Are Sunspots Disappearing? (NASA update)

NASA ^

[PreciousLiberty]

The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?

"Personally, I'm betting that sunspots are coming back," says researcher Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. But, he allows, "there is some evidence that they won't."

Penn's colleague Bill Livingston of the NSO has been measuring the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years, and he has found a remarkable trend. Sunspot magnetism is on the decline.

"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015."

[ETL]

Although sunspot cycle 24 is VERY slow to get underway (decades-long records are being broken for low minimum period activity), over the course of the past 80-100 years sunspot numbers have actually been through the roof (during *peak periods* of the 11-year solar activity cycle throughout this 80-100 yr period). Cycle-24 is not expected to get really busy for a few more years yet, possibly not until around 2013 they're saying now. Will the high level of sunspot activity continue when the peak finally arrives?. We will see. -etl

The following which I pieced together, describes a possible connection between the sunspot/solar activity cycle and climate.

If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks every apprx 11 yrs) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1625 and 1725. This period is known as the Maunder (sunspot) Minimum or "Little Ice Age".-etl

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From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
"A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer."..."In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.

This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it. It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm
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It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all. /s

But the main arguments being made for a solar-climate connection is not so much to do with the heat of the Sun (the sun isn't necessarily getting warmer) but rather with its magnetic cycles. When the Sun is more magnetically active (typically around the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle --we are a few yrs away at the moment), the Sun's magnetic field is better able to deflect away incoming galactic cosmic rays (highly energetic charged particles coming from outside the solar system). The GCRs are thought to help in the formation of low-level cumulus clouds -the type of clouds that BLOCK sunlight and help cool the Earth. So when the Sun's MF is acting up (not like now -the next sunspot max is expected in about 2013, according to the latest predictions), less GCRs reach the Earth's atmosphere, less low level, sunlight-blocking clouds form, and more sunlight gets through to warm the Earth's surface...naturally. Clouds are basically made up of tiny water droplets. When minute particles in the atmosphere become ionized by incoming GCRs they become very 'attractive' to water molecules, in a purely chemical sense of the word. The process by which the Sun's increased magnetic field deflects incoming cosmic rays is very similar to the way magnetic fields steer electrons in a cathode ray tube (old-time television tube) or electrons and other charged particles around the ring of a subatomic particle accelerator.-etl
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From 2008...

The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC (Danish National Space Center) investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate
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From a well-referenced wikipedia.com column (see wiki link for ref 14):
"Sunspot numbersover the past 11,400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional — the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.[14]"

[14] ^Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred & Beer, Jürg (2004), “Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years”, Nature 431: 1084–1087, doi:10.1038/nature02995, . Retrieved on 17 April 2007 , "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction". Global Change Master Directory. Retrieved on 2005-03-11.

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"Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked.
Present period is on [the right]. Values since 1900 not shown."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
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From NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's "Not So Frequently Asked Questions" section:

Q-Does the number of sunspots have any effect on the climate here on Earth?

A-Sunspots are slightly cooler areas on the surface of the Sun, due to the intense magnetic fields, so they radiate a little less energy than the surroundings. However, there are usually nearby areas associated with the sunspots that are a little hotter (called falculae), and they more than compensate. The result is that there is a little bit more radiation coming from the Sun when it has more sunspots, but the effect is so small that it has very little impact on the weather and climate on Earth.

However, there are more important indirect effects: sunspots are associated with what we call "active regions", with large magnetic structures containing very hot material (being held in place by the magnetism). This causes more ultraviolet (or UV) radiation (the rays that give you a suntan or sunburn), and extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV). These types of radiation have an impact on the chemistry of the upper atmosphere (e.g. producing ozone). Since some of these products act as greenhouse gases, the number of sunspots (through association with active regions) may influence the climate in this way.

Many active regions produce giant outflows of material that are called Coronal Mass Ejections. These ejections drag with them some of the more intense magnetic fields that are found in the active regions. The magnetic fields act as a shield for high-energy particles coming from various sources in our galaxy (outside the solar system). These "cosmic rays" (CRs) cause ionization of molecules in the atmosphere, and thereby can cause clouds to form (because the ionized molecules or dust particle can act as "seeds" for drop formation).

