Charlie Cook: Dem situation has 'slipped completely out of control'

Politico.com ^ | 8/20/2009 | Charles Mahtesian

[SonOfDarkSkies]

Charlie Cook, one of the best political handicappers in the business, sent out a special update to Cook Political Report subscribers Thursday that should send shivers down Democratic spines.

Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low," he wrote.

[SeattleBruce]

Obamacare will pass — that disaster should ensure Demwit majorities for decades to come.
+++++++++++++++

Really? Not enough backlash? Wow, the backlash is pretty harsh now, and they’ve not passed anything yet.

[saganite]

Uh Huh.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Exactly. Our best bet is a near-majority. Save a majority win for 2012 with a President Palin.

[boxlunch]

I want to see a loss, but not loss of control. Remember the 1994 Republican tsunami insured a Bill Clinton re-election 2 years later. Let’s get the numbers down keeping in mind that the moonbats on the Left will still be in control of all the committees and be the face of the Democratic Party in 2012. That will be an epic election as everyone who is not voting for the One will be labled a racist or worse. This could be the undoing of the Republic with all kinds of things we have never in our lifetimes seen in this country.
_________________________________________

I’m not following this, can you explain a bit more? If Republicans did get control, why would the Dems still be in control of the committees?

[Zhang Fei]

In other words we will return to the Dark Ages as a highly technical society collapses in on if self ---it will be mob rule

Yup - we're about to collapse back to the Dark Ages of the 1990's. Think Windows 95 and the Mac before OSX. Oh - and home internet via 14.4K modems.

[jesseam]

AS the current white house occupant arragantly said WE WON! enuf said. Whether this sparks armed conflict with his Brown Shirts or not, I don’t know but keep your powder dry.

[skaterboy]

But we will lose Kentucky...

[justiceseeker93]

Obamacare will pass -- that disaster should ensure Demwit majorities for decades to come.

C'mon now, aren't you being too pessimistic?

[LS]

Um hate to break it to you but every House Dem (as is every Republican) is up for election. And if you mean Senate, it's actually looking better there---far better than I could have dreamed a few months ago. Sphincter is trailing, badly; Kirk (yes, a RINO) looks to lead in IL; Voino in OH (retiring) has a good chance of being replaced by Rob Portman---trailing in the last poll, but Portman has been doing nothing but raising a phenomenal amount of money. Insiders say he's ok. Castle in DE (RINO) is leading. Reid is trailing.

It is possible that with Portman, Toomey, and a strange twist with the FL seat, that we could replace three RINOs/former RINO (in Sphincter's case) with three conservatives and only pick up one seat in the process, yet have many more conservatives. Boxer is very low in her polls, too, and has a very well funded opponent.

[NeoCaveman]

But we will lose Kentucky...

No way Kentucky sends a Dem to the Senate in a Republican wave year.

[LS]

I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, I'll be surprised if we don't come very close to taking back the House. IMHO, that won't be enough: allowing for RINOs, I think we need to win something like 80-100 seats to smack down Obammy, and need to have a conservative (not just Republican) gain of about 5-6 seats to have a good shot at stopping him in the Senate. Now, the Senate isn't looking nearly as bad as it was two months ago.

But at the rate the Dems are melting down and angering people, there is a LONG way to go, and it's possible if the Republicans just let the Dems hang themselves that we could see some serious action in 2010.

[NeoCaveman]

Don’t forget Connecticut Dodd looks so dead that the GOP primary has attracted 4 maybe 5 contenders, and that might be going to 6. Seems there are a lot of bored people with money in Connecticut (like Linda McMahon of the WWE wrestlin)

[LS]

Yeah, I didn’t mention all. I think Lincoln is vulnerable too, but I always think that. A lot can happen. The main thing is that the GOP continue to differentiate itself from the Dems and let them kill themselves on health care.

[NeoCaveman]

There are seats that can become vulnerable that at the moment are not. B Lincoln’s is one. We’ll have to wait until after November 09 to see.

I also think governor Hoeven might jump into the Senate race against Byron Dorgan. Which turns a safe dem seat into a leans R seat quickly.

[NeoCaveman]

. The main thing is that the GOP continue to differentiate itself from the Dems and let them kill themselves on health care.

BINGO!

[LS]

Yes, that’s another that I was thinking of. Hoeven kicks his butt. Did you see the FL Quinnipiac poll? Obama down there, too, and didn’t he carry FL? That means that in the last two months, almost every critical “swing” state has him under 50% (OH, VA, CO, and now FL). Don’t know where he is in MO, NM, or NV.

[skinkinthegrass]

I was under the impression it was staggered, as in my country.

...only the Senate is staggered (6 years),
House Is Re-elected every 2 Years

[skinkinthegrass]

Got the mssg.

[Impy]

“Reviewing recent polling and the 2010 election landscape, Cook can envision a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats.”

I’d like to double or treble that. :D

[mel]

yes, i agree it is going to get quite volatile next year
I think you are on target there.
i know i will be protesting.
who would have ever thought it a 54 make that 55 year old pharmacist. who likes to read and watch classic tv and foreign movies.