Obama is a Marxist
Posted on 10/27/2008 12:56:19 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
Some real numerical analysis from the Commonwealth of Virginia, tells a slightly different tales from the one portrayed in the national media, and their criminal accomplices the pollsters.
The narrative being spun around the country by the astroturfing propaganda machine on steroids Obama campaign is that there is a ton of huge new voter registration and new voters that will carry Obama to a prolific landslide victory. But the actual historical numbers tell a different story, but a story that is becoming increasingly common this cycle. The statistics support this election being very normal and conventional.
Below are the actual voter registration statistics for the past 4 election cycles.
1992- 3055486 Registered voters statewide
1996- 3322740 Registered voters statewide (+8.7)
2000- 4073644 Registered voters statewide (+18.4%)
2004- 4517980 Registered voters statewide (+10.9%)
10/2008- 4890393 Registered voters statewide (+8.2%)
What this shows us is that Virginia's increase in registered voters is completely in line with the normal increases over the past 16 years. Now how has the increase in voters affected the results in the state? Let's analyze those stats. The best comparison is a comparison between state margin of victory and the national numbers relatively. Here goes
1996- Dems 45.1% Reps 47.1% MOV Reps +2 Nationally Dems +9% (Republicans beat national number by 11%) Voters increased by 8.7%
2000- Dems 44.4% Reps 52.5% MOV Reps +8.1% Nationally Dems +.5% (Republicans beat national number by 8.6%) Voters Increased by 18.4%
2004- Dems 45.8% Reps 53.6% MOV Reps +7.8% Nationally Reps +2.5% (Republicans beat national number by 5.3%) Voters Increased by 10.9%
2008- ??? Voters have increased by 8.2%
The moral of the story is this, with huge additional voter registrations, Virginia is getting more competitive, which portends its status as a battleground state this election and for the next one as well. However, total new voter increase is slowing down, and with the massive new voters in the past two cycles, the GOP has still maintained the same percentage edge in presidential contests. GOP outperforms the national number in Virginia which would mean that if Obama wants to claim Virginia, he will need a decisive national popular vote margin possibly 7% or more.
At this point, none of the legitimate polls show him with that level of lead, and as much as the Obama campaign has penned a lovely narrative of transformative voter numbers, the stats don't support it.
If Obama can't win Virginia, his options for an electoral college victory rest in the west. He would have to flip CO, NV, and NM and hold all the other Kerry States. And as previous analysis has shown, CO will be close, but it doesn't appear that they have done enough to overtake the Republican advantage there.
What state do you live in???
I hope you are right! We have to win this thing!
GA
From your lips to God’s ear.
Thought so!!!!
Nice analysis. Thanks...
Appreciate the numbers. The issue, I believe, is this information about VA voter registration this year: 300K registered as of end of September, with 42% in the 18-24 range. Also, at least 20% of the new registrants are minorities. The CW is that BO gets about 75% of the youth vote.
The question is — have there been any serious registration efforts by the GOP/conservative orgs in VA this year?
I think you’re missing one thing...each year the # Republicans beat the national # by is decreasing.
I live in VA and it’s been trending to the Rats for a while. I think what may hurt us is military spouses wanting their loved ones home from the war...they are supporting Obama more than a typical military spouse would support a Rat.
The point is that even with higher percentages of new voters in recent elections, the margin within the state has remained stable in 2000 and 2004. Every one of the new voters would have to show up and vote dem in order to flip the margin.
I am currently trying to find the biggest change in vote percentage from one cycle to the next with the state actually changing from red to blue or vice versa.
I realize that there is alot of statistics like the youth and minority, and someone else mentioned the military spouses voting Obama, but the point is that we are being told that huge changes are happening rapidly, but historically, it takes quite a while to change a state from red to blue, and certainly to cover 7.5% in one election cycle is a tough one to imagine.
The stories are just that. Stories. Hard numbers tell the tale my FRiend. And the thing about VA is that the turnout numbers are always sky high 68-72% in presidential elections. So that makes it even harder to imagine that edge being overtaken, because it is incredibly difficult to increase that level of turnout.
Tampa Fla. Early voted today in capitalist area. Line around library took 2 hours. 100 to 1 white. Holding the line agaist the communists. Capitalists here are fighting hard to hold against commies assualt from Southeast Florida. Pennsylvanians need to get out and kick some ass.
There are two conservative universities in Virginia.
1. Liberty University (Lynchburg)
2. Regents University (Virginia Beach)
Those should break well for McCain, but it may boil down to how many PUMA’s in Virginia don’t want a Marxist in the White House who will certainly be tested by our enemies in first six months (right from Biden’s lips to Virginia voters ears). The military vote is strong for McCain so if Virginia is really close I would think that we would have to wait for the absentee votes of military to come in. Does anyone know if the Secretary of State in Virginia is GOP or Democrat?
Love your report from the frontlines. =) Good job soldier.
It’s too bad if military spouses in Virginia feel compelled to go for Obama. He’ll be tested in first six months and the military will be engaged in serious conflict, just not commanded as well as if McCain was in charge.
Yep! I agree that is a big factor!
After the Denver Post showed a poll that had Obama leading by 10 points they did a racism piece today. Sounds like he is tanking in Colorado too.
Doing what I can Pahdner. We capitalists have a lot of firepower no matter what happens in Washington. Free Republic is so cool. Before I found FR I thought I was out here in a foxhole by myself. If the communists win the election we can form a a non-violent resistance that they can not put down. They can only beat us if they can isolate us. WE have the power. A new MLK will emerge on our side. I think all we gotta do is coordinate our wallets before they ge ahold of em.
I live in Virginia too and the Commonwealth is not trending democrat. Democrats are getting elected when they run as conservatives against weak and stupid republicans. And then they just barely win. It took Webb, the fulltime attention of the Washington Post editorial staff and Macaca to defeat George Allen by a fraction of a percent.
Obama is a threat to National Security and Virginians are smart enought to recognize that. I think the stuff about military wifes being for Obama is a bunch of hooey. I know many military families and many, many of them vote in their home state or in FL by absentee ballot BTW.
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