on the RAT side it's going to be a brutal primary between Quinn and slick talking pampered politician's kid, state Comptroller Dan Hynes (I wrongly predicted Hynes would beat Obama in the 2004 RAT primary for Senate). Oddly enough the race will be about the perception that Quinn is too much of an insider and tainted by Blago, where the in reality the opposite is true -- Hynes is the party insider and the ultimate combiner. Right now Quinn has a 49% approval-47% disapproval with voters, certainly vulnerable in both the primary and the general. On the GOP side, I suppose combiner Dillard is the slight favorite now due to clout and support from heavy hitters like Jim Thompson, but it's possible to take him out in the primary and the field is wide open with everyone except Andjewski and Schillerstorm having a decent chance of winning the nomination at this point. In certain circumstances -- say a Matt Murphy (R) vs. Pat Quinn (D) race, I would put it as a "lean R", but given the fact the IL GOP is a joke and always manages to shoot themselves in the foot, I'm going to assume lean D at this point in time.

MA - Surprisingly, I would say Tim Cahill (Independent, former Dem) is the favorite at this point, since voters are fed up with Deval Patrick but I doubt they will be willing to return to RINO rule after the whole 1991-2007 RINO era fresh on voters minds, plus Republicans hardly ever win in this state it's amazing that RINOs held the office for 16 years.

NY - Paterson is toast if he's the RAT nominee, but I'm guessing Cuomo runs and takes out Paterson in the primary. I don't see any Republican besides Rudy being able to defeat the Cuomo dynasty.

OH - Ohio has been THE biggest swing state in the nation to determine "how it goes, so goes the nation" lately and I think the same will be true in 2010. I'd say tossup between Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)

ME - I'd say tossup, way too early to tell. The GOP could have an opening due to party fatigue, but they'd need to run a decent candidate.

NM - I'd have to say lean D, since Richardson won't be on the ballot. However if his Lt. Governor is the nominee the GOP could possibly tie her to his failed governorship. NM just seems to have treaded pretty strongly RAT lately and has become a big time welfare state. From my initial glance, Susana Martinez might be a good choice for the GOP nominate in this heavily Hispanic state. Problem is, I don't know if she's a RINO or not.

OR - Similar problem with neighboring Washington state -- every election it looks like the GOP is going to finally get back the Governor's mansion after decades in the wilderness, but the RAT fraud and GOTV effort thwarts them. I'd say lean D because it seems all the GOP candidates are unknown.

WY - This state SHOULD normally safe R for Governor, and would be R today if it weren't for Eli Bebout managing to drop the ball in 2002. Alas, Freudenthal is now one of the most "popular" Governors in the U.S., and is seen as "above" partisan politics (even though he endorsed the marxist Hussein Obama in the RAT primary) and should easily be re-elected if he's not term limited. If he is out of the picture, the state should default to its GOP roots easily.

HI - I’d have to say tossup, surprising for this normally staunch RAT state, as Lt. Gov Aiona will be a strong candidate for the GOP if he's the nominee. However, Abercrombie is also very strong and popular with rank and file Hawaiian voters. Situation might change if other people are nominated in the primaries.

RI - I'd have to say tossup, with State Rep. Joe Trillo (R), A.G. Patrick Lynch (D), and marxist "Independent" Lincoln Chafee almost certain as the three choices on the ballot. The only chance Trillo has is if the two lefties beat the living cr@p out of each other enough over the moonbat vote that he sneaks in with 1/3rd of the remaining voters pulling the GOP lever.

SC - The state is usually pretty strong Republican, but there's a slight chance the RATs could pull off an upset. Again, it depends on who each party nominates.

AZ - Agree on this one, I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee.

CT - Lean RINO if the worthless but somehow popular Jodi Rell runs again, otherwise likely D.

NV - I don't think any RAT candidate has officially announced yet. Tossup.

[chris_bdba]

And I think John Kasich will be the next governor of Ohio. If Strickland by some chance is re elected then we will deserve more what he has created!

[AuH2ORepublican]

I agree that Beebe will likely get a pass, unless he does a 180 on the polls. Recent polling reveals Senator Blanche Lincoln to be extremely vulnerable, but the same polls show Beebe with a superb approval rating.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Cuomo has been imitating his father’s Hamlet act, and knows that he’ll piss off the black establishment. I think there’s a good chance he’ll run for reelection for AG.

