Posted on 11/02/2008 8:35:04 PM PST by mathwhizz
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Hussein Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. I don't care what any BS poll says. It isn't going to happen.
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote!
If McCain wins both the EC and popularity contest, riots will ensue, under the guise of fraud against the Black man.
Why does the little voice far back in my mind say that is exactly what the media Left wants. Turmoil and violence. Division and distrust. A psychic darkness of distrust between those with polarized views made more severe by a campaign of hateful rhetoric by the Left.
It may be that they know Obama is toast. they're counting on his loss and the tumult it will spawn from his cultish sycophants.
Let’s begin by putting NM (5) and NV (5) in the Obama column & NC (15) in Mac’s Column
With that scenario, If Mac wins FL (27) NH (4) PA (21) OH (20) VA (13) and CO (9)
….it’s over for Obama. EVs = Mac wins 301 - 237
If Mac holds onto the other 5 states listed above & loses PA Mac still wins 280 – 258
Now, if he loses PA and VA (or NC) then Obama wins 267 – 271 (or 265 – 273) & Mac would need NV or NM to win and that is doable, especially NV.
In the original scenario if Mac won only FL, PA and OH and lost NH, VA and CO, with all else remaining constant (incl. He holds onto NC) , Mac still wins 275 – 263
Now, the biggie: With that same scenario, he can lose OH & Mac still wins 272 – 266 IF he carries NH and VA
IF MAC LOSES NC & VA, MAC wins 273 – 265 by holding FL, NH, PA, OH, & CO
If Mac loses any two of these three PA, OH , VA there is no way he wins. He can lose one of the three and still win.
I say Mac will carry FL PA OH NC and even IF he loses VA CO NV NM NH, he still wins 275 – 263.
I LIKE OUR CHANCES
If McCain holds all the states that Bush won then McCain would be president. There are a few (Like New Mexico) that Bush won that McCain can lose and still beat Obama.
The ‘Rats were upset in 2000 because Gore had a plurality in the popular vote of half a million and still came up short in the electoral college. The moonbats who claim that Bush won in 2004 by stealing Ohio are not bothered by the fact that he had a 3-million vote margin in the popular vote over Kerry (and an actual majority of all popular votes cast, unlike Gore).
Agree. I was just pointing out the difficulty of getting 3/4 of the states to agree.
With the right judges, they can do anything they want. Just take a look at the gun laws on the books.
We just had a federal judge rule that the people of this country have no legal standing in policing the Constitutional eligibility of the next President.
I do agree with you though.
CALIFORNIA IS NOT A LOST CAUSE—I’M A LONGTIME DEM NOW ON THE “RIGHT” SIDE VOLUNTEERING FOR GOP/MCCAIN. WE ARE WORKING LA COUNTY HARD TO GET TO THE TIPPING POINT. CA IS A RED STATE EXCEPT FOR SF AND LA, AND WE ARE TURNING A LOT OF PEOPLE IN LA AND ARE NOT FAR BEHIND!!!
IF YOU ARE IN CALI TELL YOUR FRIENDS, FAMILY, ANYONE WHO WILL LISTEN TO GET OUT AND VOTE MCCAIN.
LET’S TAKE THESE 55 MOTHER$%^#ING VOTES AND SHOVE IT RIGHT UP FROBAMA’S ASS!
You may be a “mathwhizz” but Obama isn’t winning California by 25+
Maybe all you know of the state is L.A. & SF, but there are lots of red counties with a fair number of people.
I doubt it. You cannot eliminate the Electoral College without an amendment to the Constitution. Legislatures in three fourths of the states must approve any amendment. Why would the smaller states give up their advantage in the Electoral College?
No, that’s called a flexible interpretation of the Constitution, at least by liberals. It amounts to an amendment, which means we are governed by judicial fiat, not laws. Liberals are fine with that, so long as liberals are the ones who get to make up the laws, and since conservatives are in favor of strict construction, conservatives don’t make up laws. It’s a one way street.
Ditto. The smaller states would be ignored if it was just the popular vote. All the campaigning will center upon high population centers.
But thankfully any “riots” will be supressed very quickly by swat police teams and the ng.
Another newbie troll.
!!!!!
IMO, the Electoral College is a good case in the point that the Founders were pretty damned bright. I enjoy defending the EC and I think it is a great doorway to exposing much brilliance from our Founders.
The more people that know we are NOT a democracy the better. So, bring on the debate. This is an ideological debate that we can win and that we can use as leverage for growth in respect for the Founders.
Just my two cents. Mileage always varies.
Well, the biggest thing working against us on this one, other than the growing momentum against the EC) is the fact that 99% of our own side fails to “get it” when it comes to defending the EC.
All I here on FR are platitudes to republicanism instead of direct democracy, or about it giving slightly more power to the smaller states. Those aren’t what makes the EC valuable.
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