Posted on 10/27/2008 9:00:13 AM PDT by Brookhaven
Karl Rove made a statement in passing on Fox news got passed over, but as time has passed I've decided it is the unspoken key to this election. Paraphrased:
Whatever Sen. Obama is polling on election day is the percentage of votes he will receive. That's what happened in the primaries. It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.
It took a while for it to sink it, but what he is saying is that the undecided vote will go almost 100% against Obama. When you look at polls, there is a tendency to assume the undecided vote will split for the candidates along the same lines as the decided voters (or that each candiate will get a big portion of the undecided vote. Rove deosn't seem to believe that to be true.
This does seem to make sense to me from one standpoint. Obama by rights should be running away with this race. He's not. The reason seems to be that Obama can't seal the deal with undecided voters. Their undecided because they are unsure about Obama (as opposed to liking both candidates but can't make up their mind about which one to vote for.)
Does anyone have any numbers on what Obama polled in the primary vs. actual votes to backup/disprove Rove's statement?
Did Rove ask the question, or is that YOU asking?
I believe that 10% to 12% undecided block in most polls is going to be what is the shcocker in this election. How many are not undecided but don’t want to say who they are voting for? How many, when they get in the privacy of the booth, with go for decades of experience over American Idol. I think all the American Idol voters have been counted in the polls.
I’m asking the question. Rove stated it as though it was a fact (or I should say it was implied in his statement that I paraphrased.)
“undecided” = “doesn’t want anyone to know they will vote against the black guy”
Not sure, Forrest.
According to Michael Barone, 80% of undecideds went for Hillary during the primaries.
I’ve been saying that for weeks. (But I’m not Karl...lol)
Any state where Zero has less than 50%, he will lose.
Many of the polls that have him over 50% are weighted with a ridiculous number of Dems vs past election history.
This includes some of the national polls.
I think the national polls right now are about like this:
Obama: 48
McCain: 44
If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.
I suspect that most of the 10%-15% undecideds are decided and will go with McCain/Palin. If so, Obama is toast...
That's one of the reasons that the polling data is suspect.
Different reasons for different people.
For some, they fear recrimination from their union bosses if the pollster is working for them somehow.
If the person asking the questions is black, they may be more likely to say they are undecided, so as not to offend.
Some just won’t admit to anyone that they’re not voting Democrat, but won’t vote for Zero.
Oh.
I think 95% or more will go to McCain. I have no historical stats or anything to back me up, just my hunch.
“In the primaries, Obama never received a higher number than he polled and usually got 1 - 2% less than he polled.”
That would seem to be a major factor when deciding how this election is going to play out, yet other than the Rove comment I can’t remember anyone pointing that out.
I have read elsewhere that BOTH campaign expect the “UNDECIDEDS” to break Strongly for McCain
“undecided” = “doesn’t want anyone to know they will vote against the black guy”
= “present”
People know McCain, not Obama.
Obama’s campaign theme of “change” from the current administration would make a lot more sense if the current administration was up for re-election. I don’t believe that Obama has been able to effectively tie McCain to the current administration.
That McCain has butted heads with Bush over the last 7 years and is not seen as a doctrinaire conservative Republican is a very good thing when it comes to winning over the independents and disaffected Democrats.
That would seem to be a major factor when deciding how this election is going to play out, yet other than the Rove comment I can’t remember anyone pointing that out.
Because it's wrong. Obama received a higher actual result than he polled in about half the contests. In Indiana, for instance, he came in better than the average of the polls predicted. Same with Maryland and Virginia, and lots of other states.
If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.Not necessarily. A national average of 49% may not translate into an electoral college victory.
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