[elizabethgrace]

So nice to learn you’re working for McDonnell campaign! I love to get actively involved too. Thanks for telling me the “thesis” bombshell isn’t inflicting the anticipated damage. Mr. Dirty Deeds deserves a resounding defeat.

Thanks, albie, for replying to me, and thank you too, Dangus.

[Impy]

“ANY Republican is better than ANY DEMOCRAT....period.”

I wish our standards for party membership were high enough to make that absolute statement an indisputable fact.

It’s true the vast majority of the time of course but not 100%.

For legislative seats moreso than Executive potions. Legislatures are mostly about voting record and party control. Usually I don’t back third party congressional candidates but I’m backing the conservative party candidate in the NY special election because the Republican is an ultra-RINO, pro-partial birth, pro-gay, pro-union piece of detritus who really oughta take more votes from the dem than from the Conservative candidate. She was selected, not elected to run for the seat. Even if the rat wins as embarrassing as that would be that will allow a real Republican to run in 2010 without having to go through a RINO incumbent backed with party dollars.

Mark Kirk (future party switch threat) is likely gonna be the Republican senate candidate in my state. He is so far to the left there are several rats in the state legislature that are to his right. None are running against him of course or are likely to win a statewide primary but if one did....

I digress.

Governorships are mostly about leadership.

Big time RINO Governors (not talking just lukewarm types) who govern just like rats and destroy their state GOPs are actually even more harmful than the rats.

Like imprisoned ex-Guv George Ryan here in Illinois and his younger clone Kirk Dillard. In Ryan’s case he was opposed by a moderate rat who would have been slightly better and in Mass. in 1990 an actual conservative managed to win the rat nod, he was far better than the RINO disaster William Weld. I would actually have voted for the dem if I could have voted in those 2 elections! Those are exceptions of course. 9 times out of ten the rat is commie disaster and when presented with 2 unacceptable choices like say Arnold Kennedy Schwarzenegger and any California democrat, the proper choice would have been none of the above.

If Dillard is nominated I forsee not voting for him in the general because he’s corrupt slime who will do more harm than good.

I wouldn’t vote against lukewarm Governors like Perry or Pawlenty or moderate candidates like Rudy but there is a line where it becomes counter-productive if they govern too far to the left or are incompetent. Don Scumquist of TN is an interesting case, he voted conservative in congress but turned out to be a disaster as Governor.

Thankfully Crist isn’t running in Florida, opting for the Senate instead. Redistricting would have been the only reason I’d consider it worthwhile to reelect him.

[Impy]

You have your own designated hitter?

Or did you mean your husband?. ;)

[BillyBoy]

An election where the Democrat candidate is a better choice than the Republican is an extremely rare circumstance, but once in a blue moon it does occur. Poshard over Ryan for Illinois Governor in ‘98 was a good example. I also would have supported pro-life moderate Democrat Bob Weygan over socialist weasel Lincoln Chafee in 2000. In both cases, we KNOW what happened when Ryan and Chafee were allowed to govern. Even if the RAT had turned out to be a total dud, it's hard to imagine them doing any worse damage than the “Republican”

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’ve mentioned this a few times. I voted for ole Scumquist (who was a native of IL, a Combiner removed to TN) in ‘94, namely because he was our only possible first-tier candidate running for Governor (the only other two Congressmembers then were Paleo Jimmy Duncan in the 2nd, and approaching-80 year old Jimmy Quillen in the 1st, who had been in the House since ‘62). I was later warned by a TN FReeper that he was already putting out RINO-ish signs, but I didn’t see them, and frankly, in that election, I was 20 and subscribed to the mindset that ANY R was better than any D, a delusional thought process for which I’m still doing penance for.

Anyway, after ole Donnie threw out some red meat to the Conservatives (abolishing the elective Public Service Commission, thereby eliminating a whole pool of Dem challengers - the PSC was always all-Dem, I couldn’t even say when there was or if there was a Republican who ever served on it - but it was basically to eliminate Bob Clement’s sister, Sara Kyle, as a candidate, and with that, she was never heard from again in this state), he settled into the “business as usual” schtick, and was so far in bed with the corrupt Democrat establishment, he practically pushed them out the other end.

