Posted on 11/12/2008 6:31:58 AM PST by reaganaut1
As Richard Nixon wrote, history is written by liberals, but the story of the 2008 campaign is too important to cede to them the analysis of what happened. A close analysis of the returns indicates several key realities:
a) Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCains favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obamas underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin. She provided a rallying point for women who saw their political agenda in terms larger than abortion. She addressed the question of what it is like to be a working mother in todays economy and society and resonated with tens of millions of white women who have not responded to the more traditional, and liberal, advocates for their gender.
b) Turnout did not increase substantially. Despite predictions (by me and others) of a vastly greater voter turnout, it didnt happen. About 127 million people voted in 2008, compared to 122 million in 2004. By contrast, turnout rose by almost 20 million between 2000 and 2004. The emphasis on early voting and the heavy participation in primaries indicated the likelihood of a huge increase in turnout, but, on Election Day, the turnout was modest.
c) The black vote made a huge difference; but young people did not. Obama, as expected, generated a big increase in African-American voter turnout. Fox Newss exit polls estimate that blacks constituted 13 percent of the turnout in 2008, compared with 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. But voters under 30 years of age were still the same 11 percent of the vote that they were in 2004.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
it will be extraordinarily interesting to see Palin go through primary vetting in 2011.
if she choses to run, she will do well, because she will be more prepared.
I would dare anyone sustain the glare she survived with NO prep time, and then bad prep once she was on board.
Certainly in hindsight “Let Sarah be Sarah” would have been a better plan - - - frankly I’m excited to see how Sarah presents herself in 2011 if she choses to run.
I’m not a hard line conservative but the energy she put into the party in Iowa was cool.
I just hope those we’re hearing about who are “Scared” by Palin - give her another look in 2011. The Primary debates, etc will only make her stronger. You could see the growth week to week.
I know a lot of moderate republicans and soft dems that liked Palin - simply because she was real.
I’m not sure Bobby J. will have the same effect.
“c) The black vote made a huge difference; but young people did not. Obama, as expected, generated a big increase in African-American voter turnout”
I have yet to see - anywhere - the numbers for the percentage of the black vote that Obama received. Has anyone those numbers?
In earlier posts here on FR, I predicted that blacks would vote 95-97% for Obama, if not more heavily.
I’m wondering if there hasn’t been an attempt by the media to keep this under wraps...
- John
I agree with you. Don’t forget: she is also loathed for not aborting her baby that is mentally retarted.
The leftists look at her as a moral figure - they would have aborted that baby immediately upon hearing he was going to be mentally retarted. Immediately.
What about John Kasich or Mitch Daniels or Mark Sanford? Any thoughts?
Even I would have voted for a third party candidate out of sheer protest.
I wish I had your optimism, but I'd have to deny the "change" that the radicals have brought to our beloved country.
All are well qualified, but all lack the "wow" factor. Mark Sanford comes the closest-- he's been a legislator as well as an executive and is very well liked in South Carolina. But let's face it: most of America doesn't have the brains and moral grounding of the average South Carolinian. Is there anything to indicate he (or any of the others which you named) have the drive or desire?
All-in-all, I thought Fred Thompson would have been a great president had he put in the effort that a McCain, Romney or Huckabee put in. And we all saw how he fizzled in this modern era of dog and pony shows.
Good points!
He is right.
Yep. I remember most his sorry performance in the last debate about how he bragged about how his vote to confirm Ruth Bader Ginsberg proved he was bipartisan.
Bipartisanship was half-fighting the Iraq War such that even now, Oba Mao and Colin Powell may yet be able to seize defeat from the jaws of victory and ensure there is a third Iraq War. McCain, of all people, should have understood this.
Anyone care to bet on whether his first action with the new congress in January will be (a)to ensure victory in Iraq with a follow-up on the surge or (b)to ensure victory for the left wing by short tracking all illegal aliens to citizenship?
If McCain had chosen Joe Lieberman, Linday Graham, Mike Huckabee or Tom Ridge I would not have voted for him. If he had picked Tim Pawlenty I’d have had to look into his record more but ultimately he probably wouldn’t have motivated me. If he had picked Romney I’d have grudgingly voted for him because I’d figure Romney at least added some economic competence. With Palin I enthusiastically pulled the lever.
WELL! I have got to thank you for that virtually completely hidden tidbit of information regarding Dick Morris in Kenya working for Sharia-partner Odinga.
I really had no idea. I had been thinking that this was a huge black eye for Obama, not to mention even more revealing of his malevolent “I am gonna transform the entire world” character. No wonder this Kenyan thing is not mentioned much of FOX, who continues to have Morris on on a daily basis. And consider this:
they paid obligatory lip service to Corsi, and his Kenyan story, then seemed to have dropped it. So the squelching of THAT story may have more to do with FOX’s not wanting to sour their relationship with Morris as anything else.
Sarah is now on Wolf Blitzer. She wishes that ‘she could have more hours in the day and that she could have spoken to more people.” Then Wolf said: “We tried.” I think that says it all. To the McCain staffers: although McCain would have probably lost anyway, you made it easier for him to lose by shielding Sarah needlessly and not putting her in TV ads during the last week of the campaign.
I don't think that people or groups of people have as much power to change things as the historical environment has to change them. The "radicals" are doubtlessly the dominant reflection of what our country has become. However, Sarah Palin is the new face of a resurgent force that will not be denied. It's up to God whether he gives her the will to persevere. We love her and will carry her forward if God permits.
Yes, He sets above nations whomever He wills....and it appears He has taken His hand from us. Sarah served as a reminder to the faithful that He has justified and will save His remnant out of this world.
I have been living here since 1973, so I agree with you — Massachusetts has never represented what most Americans think. My point is that, unfortunately, I think that may be changing, judging by the election results. I hope I’m wrong, I really do.
He seems to be a Republican now.
McC, Palin, and the RNC refused, REFUSED, I tell you, to use this ammo. You can see the result. In 1992, GWB was handed chapter and verse on Clinton's extremely close ties to Mr. Lasiter... whom he pardoned on a cocaine distribution charge, from whom he took $300,000 which was never paid back, and whom he appointed bond underwriter for the State of Arkansas' Industrial Development Fund, a huge scam which cost the citizens of that benighted stated $.5 Billion in unpaid fake development loans to (e.g. $15 Million to Web Hubbel's Dad). Bush The Elder adamantly refused to bring this up in debate, or anywhere else. You saw that result, too.
A slightly more cynical fellow than myself might be forced to conclude that Bush took a dive in 1992, or that McC, who often made the Dole campaign look positively effervescent, did the same in '08.
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