New poll shows Palin no longer Alaska's most popular politician [not really but still interesting]

The Alaska Standard ^ | 3 Jan 09 | Dan Fagan

[GATOR NAVY]

New poll shows Palin no longer Alaska's most popular politician

---

Posted on 03 January 2009

By Dan Fagan

Ask conservative Republicans across the country what they think of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and the vast majority of them will begin to gush in cult-like fashion about how wonderful she is. Palin has energized the conservative base unlike anyone since Ronald Reagan. But how is she doing in the state in which she governs?

Some speculate Palin has every intention of running for president four years from now after tasting the national spotlight. She has yet to rule out a race for Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski’s seat two years from now. Murkowski’s seat opens the same time as Palin’s term as Governor ends. Palin may be better positioned to run for president after spending a couple years in the Senate. But how would she do against Murkowski?

A poll commissioned by TheAlaskaStandard.com and conducted by Dittman Research shows Palin would have a tough time beating Murkowski.
In fact, in a Republican primary, Murkowski would defeat Palin soundly, by a margin of 58 percent to 31 percent.

In Alaska, registered Democrats are not allowed to vote in the Republican primary, but independents and non-partisans are. The poll shows Murkowski beating Palin by 8 percentage points, 50 percent to 42 percent among registered Republicans. But what is really surprising is how poorly Palin does with independents. A group that had overwhelmingly supported her during her run for governor. Murkowski gets a whopping 70 percent of support from independents in Alaska while leaving Palin with only 19 percent.

One place Palin does do well is with 18 to 29 year olds. She holds an eight-point lead over Murkowski with that group. But her support drops off dramatically with the older the voter. Thirty to 44 year olds prefer Murkowski by 14 percentage points. Forty-five to 49 year olds would vote for Murkowski over Palin by a significant 37 percentage points and old time Alaskans, age 60 plus like Murkowski more than Palin by 34 percentage points.

By gender, Palin continues to have her problems when running against Murkowski. The poll shows with men, Murkowski holds a 19-point lead and she has an even larger lead with women. Only 27 percent of Republican and independent women say they would vote for Palin over Murkowski.

If Sarah Palin has hopes of holding the White House in four years, according to our poll, she’ll have to run from the Governor’s mansion.

[SkyDancer]

This is going to be a very interesting coupla four years ... it's almost movie-like .... the media created this person and now they'll have to deal with it ....

Created? Moi? I have always existed!

PS - Hey, I'm getting pretty good at this HTML stuff, ain't I?

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

If Sarah Palin has hopes of holding the White House in four years, according to our poll, she’ll have to run from the Governor’s mansion.

1. It's kinda hard to "hold the White House" when Obama is the incumbent.

2. Contrary to popular opinion, the Senate is not a great place to run for president from. I admit that it is a pretty good place from which to run for the presidential nomination of a party - but Warren G. Harding is the only example of a senator without executive experience defeating a governor in the general election.

   Senator Kennedy beat VP Nixon, but VP is political heir of the president but in no sense an executive position; one of them had to win. When Nixon beat VP Humphrey, one of them had to win, and when Senator Obama beat Senator McCain one of them had to win.

It would not be intelligent for Governor Palin to seek a Senate seat to further her chances of beating a sitting president in 2012. It would also be an unnecessary strain on her family.

[Eska]

I don't hold much credence in any polls in Alaska, and I've lived here 20 years. Entrenched Repubs have always hated Palin; mainly because she doesn't do what the good old boy repub network tells her to do; Alaskans like that higher sense of responsibility to the Ak people.

You would think that with all the repubs heading off to the big house and into political obscurity over corruption issues; they'd figure it's time to look in the mirror; probably never happen.

We're actually quite lucky Palin aspired to higher goals than Wasilla; without her, Ak would have alot more dems in office. Palin gave the conservatives hope up here, when many were disillusioned about their party.

I don't hear any conservatives complaining about Palin, they are all quite proud of what she has achieved and even prouder, that she went after corrupt repubs, about time. When Lisa Murkowskis name comes up, everybody remembers that she was appointed by her dad;; all the nepotism. Murkowski will never live that down, no matter what she does.

I figure Palin will continue to do the right thing as she has done since the 90's; all she needs to do to win a primary up here as a conservative. Quite foolish to put any faith in polls in Alaska.

[Seven plus One]

Hell, Murkowski's a lock anyway, If she wants it why not let her hang on to it? We need all the help we can get there, anyway. Palin could do another term or so as Governor, a job she does well, build up that CV and we'll see what the future brings. Everyone wins. We don't hand anything over to the opposition. Not in the senate, or Alaska, or anywhere.

[Old Sarge]

So, let me get this straight...
You slandered my daughter, you libeled me,
you threw my political future under the campaign bus,
you allowed the media to convince
The Sheep that I'm nothing but white trash,
you let them torch my church Odinga-style,
and you expect me to do WHAT for you in 2012??