I had wised up by ‘98 and was no longer singing Annie’s tune. I angrily endorsed the Democrat, John Jay Hooker, first in protest, and then I endorsed him because I basically believed he’d be a better Governor and more committed to Constitutional principles ? Why ? Because the Democrat party hated him. Back in the late ‘60s/early ‘70s, he was their golden boy, the great liberal reformer. 28 years after he was nominated for Governor the first time, the liberal was now a populist Constitutionalist - and he couldn’t give a rat’s f*** about what the Dems thought of him. The Dems all came about as close to tacitly endorsing Scumquist as you could get, they just couldn’t officially “say it.” So, I voted for the Dem because he was to the right of Scummie, and didn’t regret it one iota.

So, it was during Scummie’s last term when he tried to shove the illegal income tax down TN’s throat, pretty well near inciting a bonafide riot downtown when outraged Tennesseans literally stormed the capitol building (tipped off by then-State Sen. Marsha Blackburn, which put the fear of God into the rodentry and RINOs - they thought there was gonna be a necktie party - it was beautiful, I’d have participated myself had my health not sucked back then, too).

So, anyway, with all the anti-IT politicians, Scummie was plotting revenge. When the redistricting plan came out (controlled by the Dem legislature, despite the fact that Republicans had since ‘94, received a majority or plurality of overall votes), Scummie was clear as a bell, he didn’t target a single Democrat - indeed, he mercilessly approved a plan to eliminate almost a half-dozen Conservative Republicans by placing them all into the same district and with the hope that the fallout from brutal primaries between incumbents could see the Dems possibly pick up the seats, thereby (despite getting at or above 50% of the vote) reducing the GOP presence to 1/3rd of the body.

It was so obscene, so grotesque, that even Democrats said, “Just damn !” The f***ing gerrymander-loving Democrats thought the RINO Scumquist was being TOO HARD on the GOP ! So as to look big and magnanimous after the GOP legislators screamed bloody murder, the Dems approved their own plan, essentially an incumbent protection plan, keeping a ‘94 plan in place, and placing only 2 GOP incumbents together in a rural district that had slow growth (so lost 1 seat).

By the time it was all over with, so as to make sure that either his fellow RINO puppet (read: Combiner, Tennessee style) won, or a Democrat outright, he made sure our ultimate GOP nominee had no money for the general election in ‘02 (the then-still respectable Van Hilleary) to compete against Pharoah Phil, who $hits hundred dollar bills. Bredesen, of course, won (despite breaking finance laws to do it, which weren’t enforced by the unaccountable rodent hack state AG), but by a very narrow margin, after drastically outspending Hilleary. Scumquist accomplished his goal and we’ve had 8 years of worthless Phil in office now... So, anyway, the next time some *uckwit tells me ANY R is better than any D, I’ll tell them to go take a long walk off a short pier.

...and we ain’t even gotten to Slick Willard, Willie Floyd Weld, and Christie Turd Whitman, yet.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Shame about Don Sundquist. I remember him from my YR days, when he was the more conservative candidate for YR Chairman, against Frank Fahrenkopf of Nevada.

[fieldmarshaldj]

He was in DC for 12 years, long enough to have become corrupted. I don’t know what was the tipping point, but as soon as I saw him showing up at functions with our former Nashville/Davidson County Sheriff, Fate Thomas, a convicted felon and epitome of good-ole-boy Democrat politics, I knew something was very, very wrong (and boy, was I right).

[Impy]

It’s very early. Half of the races are up in the air at this point.

I’ll give my take.

RAT Seats, let’s start with VA And NJ which are less than 2 months away.

Virginia: Likely R

The rat’s desperate attacks have failed to dent the Republican’s lead in the polls.

New Jersey: Lean R.

The suspected RINO leads. But it’s NJ where GOP leads tend to evaporate on election day. But not this time I don’t think. I predict Corine is going down.

Arkansas: Safe D

Beebe (who has supported some tax cuts but also wasting more money on public schools) doesn’t even have an opponent yet (thanks Huck). Most Republicans are focusing on the suddenly vulnerable rat Senator Lincoln. Beebe’ll crush some sac lamb.

Colorado: Lean/Likely R

Ritter is disaster. Scott McInnis will beat him.

