Posted on 11/01/2008 8:21:56 PM PDT by mathwhizz
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
I love Palin, but she has definitely scared some of the mushy types. Let’s hope the hard cores turn out in force to make up for it.
Barney Frank’s proposed 25% defense cut has a lot of VA voters worried.
As I posted earlier, I believe there is a lot of voter fraud going on in VA. When I went to the Fairfax gov’t center on Wednesday, there was a long line of mentally handicapped waiting to vote (with their handlers, of course) — one older woman in a wheelchair appeared comatose — but they were voting!
Encouraging. This appears to counter the widespread speculation that Virginia would be weaker for McCain than Florida. Add some McCain supporters who are “undecided” or refused to be polled, stir in a PUMA or three, and the Old Dominion looks pretty good.
If the Undecideds go to McCain, he will have 53%. He’s gonna win, don’t give up hope!
There are no undecided black voters and very few undecided hispanic voters. They are voting for socilaism in huge numbers. If the poll is right McCain needs to win the undecideds 65-35 and he wins Virginia. Eminently doable. Now how about some Wright ads in Virginia. Time they see exactly who Barack is.
It may get the ole ulcer going, but that’s the way Obama polls for whatever reason, so that’s what we’ve got to deal with.
Good ad for Hampton Roads. Barney on this and then Barack on his cutbacks live and on videotape.
I trust M/D polling for the mid atlantic states. Being down 4 points this close to election day has me very concerned now. However, it is good to see that there are still a relatively high number of undecided.
Palin didn’t scare anybody. Obama promised everyone a free home and free gas in their car.
Pretty soon he’ll be offering the car as well.
FWIW, they have the lead at ‘3’ not ‘4’.
perhaps... however, during the primaries, Obama always polled better than reality...
Sorry,
Been a long day. :)
Bingo!
What is your source for that statement?
Where do you get four points from?
“The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation’s first black governor.”
My guess is that of this “11%”, a large number of them are in fact registered democrats who would have voted the straight party-line ticket for Hillary, but who can’t come to the point where they’re willing to pull the lever (or make the mark) for Obama. Some will pull it, but many more won’t.
If these voters were going to break in his direction, they would have done so by now. I’ll make another prediction that - to assauge their consciences that they remain [basically] true to their democratic roots - they’ll go into the voting booth and vote a straight-party line on the down-ticket, but either vote McCain/Palin -or- not vote the top spot at all. We could see McCain win while most other VA Republican candidates get stomped.
“The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat”
Several days’ back on FR, there was posted an article on how polls often play out for black candidates. The thrust of the article was that, for blacks, “what you see is what you end up with”, poll-wise. That is to say, that the final number probably reflects the best tally they’ll end up with in the election (note that I said “best”, the final number could be lower, but generally does not go higher).
I’ll speculate that Obama _will_ do a bit better, but that McCain will edge by him to win in a narrow victory. I _would not_ be making this prediction if Obama had already broken the 50% barrier.
I think McCain still has a fighting chance in Virginia.
Rasing my glass (just chocolate milk) in the hope that he takes it!
- John
McCain will win VA by aat least 5%.
They are undecided about telling pollsters what they think.
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