Posted on 06/14/2009 5:56:48 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
Slight April gain over March gives weak signal for peak season Container volumes at U.S. ports edged up in April compared to March, but remained well below the volumes recorded in April 2008, according to the monthly Port Tracker published by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.
The second half of 2009 appears to be trending the same way the first half progressed, with containerized imports creeping up compared to the month before, but down noticeably from the same month last year.
It therefore looks like the back-to-school shopping season this summer, traditionally the second busiest period on retailers' calendars, will be disappointing. Prospects for the holiday shopping season that follows look equally bleak.
These developments are reflected directly in the cargo volumes moving through the eight major U.S. container gateways covered by Port Tracker.
"Retailers are still being cautious with their inventory levels in anticipation of slow sales this summer into the fall," said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
Containerized imports in April increased 2 percent over March, but were down 22 percent compared to April 2008, according to Port Tracker. April was the third lowest month since 2004 and marked the 22nd month in a row of year-over-year declines in volume.
Projections call for May to be down 21 percent and June 19 percent from the same months last year. Port Tracker projects that containerized imports in the first half of 2009 will be down 21 percent compared to the first six months of 2008.
Port Tracker projects volumes in the peak summer-fall months through October will be down about 16 to 18 percent compared to peak season 2008.
Logistically, the U.S. port and intermodal transportation networks are operating efficiently and without any disruptions. Ports are congestion-free from vessel to gate. Rail service levels are good and the harbor trucking industry is operating with excess capacity.
On the other hand, all of these transportation industries are struggling with weak revenues and over-capacity.
Introduction of the federal security program known as the Transportation Worker Identification Credential has successfully taken place at all major gateways.
My prediction is that retailers will be so desperate they will start using phrases like "Merry Christmas" instead of "Happy Holidays," or "Happy Generic End of Year Buying Binge."
No confidence in the hope and change.
Less supply will equal highter prices for the people.
Obama really likes to help the people, doesn’t he?
In order for US to maintain shipment of its’ goods for export, it relies on import ship containers for its export load. Because containers from imports have dropped sharply, US exports are piling up for lack of containers. Grains are impacted heavily. Exports are now operating inefficiently for lack of shipping containers. No solution in sight.
“This year will be make or break for a lot of retail, and it might not be the ones who sell the most, but who bought the least inventory, who survive.”
I’m in Retail and we are going into this Christmas season very gingerly. We’re going to use a lot of stock we already have on hand and jazz it up and ‘Christmasfy” it for the cash-in-hand heathen masses. ;)
A link from April 2009 on shipping container shortage
http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?id=19873
The very reason the wife and I go on vacation for xmas and refuse to participate in the madness.
I recommend buy “Made In USA” (without the union label) - that’s what I’lll be looking for this Christmas! ;-)
Yep. We have a very simple Christmas season at our home, too. Always have, always will.
But, you know...some people want to spend their money on frivolities, and I need to make a living, so who am I to deprive them of their right to plunk down their cash at my store? ;)
I like to make or bake my Christmas gifts. It’s almost July! Time to get crafting. ;)
good luck!
Ports are congestion-free from vessel to gate. Rail service levels are good and the harbor trucking industry is operating with excess capacity. On the other hand, all of these transportation industries are struggling with weak revenues and over-capacity.
And yet our fearless communist Party Boss Zerø wants ever higher gas prices while demanding idiotic levels of gas mileage which will decrease demand and presenting real time demonstrations of fascism with the nations core industries, thus socking the stock market to it’s knees while kissing Saudi butts and planning the latest version of the brownshirt brigades and forming the “new” Gestapo to begin indoctrination in elementary school.
Meanwhile, the Ø-bots are spouting NAZI crap like this… It's not enough to prosecute these murders as murders. They are hate-motivated crimes and each of these men had been under some sort of police surveillance prior to their actions. Isn't it time we started rounding up promoters of hate before they kill?
Hitler went to Paris too, ya know.
How does that go again?
"Hail Victory"
“Yes we can”
"Hail Victory"
“Yes we can”
"Hail Victory"
“Yes we can”
.
.
This is the true straw man report. Where is the correlation.
Truth is back to school items were shipped a month are so back, items shipped now are Halloween.
More like no cash left after hope and change.
Bump and rattle...
Just about everything in the economy is inter-related. No sooner do you think that you can see the way ahead than the reaction to a previous change comes along and hits you in the face.
By Roger Bootle
Published: 10:00PM BST 14 Jun 2009
The factor that ought to trouble the markets at the moment is the rebound in oil and commodity prices. Could this derail the economic recovery which seems, to many observers, to be just around the corner?
There has been a significant and broad-based increase in commodity prices since March. In dollar terms, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has risen by more than 40pc, while since December of last year, the Baltic Dry Freight Index, which is an indicator of the price of transporting bulk commodities, has risen by 425pc.
The surge in commodity prices has been led by industrial metals such as lead, nickel, copper and zinc, which have risen by between 55pc and 72pc. Oil prices have lagged only slightly behind, with Brent crude rising by 43pc and reaching a level more than double the lows of $35 per barrel seen in December last year. Agricultural commodity prices have also risen sharply, notably soybeans (up by almost 50pc), with corn, wheat and cocoa rising by between 10pc and 20pc.
[snip]
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