Illinois: Tossup/Lean D

The rat primary is a classic as in 1976. Would the combine prefer RINO Dillard to Quinn? I give slight edge to the rats in any of the potential mathcups. Dillard must not win the GOP primary.

Iowa: Tossup

I forget about Culver, he is unpopular. Crowded GOP field.

Maryland: Lean/Likely D

I don’t think O’Malley is beloved. Paging Bob Ehrlich, he’s the only Republican who can beat him. He doesn’t seem likely to run.

Massachusetts: Tossup

3-way race. Newly minted indie Tim Cahill is a better choice than the 2 worthless RINOs running in my opinion. I think Cahill wins and the RINO comes in third. If Patrick wins in will be because the RINO took too many votes from Cahill.

Kansas: Safe R

It’s rare to see a ‘safe’ pickup but I don’t see how Brownback loses to a rat sac lamb.

Maine: Tossup

Crowded fields on both sides. State favors the rats. A green and several indies will take votes here too. Love those greens.

Michigan: Lean R

Crowded field. GOP seems optimistic here.

New Hampshire: Safe D (2 year term)

That is if Lynch runs again. Tossup if open.

New Mexico: Leans D

The GOP appears to lack a top candidate here. If Heather Wilson runs this might change to a tossup.

New York: Tossup

Patterson will not win a general. He won’t win the primary if that wimp Cuomo (or Shillery) gets in.

Rick Lazio will be the nominee if Rudy doesn’t run. He can beat Patterson but likely not Cuomo or Shill. Rudy would be a tossup with Cuomo or Shill but he doesn’t seem to want to run.

Cuomo is the strongest rat but also obviously a wimp and a fool who’s terrified of POing the black vote.

Ohio: Tossup

I’m hopeful that Kasich will win. Strickland went from invincible to very vulnerable awfully quick.

Oklahoma: Lean/Likely R

The rat candidate will be the state AG. Watch out, he’s no slouch but should lose. Mary Fallin leads him in the last poll I saw for this race (from June).

Oregon: Lean D

The state tilts rat (and fraud is easy with the mail in ballots) and the rat candidates have won statewide before. The Oregon GOP is poorly run. But the time for a change argument works heavily in the Republican’s favor.

Pennsylvania: Tossup

The Governorship has switched parties every 8 years here since the 50’s. This cannot continue forever but hopefully it will happen one more time. AG Tom Corbett will beat RINOish Congressman Jim Gerlach in the GOP primary. I hope.

In 1994 the State AG (no rats was supposed to win the primary but lost in a crowded field to a RINOish congressman. But later that AG went to prison so....

http://www.goerie.com/risingson/running_for_governor.html

Tennessee: Likely R

Go Ron Ramsey. Lots of weak sisters running in the GOP primary.

Wisconsin: Tossup

I’m hopeful my neighbors to the north will lose a big football game today. I mean I’m hopeful they will not reelect their lousy Governor to a third term.

Wyoming: Safe D/Likely R

The courts through out Wyoming’s term limits for the state leg. It seems certain they will do so if the Guv term limits are challenged too.

Freudenthal will win if he can run. If not, likely R. (though I poo pooed his chances against Eli Bebout, Bebout’s drunk driving son cost him the race)

GOP Seats

Alabama: Lean/Likely R

If Davis wins the rat primary the rats chances are slimmer than if Ron Sparks does.

Alaska: Lean/Likely R

Parnell should beat the Alaska moonbats without much trouble. A much quieter race up there with Palin not running.

Arinoza: Tossup/Lean R

Terry Goddard the AG will be the rat. Rat Ags have a good record winning Governorships but Brewer should win. Butch didn’t leave the state in good shape.

California: Lean D

Maybe I’m being to generous to the RINO Whitman.

Connecticut: Safe R

If the uber-RINO runs. If not Likely D (probably the rat AG would run)

Florida: Lean R

McCollum is well positioned to win.

Hawaii: Tossup/Lean D

Good shot to hold it with a native Hawaiian who’s more conservative than RINO Lindy Lingle.

Idaho: Safe R

Boring. But in a good way.

Nebraska: Safe R

Heineman is one our better Governor by my estimation, dark horse POTUS possibility?