Keep all your hate in the lower 48, because
I'm staying in Alaska, and all of you
can kiss my perfectly-formed ass!

[Snurple]

That is exactly what she should tell them Sarge.

[wrighter]

Palin-Hannity in 2012 is a winning ticket should Obamanation prove to be a failure.

[Josh Painter]

Tag-teaming Sarah Palin

What does a Sarah Palin critic and friend of Lisa Murkowski do when a poll shows that Palin would be the clear winner in a potential Senate race between the two women? Have another poll conducted which shows different results, of course. And that is just what has occurred in Alaska.

Dan Fagan is the Anchorage talk show host, columnist and blogger who had a big falling out with Gov. Sarah Palin and has been trying to tear her down ever since. Fagan's best friends in Alaska are the Murkowskis and Big Oil. Ever since Lisa Murkowski's father Frank was pried loose from the governor's job by Sarah, things between the Murkowskis and the Palins have been going downhill. The Murkowskis are still tight with Dan Fagan, however, and Lisa is a regular contributor to Fagan's blog The Alaska Standard.

Even after Palin upset Frank Murkowski in the Republican gubernatorial primary, she still managed to get along with Fagan. But when Sarah Palin took on the oil companies, that was the final straw. Dan has never forgiven her for that unpardonable sin, and it's been open warfare ever since. Two Wall street Journal stories, here and here, are good background reads on the subject.

Meanwhile, tensions between Palin and the Murkowskis were further strained when the media tried to provoke open warfare between them by speculating about a possible Palin run for Lisa Murkowski's U.S. Senate seat. The Senator was not amused, and she and the governor had to release a joint statement to make at least a public show of unity.

But the media continued its talk of a potential Palin Senate run, even though it's not really in the Govenor's interests to challenge Lisa Murkowski for the seat. If Palin has some hidden desire to be a Senator, it would behoove her to wait until 2014 and take on Alaska's other Senator, a Democrat. No one is more aware of this than Markos Moulitsas, the publisher and founder of the hard left website Daily Kos. He is also quite aware of Gov. Palin's front-runner status for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, evidence for which can be found here, here, here and here. Also, Palin was impressive in helping Georgia's Saxby Chambliss retain his Senate seat by a margin that was much wider than expected, and she's a phenomenon nationally. If you think the Democrats don't fear her, you haven't been paying attention.

So kos figured that the best way to make trouble for Sarah Palin is to exploit the tensions between the governor and her political rivals in Alaska. Understanding that Palin has as many enemies in the Republican Party as she does among Alaskan Democrats, kos commissioned an opinion poll by Research 2000 which showed Palin with a double-digit lead over Lisa Murkowski in a potential match up for Murkowski's Senate seat.

Here's where Dan Fagan re-enters the picture. His Alaska Standard website commissioned a poll by a local company which shows results completely different from those of the Research 2000 survey. Fagan's poll, conducted by Dittman Research, shows:

Palin would have a tough time beating Murkowski. In fact, in a Republican primary, Murkowski would defeat Palin soundly, by a margin of 58 percent to 31 percent.

Contrast this result with those of the kos-sponsored poll which shows Palin soundly defeating Murkowski by a 55 percent to 31 percent margin, and it's clear that something is amiss here. Which of the two polls is correct?

It doesn't matter. Fagan's poll numbers provide him with the justification he needs to headline an Alaska Standard article declaring:

New poll shows Palin no longer Alaska's most popular politician

Do you see what is going on here? The Democrat left is exploiting internal rivalries within the Alaska Republican Party in an attempt to weaken Palin's front-runner standing with Republicans nationwide. That some of Palin's harshest critics are self-described conservatives matters not at all. When the political left and their media allies shout "Jump!" the response from Palin's GOP enemies is always "How high?"

This is the nature of the forces arrayed against Sarah Palin to cripple her politically, whatever path she may take - remaining Governor, taking a detour through the U.S. Senate or challenging Barack Obama for the presidency. No matter which path she chooses, she will have to fight not only the Democrats and their media, but her Republican enemies and their own media. These Alaskan "conservatives" are only too willing to conspire with their ideological opposites to defeat her. But Sarah Palin has faced long odds before and emerged triumphant. She will need a maximum effort from her supporters to be successful in whatever she chooses to do in the future.

- JP

Sarah Palin for President

[GipperGal]

Let me tell you all a little about Dan Fagan. This guy hated Palin from the moment she ran for governor.

Here’s an excerpt from Kaylene Johnson’s bio of Palin:

Meanwhile, the [Republican] old guard didn’t know what to make of the young populist candidate, especially when she began moving up in the polls despite their best efforts to either discredit her or support her opponents.

