Obama's Spiral of Silence

Townhall.com ^ | October 31, 2008 | Wynton Hall

[Kaslin]

If Sen. Barack Obama loses the presidency or wins by far narrower margins than the double-digit lead some mainstream media polls predict, his weak performance will not be the result of the so-called “Bradley Effect,” which holds that black candidates underperform at the polls due to latent racism. Rather, the true culprit will be something public opinion scholars call the “Spiral of Silence Theory.”

In the 1970s, German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann introduced a provocative and startling theory of mass communication she called the “Spiral of Silence.” Noelle-Neumann argued that when mass media create an impression that the majority of society holds one view on a topic, those who hold minority opinions are cowed into a “spiral of silence” for fear of reprisal or isolation from those in the majority.

Since Noelle-Neumann introduced the Spiral of Silence, many studies have confirmed her theory. In fact, some scholars have discovered that her theory seems even more accurate when applied to the Internet than television alone.

Whether Mr. Obama’s chief political strategist, David Axelrod, has knowingly leveraged the Spiral of Silence phenomenon is unclear. However, with more than willing accomplices in the liberal mainstream media, Mr. Obama has ridden a mediated tidal wave of support through the jaw-dropping imbalance of positive news coverage his campaign has received. If the Spiral of Silence thesis is accurate, this means that the lopsided liberal coverage—not Mr. Obama’s race—will have been responsible for silencing support for Senator McCain in national polls.

Compounding the Spiral of Silence phenomenon are the ever-popular “poll of polls” that have emerged this presidential cycle more than in elections past. Indeed, every day journalists and columnists cite in their stories these aggregate poll ratings. Yet most serious public opinion scholars believe that there are real methodological problems with averaging multiple poll results. As President Ronald Reagan’s pollster and chief political strategist, Dick Wirthlin, explains, “Averaging polls is kind of like sticking someone’s head in an oven and their legs in ice and then taking their temperature. ‘On average’, they are feeling just fine and at a normal body temperature. But their ‘average’ temperature does not accurately reflect their present reality.”

Here again, following the Spiral of Silence Theory, when questionable polling data—much of which comes from liberal mainstream media outlets—is passed off as incontrovertible fact, individuals who hold minority opinions tend to clam up for fear of social isolation or being ostracized by the majority.

Yet regardless of these facts, should Mr. Obama lose the election or win it with narrower than expected margins, we can be sure that those in the mainstream media and Mr. Obama’s supporters (one in the same, really) will ignore the Spiral of Silence in favor of the so-called “Bradley Effect.”

As with so much else in this presidential election, liberals will not allow “facts” to get in the way Mr. Obama’s messianic message.

[Kaslin]

If When Sen. Barack Obama loses the presidency.....

Yet regardless of these facts, should when Mr. Obama lose loses the election...

Much better

[I_Like_Spam]

Where did people get the idea that the Bradley effect has anything to do with “racism”?

Actually it would seem that the effect is due to people concerned about being thought of as racists by the polltakers, not “being” racists”.

[livius]

Whether Mr. Obama’s chief political strategist, David Axelrod, has knowingly leveraged the Spiral of Silence phenomenon is unclear.

This was a very interesting article. I'm sure Axelrod was aware of all these things. People have identified a lot of the tactics he has been using and they're practically text-book.

I think the problem is that the rest of us really weren't prepared for it. And the press and media, because of the type of person who goes into these fields in the first place, are very popularity-oriented and herd-driven.

[Cindy]

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[autumnraine]

This article is pretty accurate.

Even in rural Tennessee, people almost whisper when discussing voting for McCain. And that’s in rural Tennessee! I see way more McCain signs and do a little jump when I see them, but we are almost a subculture. A nodding of understanding when meeting a fellow McCain/Palin supporter.

A silent majority indeed. And we will all be called racists for not swallowing the load of bull Obama wants to cram down our throats. He has become so sure of his Presidency, even picking out his cabinet and offering favors for positions, that he has bought what his people have spun. That the world overwhelmingly wants him.

I am even wondering if Europe is waking up a little. Oh sure, they will bluster and call us stupid, but I have a feeling more than a few will breath a sigh of relief when he loses.

