Boomers - Winter is Coming

Raging Debate ^ | 9-13-09 | Jim Quinn

[iThinkBig]

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

[Paleo Conservative]

I have it in my stack to read...is it worth bumping up?

It's worth reading. You might take it with a grain of salt. It wouldn't hurt if the grain of salt were on the rim of a margarita glass.

[Obadiah]

ping

[b4its2late]

The first George Bush administration was marked by the Gulf War, which planted the poisonous seeds for our future War on Terror,

This is debatable. I think the seeds for that war were well before that, a la Jimmah Carta.

[jpl]

We’re going to go the way of the British Empire. We won’t rule the world anymore. So it goes.

Have you seen what Britain is like lately? It's a heck of lot worse than simply not ruling the world the way they used to.

[b4its2late]

I agree with ya. And the peak oil thing is that we haven’t been allowed to drill for oil in the US for years and in certain places thanks to the enviros. Their Nuremberg though is going to be a distraction that will probably derail allot of what the WH wants to do, even though they are all for it, even if they say they aren’t.

[ImpBill]

What a thought! Are you a founding father?

How ironic that George Washington warned about allowing political parties becoming our representatives and we failed to take heed. We (inclusive) are enjoying the fruits of our follies.

[schu]

There have been a number of threads over the last few months about the 4th turning and the US entering this cycle.

While I agree that we are entering the 4th Turning the idea that peak oil is the cause is not addressing the core issue. We have plenty of energy, there is an abundance of energy in the word, far more than we can use. This energy takes many forms, oil being one of them.

The core issues are personal responsibility and moral relativism. These basic issues are at the heart of most of our problems and until we come to grips with these ideas, attempts to solve our problems will be futile. The author makes the same mistake, blaming our problems on external events that we have limited control over.

The disintegration of the family has so many negative manifestations – crime, abuse, welfare, urban sprawl, unemployment, out of control government, etc (read Jack Cashill's What is Wrong with California). And the reason many families split is due to not taking responsibility for personal actions and the idea that what is right/wrong does not apply to me (made the baby, care for the baby).

Social conservatives have it right, the family must be strengthened, but this is not a popular idea nor is it a politically winning strategy. We need more producers and fewer consumers.

We are entering the 4th Turning. The last three 4th Turnings have been progressively more destructive and disruptive. This one is shaping up to be very nasty.

schu

[Le Chien Rouge]

Agreed.

Things to come:

1) Race wars- black vs white with brown
2) Sporadic martial law
3) Severe Urban rioting over food
4) Federal government collapse;US tears itself appart
5) Open warfare in the Southwest
6) Several states pondering succession
7) Foreign Nations attempting to grab US territory
8) repeated Islamic attacks on US
9) LIBERAL baby boomers fading into oblivion
10) Shale oil being cheaply converted into a fuel source
11) US states taking charge of rebuilding of government and economy
12) Eruabia is born
13) Mass immigration from Europe
14) China implodes
15) India asserts itself as a world leader
16) Christianity returns to the US with a vengeance
17) Hollywood marginalized
18) Conservative baby boomers become mentors to Gen y
19) Gen X leads rebuilding efforts and then steps aside
20) We will not recognize the US in 20 years: the good and the bad

[Lazamataz]

I kinda dig what you’ve written.

[Cooter]

Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States.

Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.

But then he doesn't conveniently fit into the Nomad category.
;^)

[griswold3]

Good article.
What people learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. That’s why we’re doomed to repeat it. Always starts with a minor incident as the elimination of natural law from society and society snowballs from there.
My global graph says we won’t hit bottom for ten years and won’t see a recovery for twenty. (That’s globally, though. What happens to the USA is anyone’s guess.)

[Wolfie]

It'll be awhile before we get there. I'll be gone by then. Look, we pissed it away. Everybody's convinced their guy in D.C. is doing the right thing. Everybody's wrong.

[r9etb]

Hm. I'm OK with the idea of these cylclic "turnings" in a general sense. OTOH, I think it's a mistake to try to paint the transitions as starkly as Mr. Quinn tries to do.

I think Mr. Quinn also makes a mistake by trying to apply the ideas to current events. He appears to rely very strongly on his own peeves (for lack of a better word) to describe the current cycle; and of course in so doing it makes his own outlook seem "prophetic."

There's just enough reality there to make his assessment superficially plausible; however, he also clearly has to fudge some of the conditions (e.g., was there really weaker government during the '70s? Did the "culture wars" really begin in 1984, or did they actually start much earlier?).

Also, he selects WWII as the "crisis" when in fact the Depression and its resultant change in governmental systems would probably be a more accurate choice .... but of course, then he couldn't invoke (and blame) the Boomers with the same authority.

Most importantly, Quinn seems to ignore the effects of the outside world on what he seems to treat as a purely American phenomenon. That's flat-out incorrect: it's impossible to assess "Turnings" in America without reference to those in China and elsewhere.

To be useful, the theory has to be assessed in a global context, and must account for the possibility that "Turnings" in different parts of the world may be at different stages. For example, is China at the same place we are? I tend to think not; and yet China's turnings interact with ours.

Bottom line, I guess, is this: the theory of "Turnings" is a useful way to look at history, and to spot very broad trends in current events; but it's next to useless as a predictive measure, because it requires the "prophet" to know more about how the future actually will occur, than he can possibly do.

[ladyvet]

Thanks, I’ll take your advice!

[Iron Munro]

Hey Flower Children, remember how you used to say “don’t trust anyone over 30”? Remember “Wild in the Streets”? You were going to thin the heard of old people. Well, it’s kind like Pharoah’s Tenth Plague.

Good observation.

By the time the dreamers, dopers, cowards and flakes came into power they had become the old ones they warned about; now they are the old herd to be thinned.

Once Obama gets control of the health industry, he will be culling them like they wanted to cull their own parents.

[ansel12]

Good observation. By the time the dreamers, dopers, cowards and flakes came into power they had become the old ones they warned about; now they are the old herd to be thinned.

You must not be aware that the fatal attack on America by the left that doomed it's future peaked from 1935 to 1975, the years since have not been as productive for the left, boomers actually moved the country right as they came of age in the 1980s and started winning wars again and brought back gun rights, the 1965 immigration act will still swallow the nation but no one can erase that.

[wtc911]

According to the author, Obama is the poster boy for Gen-X.

okay.

[Dr. Thorne]

James Quinn a senior director of strategic planning for Harvard University. The Harvard Endowment took a 22% dive in 2008, the largest in their history. They are expecting another 30% by the end of this fiscal year.

Why should I listen to anything he says? He clearly did not see the financial collapse coming, but he has plenty to say now.

[iThinkBig]

Actually, he is the one of the Dir. of the Wharten School of Business in PA. I believe you are thinking of another Jim Quinn whom also resides in PA and has a radio program. I know Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform.com. I don’t disagree with what you are saying about Harvard grads and economics. The FIRE economy is dead, long live the FIRE economy!

[Red Boots]

The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition.

I think it will be the first one: nation ruined, democracy destroyed, millions of people scattered and killed.