‘Anyone who was part of the establishment fought against her. [Talk show host] Dan Fagan clawed, fought, ridiculed, embarrassed, and deliberately misrepresented Sarah,’ Bailey said. Disparaging remarks on radio programs sometimes backfired. Fagan showed up at the Palin campaign headquarters one morning to clarify a point before his daily show. Waiting at the front desk was a man who took one look at Fagan and dug out his checkbook. ‘This is your fault,’ he said, waving his checkbook in the air. ‘Every time you bash this woman on the air, I’m down here writing another $500 check. Cut it out.’” [emphasis added]

He's always been out to destroy her and her credibility. Here's Palin ripping him a new one on his radio show. It's quite amusing. The guy is a gutless worm.

Oh, and he is also the one that Palin's Lt. Governor Sean Parnell mentioned in one of the private emails that was released after it was hacked. In that particular email, Parnell bemoaned the fact that Dan Fagan had targeted him and was slinging crap at him. Parnell had tried to change Alaska's lifelong Congressman Young in the Republican primaries. Idiots like Dan Fagan like keeping corrupt old pork politicians in place.

I'm sorry to say this, but the Alaska GOP establishment is everything that's wrong with the GOP. If they hate Palin, then she's fine by me.

[GipperGal]

Awesome post! Thanks, Josh. However, I must correct you on the Dan Fagan thing. He’s never been Palin’s friend. Perhaps they were briefly “frienemies” right after Palin won the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2006, but that was it.

[upsdriver]

I hope the hell Sarah Palin doesn’t run for the Senate. What a waste of her talent, to join that collection of turds.

[upsdriver]

gush in cult like fashion, I caught that too, all that made me do is disqualify everything else the writer had to say.

[Seven plus One]

This is the nature of the forces arrayed against Sarah Palin to cripple her politically, whatever path she may take - remaining Governor, taking a detour through the U.S. Senate or challenging Barack Obama for the presidency.

Terrific post. That the establishment is scared shitless of politicians like Palin is obvious. That they're stirring up crap in Alaska doesn't do Alaska any good. Palin even wanting a senate seat seeems comical to me. That's where political dead wood goes to rot. She is way better than that. Usually when the MSM wants a Republican out of the picture, they just ignore them to death. In Palin's case,they're still actively dis-informing. I aint playing that game. I think we all see where this is coming from, and the ultimate end desired.

[Sarah Barracuda]

LOL Sarah isn’t even gonna run for Senate, Lisa can keep it. The Senate is full of corruption and greed. WOW the libs are truly scared of this woman aren’t they. Are they really gonna be doing this kind of crap to her for the next 4 years to keep her from running, WOW. I have never seen such fear, the fear from the left tells me that we got our nominee, they are THAT scared that she is gonna run, it’s gonna be a longgggggggg 4 years

[reg45]

Senator Kennedy beat VP Nixon

Not really! Everyone knows that the 1960 election was stolen for Kennedy by Richard J. Daley and Lyndon Johnson.

[an amused spectator]

Written by Dan "Fagboy" Fagan: The Curious Case of Dan Fagan’s Levi Johnston Op-Ed in the Anchorage Daily News

Fagboy is a serial Palin hit-piece guy, and the Left apparently loves his "homophobic, Islamophobic, racist, Exxon-loving WATB" self because he hates Palin.

[curth]

Comment left at http://thealaskastandard.com/?q=node/232#comment-605 the host of this garbage poll:

If you don’t get the results you want, conduct your own poll
Submitted by curth on Sun, 01/04/2009 - 9:04pm.

This poll is pure BS. The Daily Kos, the DAILY KOS of all things, conducted a similar poll only a few weeks ago and unbelievably, got very unsimilar results. Obviously those who sponsored the poll on this site, did not like seeing that Governor Palin would win a Senate race by a 55-31 margin, so they made up their own poll.This poll here is nothing but another hit piece against Governor Palin.
Hopefully she’ll stay as Governor and avoid the cesspool that the US Senate is.
See the Daily Kos poll here:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/19/163122/92/701/674605

[Chrisie]

The Daily Kos - not a Palin fan - had Palin leading Murkowski by a huge margin.

It’s interesting to see how favorably skewed this Dittman poll is toward Murkowski. It only takes a few minutes worth of research to dig up all the contributions Terry Dittman and David Dittman have given to the Murkowskis (both Frank and Lisa) over the years including a $500 donate to Lisa Murkowski as recent as May 2008. David Dittman’s contributions to Frank Murkowski go back almost 30 years to 1980.

Also, Dittman was Frank Murkowski’s paid pollster until the whole VECO debacle. So, just how accurate is this poll? If a lay person can find enough information on the Internet in five minutes to question the validity of this news story, how come you can’t?

[Lilpug15]

Please see post #28 for your Palin Pinger archives! :)

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Sarah will simply build stronger callouses and be even stronger than ever! Jeez...I never thought I’d ever thank a ‘Rat, but Thanks libs!