[CE2949BB]

Bookmark.

[Kaslin]

Don’t worry what the Euro weenies or the world thinks. We know we are right

[Kaslin]

Re your first graphic. See my tagline. Notice how I spell his name? That is not the letter O

[rightwingextremist1776]

The spiral of silence may work in a public arena but one place it won't work is in the privacy of the voting booth...

[SumProVita]

“This was a very interesting article. I’m sure Axelrod was aware of all these things. People have identified a lot of the tactics he has been using and they’re practically text-book.”

I agree. However, there are two things that Mr. Axlerod seems not to understand very well: the power of prayer and the common sense of many Americans.

[mlocher]

This is a phenomena that is seen in many venues. At work (don’t tell the boss he is wrong), in school (don’t speak up against global warming) and in many other places.

[wintertime]

Very clever “O” there!

[Gorzaloon]

FWIW, in my town, there are NO bumpers stickers for either side, and very very few yard signs... And the proportion of those signs is about equal.

There is one hardcore with Kerry and Obumba signs all over the yard, but he probably works for the State anyway, and is trying to keep his job, or keep his legs from being broken.

[devere]

“Actually it would seem that the effect is due to people concerned about being thought of as racists by the polltakers, not “being” racists”.”

Absolutely correct.

[grey_whiskers]

DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING DING!

NO MORE CALLS, PLEASE.

WE HAVE A HOLE IN ONE!!!!!

Consider yourself *HIGHLY* commended for posting this, sir!

Money quote:

In the 1970s, German political scientist Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann introduced a provocative and startling theory of mass communication she called the “Spiral of Silence.” Noelle-Neumann argued that when mass media create an impression that the majority of society holds one view on a topic, those who hold minority opinions are cowed into a “spiral of silence” for fear of reprisal or isolation from those in the majority.

Add Cloward-Piven to this (with Dem voter fraud) and you have the decline of the country from the 1960s until today, fully explained.

Cheers!

[grey_whiskers]

I agree. However, there are two things that Mr. Axlerod seems not to understand very well: the power of prayer and the common sense of many Americans.

And the hotness of Sarah Palin.

Vote for the Hottie
Not for the Haughty

Cheers!

[bert]

” I can not vote for that boy with the funny name” 85 year old matriarch of Democrat UMWA east Kentucky family

[randita]

Axelrod knew that Obama couldn’t win the election by n means, so the extraordinary had to be employed; the illusion of invincibility, gaming the caucus states, inflation of Democrat voter rolls by ACORN to skew polls, foregoing public financing so a huge amount of money could be raised (much of it illegally, but untraceably with pre-paid credit cards and lax screening, so it will never be prosecuted) to flood the airwaves with unanswered ads. They were betting on a fawning and complicit media and hoodwinked pollsters, not a risky bet at all.

The bad economy was a huge gift. Took the focus off national security and allowed Obama to play a conservative and tout tax cuts which were really wealth distribution, but without J the P, the sheeple would not have found that out.

Bait columnists and pundits to play the race card now and then, to cow McCain supporters into being silent and pick up voters troubled by white guilt. Turn rallies into rock concerts and bus huge crowds in. Play into the “everyone wants to be on the side of a winner” game.

Amass a huge lead by election day and coast to victory. But it’s hard to maintain an illusion for 2 full years. The mask is bound to slip off once in a while and it has, thank goodness.

An anecdote which supports this article. A neighbor of mine, whom I just assumed was a Democrat showed up with her kids on Halloween. Her son was dressed as Joe the Plumber, complete with McCain/Palin cap and plunger. I said “Go, McCain Palin” and the neighbor gave me an incredulous look. “You’re for McCain”, she said and I replied, “Big time.” She said she thought everyone was voting for Obama.

[livius]

“You’re for McCain”, she said and I replied, “Big time.” She said she thought everyone was voting for Obama.

I've had the same experience.

[mad_as_he$$]

I think it was Vannity that said yesterday that some pollsters are finding as much as 80% of those called refusing to answer their questions. If true, very interesting.