Enough said.
Posted on 10/30/2008 3:55:12 PM PDT by WatchYourself
Rasmussen's latest North Carolina Poll gives Obama a 50-48 edge. But the internals tell a different story. McCain holds support of 93% of Republicans while Obama holds the support of just 86% of Democrats. McCain also holds an 11% advantage among independents.
In 2004, there were more Republicans than Democrats voting in this red-leaning state, (40-39%). If you want to assume that Democrats have closed that 1% gap, you can't ignore the fact that McCain has a 6-point advantage in Party Support and an 11 Point advantage in Independent support.
The internals should point to a 6-8 point lead for McCain. The only way Rasmussen's math works is if the Democratic Party now has a 10% edge in voter turnout.
(He also has Dole losing by 6, so I'm guessing she is up by 2)
I heard this morning that Mason Dixon had Liddy Dole up by 4.
You know why Obama keeps having to beg for money? He has to keep paying off these pollsters.
The numbers just make no sense this year.
Well anyone that thinks that Rasmussen isn’t blatently in the tank for Obama, needs their head examined.
I just can’t see NC going for Obama.
McCain will carry this state and Dole will be re-elected.
RASS should rename these polls the Tapeworm polls, since they pop up randomly with no warning, he pulls them out of his a$$ and then goes and tells everyone he knows about them all while feigning hysteria.
Weds Ras will be axing the Feds to change their results. Now we know why he had all those Hilary surprises.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Rassmussen’s polls in NC make perfect sense when you realize that he polled 900 random people found in Chapel Hill Starbucks locations.
-PJ
Do you think that Ras could be part of the reason that Fox News (staight news division) seems to be glossing over Obama negatives and highlighting Obama leaning polls. Maybe Ras has Britt, et al convinced that Obama is going to win.
I can’t think of any other reason for the complete lack of interest by Fox (other than Hannity) to look at the poll internals and wonder if McCain is not dead even or perhaps ahead.
Rasmussen deathwatch...
5 days and counting
That could be. The other possibility is that they’re just a bunch of inside the beltway hacks who don’t have a clue what the rest of the country is thinking.
Rasmussen oversamples Democrats by 6%. That accounts for most of the discrepancy you found. The PUMAs, who tell pollsters they are voting for Obama when they intend to vote for McCain, account for another part of the discrepancy, although I’m not sure by how much.
“Sand People always ride in single file to hide their numbers.” - Obi Wan Kenobi
“Tapeworm Polls”???
Dude you owe me a new keyboard!!!!! And boy does it ever hurt when Pepsi comes flying out of your nose.....
NC has a lot of registered Democrats that NEVER vote for the RAT Senator or Rat prez. Its hard to poll NC accurately in any case. My guess is NC will go Republican for pres and guv but at this point Dole may be out. While Dole isnt much to brag on for conservatives she is better than our other light weight senator by far....lil dickie burr.
NOrth carolina was a given.....what matters is Virgina. Where is that at???
The internals are telling pretty much the the same story as the 2004 exit poll. Bush won Republicans 96-4, Kerry won Democrats by only 84-16, and Independents voted for Bush 56-41. Bush won the state by 12 points (amounting to about 435,000 votes). And all this despite 26% black turnout. Imagine that.
It doesn't add up (like the '95%' figure).
I know this is all anecdotal but I had several people tell me they were Dems voting for the GOP for the first time. One man said he was on his way to take his 90 yo MIL to vote for a Republican for the first time in her life. We also had a group of Gay men come in wanting a Gay voting for McCain sign, LOL. Of course we don't have any so we had to offer them a regular sign.
Palin will be here on Sat. and we gave out about 1000 tickets in just a few hours. We had a group of 4 teenagers walk in off the street and volunteer to make phone calls. I think NC will go for McCain based on how charged up everyone is to vote and they are close to having more people volunteer than they have work for. I don't trust the polls.
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