Posted on 10/30/2008 10:54:04 PM PDT by RobinMasters
John McCain has the upper hand in the November 4th election. How can I say that when the polls show Obama leading by anywhere from one (IBD, the most accurate pollster the last time out) to 13 from the folks who brought you Dan Rather and the use of forged documents to try and steal the election just four years ago. A brief look at the methodolgy of these polls -- the degree of over-sampling of Democrats corresponding almost to perfection with the degree of Obama's "lead" in them -- shows a tight race, with McCain actually leading by a point or two.
This reality is underscored by events within the campaigns which, when analyzed, show an Obama camp in desperation.
1) The politically savvy Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, is clearly panicking. Rendell has publicly begged the Obama campaign to send their star back to the state for no less than THREE major events to "close the deal" on a state that should have been closed for the leftists month ago.
And it's no wonder the campaign is panicking, an Obama internal poll was accidentally released to the media and it shows The Anointed One in a statistical dead heat with his American hero opponent. And this was BEFORE John Murtha basically parrotted Obama's San Francisco speech in which The Anointed One candidly spoke of his disdain for the people of Pennsylvania. Murtha may not be as eloquent as The One, but the condescension and disrespect that he has for the people who "cling" to their Christianity and constitutional rights is exactly the same.
(Excerpt) Read more at regularfolksunited.com ...
This post brought me hope (not the Obama kind of “hope”) but real hope, the good kind. Gonna stay positive here. :)
I was thinking today.... Why don’t ALL these friggin pollsters take an equal percentage from both sides of the political spectrum when they do these polls?? Why do I always see, for example, 38% Dems polled and 30% Republicans. What the hell?
Rendell is complaining that Obama is not delivering on the “street money” that the city Dems rely on to get out the vote. that won’t hurt Obama in the majority Black or liberal wards, but could damage him mightily in the other areas of the city.
Barring outrageous amounts of voter fraud (by “outrageous” I mean way more than usual) Obama will not get the margin he needs in the city to tip the state, IMO.
Because (as someone put it to me recently) Most republicans are at work when the pollsters are calling during the weekdays and on the weekends they are out w/ their families - that’s not to be taken the wrong way since dems work too but ya know...
Is the electorate equally divided?
That hurt Obama in the primary against Hillary.
I thought that he would have learned his lesson, you have to pay to get those votes!
Its funny. Obama has so much money ... I think in the end he will use street money to buy votes. Its pretty much the lay of the land in places like Philadelphia and detroit.
Its funny. Obama has so much money ... I think in the end he will use street money to buy votes. Its pretty much the lay of the land in places like Philadelphia and detroit.
It’s not about hope. It’s about numbers.
Here’s what is going on.
1) Pollsters and the media focused very early on the big numbers appearing in the Dem primaries. It essentially frightened them into weighting almost everything.
2) As best I know there seems to be NO pollster just reporting the raw, random sample. Everyone is weighting by party ID this cycle. If someone knows of a pure random sample getting reported, speak up.
3) The supposed Democrat registration machine is, based on preliminary data, NOT producing what was intended. The early voting data from various places indicate clearly that there’s no enormous shift being seen in the votes cast as regards party ID.
4) All the pollsters DO HAVE the pure random samples available. They weight them after the fact. This is a bit bad. If the random samples differed hugely with the post weighting result, they would get scared and stop weighting.
5) The no response result of calls is at a historical high. This is bizarre. What is more bizarre is the large number of undecideds that remain, even given the no response total. Why do samples answer the phone and go through the survey in order to say undecided? Why not refuse to respond? Weird.
6) The early vote results being seen make it pretty clear at this point that the polls showing huge leads for Obama are way off. The bad news is . . . McCain seems to lead in none of the polls. He’ll need a few more undecideds to break his way to sway the IBD and other close polls and walk into Tuesday with a few showing a lead. And no sooner, actually. Unlikely voters remain unlikely if they think they have won.
More on Evan Sayet:
ES spoke at the Heritage Foundation about a couple of years (3-4?)ago; How Modern Liberals Think.
What little I know of him is this: He was a 'true believer' of liberalism but then 9/11 happened and it changed him. He has a comedy routine also and tours and does well with it.
Here are the results of a YouTube search on, 'Sayet.'
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Sayet is a smart guy and is certainly no Pollyanna. If he thinks McCain is going to win then I feel a little better about his chances.
There are so many unknowns in this election that is it is really hard to say. If Republicans show up McCain should win by at least 4 nationally. It is mainly the indecorous perfidy that plagues the larger cities that concerns me most.
Plus, the polls are done on landlines, not cell phones.
So whatcha basically have is a bunch of pollsters calling people in the daytime on landline phones who are hanging out watching Oprah or “The Young and the Restless.”
Dandy sample there!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Watch the stock market tomorrow...if it rises significantly, then, McCain/Palin will win.
We have heard about the surge in Democrat registration and about how all these Republicans switch parties to vote in the primaries.
We have also heard about Operation Chaos, and how many of these Republicans were intending to vote McCain in the general all along, but wanted to vote Clinton in the primary to sabotage "The One"
I haven't heard much about the other way around. How many Republicans voted Obama in the primary, because they wanted to put the last nail in the coffin of the Clintons for good?
We have heard estimates of how many Clinton Primary voters will vote Obama in the General, but the real question now is:
"How many Obama Primary voters will NOT vote Obama in the General?"
>>
I was thinking today.... Why don’t ALL these friggin pollsters take an equal percentage from both sides of the political spectrum when they do these polls?? Why do I always see, for example, 38% Dems polled and 30% Republicans. What the hell?
>>
I just touched on this. The pollsters are big believers in the new paradigm of Dem registering everything that walks on two legs. They saw the big numbers voting in the Dem primaries and it has scared them.
They make random calls and they Don’t Arrange It, but they do get X% Dem, Y% GOP and Z% Independent. That’s who answered the phone. Then they weight them with all sorts of stuff based on who they have persuaded themselves are going to show up . . . but are homeless and have no phone.
Party ID is self identified from the call. More Dems than GOP are responding. Don’t presume that GOP call recipients are family people and refuse to respond more than Dems. Maybe they do, but pollsters have been able to observe this a long time and if such a bias existed, they would weight for it.
UNLESS. Unless behavior changes. And it may. Advertising saturation can turn off the electorate and it can do so in a non equal manner. Turnout might not be what is expected so those models can be wrong. Apparently turnout is expected to be not just huge, but gargantuan and if that proves true, the additional black vote to occur plus maybe some extra appearances from the young may be simply swamped out by the sheer numbers of others.
This election is not over. The leads are potentially invalid. The leads are so diverse that it’s clear that there is no consensus among pollsters as to turnout.
For those who haven't seen it, here's Evan's brilliant speech on the nature of liberalism at the Heritage Foundation.
Thanks Owen. This makes sense.Well thought out. I appreciate your reply.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.