Posted on 11/01/2008 8:21:56 PM PDT by mathwhizz
A new poll commissioned by The Virginian-Pilot concludes the state remains up for grabs. The survey of 625 likely voters found 47 percent supported Obama, 44 percent preferred McCain and a crucial 9 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the race is technically a dead heat.
The telephone survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. on Wednesday and Thursday.
J. Bradford Coker, who oversaw the survey, said the ultimate outcome in Virginia and elsewhere might hinge on whether undecided white voters are willing to vote for Obama, who would be the nation's first African American president.
The Mason-Dixon poll shows that 11 percent of whites are undecided - far more than usual in the closing week of a statewide election, Coker said. The last time the figure was nearly as high was 1989 in Virginia, when Democrat Doug Wilder was elected the nation's first black governor.
Like Obama, Wilder had a small but clear lead in late polls. But on election night, in a phenomenon that came to be known in Virginia as "the Wilder effect," an unexpectedly large Republican vote in predominately white precincts brought GOP nominee Marshall Coleman within a whisker - four-tenths of 1 percentage point - of victory.
Coker said "almost all" of the undecided white voters broke for Coleman on Election Day; a similar break this year could deliver Virginia's 13 electoral votes to McCain.
The same phenomenon occurred in North Carolina's 1990 U.S. Senate race. Democrat Harvey Gantt, an African American, led by 4 percentage points in the final poll only to lose by 6 points on Election Day to Republican Jesse Helms.
"The million-dollar question is whether there will be a Wilder/Gantt effect in the 2008 presidential race," Coker said. "No matter what anyone theorizes, the answer today is that no one knows for sure."
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
How can anyone be undecided at this point?!
Same story in Florida, let us see if the trend continues.
This is a very hopeful poll. This suggests that McCain could win Virginia by about 4 points.
“How can anyone be undecided at this point?!”
They’re not.
They’re voting McCain. They are just telling the pollsters they are undecided.
Wait til the “undecides” catch a glimpse of the Wright ad showinging in Va.
Your voting McCain but don’t want to tell the pollster.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Exactly. Can you say P.U.M.A.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1027_635.aspx
The Bradley/Wilder Effect
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the — unproved — assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.
The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)
-snip-
Story is biased as expected..actually it was 47 to 45..not 47 to 44
Barack hasn’t closed the deal. Lying about his Aunt won’t help him in Virginia, Pa. Ohio or North Carolina. Games not over yet.
Very good news. Look at Obama’s top line number. Based on his performance in the primaries, it is extremely unlikely that he outperforms this number.
They don't want to be thought of as racist by not telling the Pollster that they are going for McCain??
Exactly. Can you say P.U.M.A.
Just look at the undecideds. Not your typical Obama voter
True, but most are not thinking about Mark Warner...that changes the entire question. Are these folks going for Mark Warner but still the Republican President or not sure of which presidential candidate, but absolutely voting Mark Warner...that would be nice to know.
They’re not undecided and they’re not voting for Obama.
Laughable. 625 voters out of 4.3 million that is 0.006%. Data has a 10-15% error in it. Fauxbama is going to get crucified here in VA. McCain has nearly 75% of the Catholic/Evangelical vote here.
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