Posted on 11/02/2008 8:35:04 PM PST by mathwhizz
The popular vote is irrelevent. It's unlikely McCain will win the popular vote.
Obama will likely win California and New York by 25 or 30 points or more.
And black turnout in the South will reduce McCain's margins to single digits.
But who cares?
Whether you win a state by 1% or 20%, a win is a win is a win in the electoral college.
All McCain has to do is hold the Bush states and steal Pennsylvania. I believe whoever wins PA will win the election. The west is hard because of the growth in the hispanic population and liberal California refugees. So while I'm still hoping to eke out wins in Nevada and Colorado I am not counting on them.
Let me tell you, I've seen the internals of the PA polls having Obama leading by 7, 8 or more. They are complete and utter BS. They have Obama winning SW Pennsylvania and Northeast PA by 10 points. Hillary won many of those counties 3:1. These are socially conservative voters. These are older voters. They are the salt of the earth people that Obama said clung to their religion and guns. They don't like radical change. They will not vote for B. Hussein Obama who spent 20 years in Wright's church of hate. I don't care what any BS poll says. It isn't going to happen.
If you look at the last Mason Dixon poll that had Obama with a 4 point lead 47-43 with 10% undecided, the vast majority of whom were white and rural in SW and NE PA, this is very, very, very do-able.
Seriously, if you are still undecided after watching Obama carpet bomb the airwaves outspending McCain 4:1, you aren't going to vote for him no matter what. Obama outspent Hillary 4:1 and still lost by 10 points.
McCain will win PA and with it the White House. Do not get discouraged. Get out the vote!
sorry my friend..can’t do it with 10 points..max is between 3-4..really needs 3 or less..
If McCain wins the election while losing the popular vote then we can say good-bye to the electoral college.
would love to see that scenario...Obama winning popular vote but McCain winning EV. Then would love to hear OBama whine how the constitution needs to be amended to allow for the popular vote!
Below is my analysis..10 points no way..i did 4 points below, but really need 3 points or less...maybe can do with a little over 3 points max..
Below is formula for McCain to actually win electorally and not win popular vote on the national polls.
Total Vote Turnout Estimate 2008: 130,000,000
52% Obama 48% McCain *3rd party candidates are excluded for this model
Obama Total Votes: 67,600,000 McCain Votes: 62,400,000
Now we exclude California and New York.
California 12.5 million votes** New York 7.5 million votes**
**polling below
current advantage in California for Obama 20% current advantage in NY for Obama 30%
Totals:
60% to 40% Obama: 7,500,000 California McCain: 5,000,000 California
65% to 35% Obama: 4,875,000 NY McCain: 2,625,000 NY
Totals NY and California:
Obama: 12,375,000 McCain: 7,625,000
Totals minus NY and California
130,000,000 minus 20,000,000 total 110,000,000
Obama minus California and NY is 67,600,000 minus 12,375,000 total is: 55,225,000 McCain minus California and NY is 62,400,000 minus 7,625,000 total is: 54,775,000
Conclusion: At 4% exactly McCain comes at 50%/50% on the short side..If range of total vote goes to the less side of 4% McCain should move ahead. Thus, McCain may win electoral college and lose total popular vote by as much as 4%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ny/new_york_mccain_vs_obama-343.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_mccain_vs_obama-558.html
The obvious retort to that argument is that Hillary Clinton got more votes in the Dem. primaries than Obama did (if you count Michigan’s votes). But the media would cover for him no doubt.
I don't know...Constitutional amendments aren't easy.
If anything, it will make the case for the Electoral College. If McCain wins, the country dodges a big one. Populism is a disease. There have to be checks and balances.
Haha, do you realize what it takes to get a constitutional amendment? Good luck with that.
If this happens the pressures will build to get rid of the electoral college. With a solid Democrat congress, they might just get enough moderate Republicans to get a 2/3 vote in each house of Congress for a constitutional amendment. It seems doubtful that 3/4ths of all the states would ratify such an amendment, but I hope not to find out.
Not necessarily on CA. Gay marriage is on the ballot.
I know that liberals will push this. But I think it requires a constitutional amendment, and I do not think the red states will buy it.
Yep it takes 2/3 vote of each house of Congress, then approval by 3/4ths of the states to amend the constitution. That would take 38 out of 50 states to do away with the electoral college. Are there at least 13 smaller states that would never ratify such an amendment?
That would be an election as usual—this election is unique. If the votes are mainly from large urban areas, and less distributed, could it be possible? I hope we don’t have to find out.
I have to agree with that assessment.
Obama is already claiming he's smarter than all the founders put together, so he will almost certainly lead an assault on this protection from populist/mob rule in his continued drive for tyranny.
AK, ND, SD, MT, NE, OK, KS, UT, NH, MS, AL, LA, ME are no brainers.
Yes, 5 votes on the Supreme Court.
Too many hurdles have to be jumped to amend the Constitution.
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