If clouds are formed very high in the atmosphere, the net result is a heating of the Earth - it acts as a "blanket" that keeps warmth in.

If clouds are formed lower down in the atmosphere, they reflect sunlight better than they keep heat inside, so the net result is cooling. Which processes are dominant is still a matter of research.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/classroom/notsofaq.html#SUNSPOT_CLIMATE
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NASA graph of sunspot activity over the past 400 years [note the profound lack of sunspot activity during the "Little Ice Age" period (apprx 1650-1720), AND the sharp INCREASE particularly during the past 60 years:

http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/images/ssn_yearly.jpg
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100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles:

ScienceDaily (Jun. 7, 2002) HANOVER, N.H.
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020607073439.htm

[LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget]

OK. The theory goes like this:

Sun spots “poof up” the earths magnetosphere. The magnetoshpere blocks cosmic rays. When there are no sun spots the magnetosphere shrinks and lets through more cosmic rays. Cosmic rays react in the upper atmosphere and cause nucleation sites for cloud formation. More clouds reflects back more heat. Climate gets cooler.

[raybbr]

Of course, you could also really focus the light to say a 10 foot diameter on earth’s surface and you could really fry a building / tank

Or, you could make a lot of popcorn with it....

[Right Wing Assault]

sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015

In addition to guns and ammo, stock up on snowblowers and fuel for them. Snowmobiles. Firewood. Blankets. Parkas. Boots. Gloves. Skis. Snowtires and chains. Plows. Hot cocoa (or whiskey). Hats. Anti-freeze. Etc. ....

[glorgau]

Lack of sunspots is, of course, caused by global warming.

[ETL]

The Chilling Stars, 2nd Edition:
A Cosmic View of Climate Change (Paperback)
by Henrik Svensmark (of the Danish National Space Center - DNSC)

http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-2nd-Cosmic-Climate/dp/1840468661
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The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC (Danish National Space Center) investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate

[ETL]

OK. The theory goes like this.....

See my previous post.

[LomanBill]

>>Sunspots are going extinct!

Bush’s Fault.

[taxcontrol]

At about 1366 watts per sq meter for solar energy at the earth’s upper atmosphere, that would work out to roughly a 35.5 Gigawatt laser if you combined both L4 and L5 at the same location. Lose what? 10% of that coming through the atmosphere so call it 32 Gigawatt at ground level. 16 Gigawatt if independently focused.

That’s 32 million microwave popcorn bags at once. Yeah, that is a lot of popcorn

/sarc

[SuziQ]

ROTFL! Did they just NOW notice?

[SuziQ]

Nekkid Sun ping!

[chuck_the_tv_out]

Sometimes posts have no URL, “this just on Fox News” etc

[GOPJ]

"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015."

It's all caused by SUV's - quick start a new Cash for Clunkers program... and hand over all our freedoms to a WORLD COMMITTEE... /s

[Will we know the moment]

The Mayans are right....2012

[blue-duncan]

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[chuck_the_tv_out]

[<1/1,000,000th%]

It really is a historic event.

Prepare for another cold, snowy winter.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

This sudden shortage of sunspots requires urgent and massive government action. How can we tax, or subsidize this phenomenon? (Can we do both?) Can we create a market for sun spot credits? Should we ban sun block?

[GraceG]

>> The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?

Our solar system is how many million, or billion years old? Don’t start looking for trends and drawing conclusions based on a few years data. That’s Algore science. <<

What is funny is seeing Gore subscribe to the same data set as the YEC, and yet they laugh at how dumb they think the YEC people are, which is funny as they just pointing the finger at dumb they themselves are.

[AFPhys]

Right now the folks who are doing the leading edge thinking about sunspot “counting” are already doing specific spectrum measurements instead of looking at white light photos. They are also trying to come up with a way to assess very puny spots that last for only hours instead of a full day, which has never been done in the past.

Given that we may soon see no spots in “white light”, I applaud these efforts.

When I’m looking for spots now, I first look at the UV images for “hot spots” - that is alwayss much easier to see than the cooler spots that accompany them.