Nevada: Leans R/D

Gibbons would probably lose the general. But if Sandoval beats Gibbons in the primary he will probably win. Reid’s son might run, eww. That helps us

Rhode Island: Tossup

Chafee=Lowell Weicker? Eww I hope not. He’ll take more votes from the rats, he could allow the Republican to win. I’d rather the official rat wins than Chafee.

South Carolina: Lean R

GOP’s to lose in the default in South Carolina this century. Hopefully they won’t. No Andre Bauer!

South Dakota: Safe R

It’s an open seat and is the longest held GOP Governorship (since 1979) but no Herseth mean no rats. I’m reluctant to even downgrade it to “likely R”.

Texas: Lean/Likely R

Rats have an opening. That swine Kinky Friedman isn’t as loathed as he should be among freepers. The more prominent rats are interested in the Senate race instead.

Utah: Safe R

The GOP primary will be the election (no Matheson, no rat). Thank goodness that RINO Huntsman is on another continent.

______________________
So yeah the landscape looks promising at this point.

[Impy]

Oh and

Vermont: Tossup (2 year term)

If Brain Dubie runs as expected.

[SmokingJoe]

“Unless someone has dirt on Paterson on the Dem side, I don't see him necessarily gracefully stepping aside.”

It doesn't really matter if Paterson steps aside gracefully or not. He can either go quietly, or be totally crushed by Cuomo in the primaries.
His choice.
An August 16 poll from Quinnipiac University has Cuomo trouncing Paterson by a massive 4 to 1 in a hypothetical primary match up next year. Its will be a massacre.

” Cuomo wants the nomination, but he wants it without getting his hands dirty. He knows if he takes on Paterson head-on, he'll harm his standing with Black voters, and while they may not flock to the Republican candidate, they could angrily sit out the general, and that's not something Cuomo can afford.&rdquo

Can't agree with you there.
In the Quinnipiac University poll Cuomo clobbers Paterson, among black Democrats by massive 45-24 percent, so I don't see any fall out against Cuomo from blacks when he takes on and beats Paterson soundly (if Paterson runs that is.)
It's over for Paterson whatever way you slice it.
http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nypost.com%2Fseven%2F08162009%2Fnews%2Fregionalnews%2Fcuomo_clobbers_gov__poll_184773.htm

“Depends upon how Cuomo gets the nomination, if he does. I think Cuomo’s popularity is highly overinflated, and he's never faced a serious opponent”

Again, it don't matter much how Cuomo gets the nomination, he is going to be very hard to beat. Plus I don't see him having any problem easily winning the nomination at all. No one is even close to him in the polls right now on the Democratic side.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Scott Walker (R) will be the next Governor of Wisconsin. He’s currently the Milwaukee County Exectutive and carries that deep BLUE county every time.

Conservatives in Wisconsin have had it. Our current two-term Governor “Diamond Jim” Doyle (D) has bankrupted our state. Walker is a total fiscal conservative which is going to go pretty far with the conservative voting block that currently supports the tax-sucking LOSERS in this state...and is continually asked to throw more and more of our dollars down a rat hole.

[GOPsterinMA]

WOW! Have you ever thought of writing professionally? I’m serious - great analyses!

Weld in MA. Back in 1990 I told people that John Silber (D) was more conservative. I voted for Silber, to no avail. Weld as you know sucked, very badly. Case of voting D over R.

I was sucked in by Mitt though in 2002. Oh well - Universal MassCare has/will stop him from being president.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

I have a darling husband. :)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Hell, I oughta get paid for it. :-P

Oh, yes, I’ve discussed John Silber many times (I’ve probably essays galore on MA politics on here, but this dumb bunny keeps forgetting to mark links to them... ugh). Silber was a King Democrat (although Ed King switched to the GOP by then, and then the party refused to utilize him), and was quite preferable to the execrable Weld (although Steve Pierce should’ve been the nominee). I’ve stated my conviction, too, that Weld was a pretty obvious covert Democrat agent (he endorsed Zero last year, so he’s pretty well out of the closet, although still laughably claiming he’s a Republican).

As for Slick Willard, regrettably, I took the position that since he had money and claimed he would use that to pack more Republicans into the legislature, to give him a shot (since it was obvious that Janey Swift was a menace headed for a landslide loss, especially after she picked that radical liberal homosexual Hispanic running mate, Guerrero). And, well, we all know the rest now. He made Jane Swift look like Reagan.