[snarkytart]

Did Rove ask the question, or is that YOU asking?

[mnehring]

I believe that 10% to 12% undecided block in most polls is going to be what is the shcocker in this election. How many are not undecided but don’t want to say who they are voting for? How many, when they get in the privacy of the booth, with go for decades of experience over American Idol. I think all the American Idol voters have been counted in the polls.

[MrB]

“undecided” = “doesn’t want anyone to know they will vote against the black guy”

[shaft29]

Not sure, Forrest.

[Ol' Sparky]

According to Michael Barone, 80% of undecideds went for Hillary during the primaries.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I’ve been saying that for weeks. (But I’m not Karl...lol)

Any state where Zero has less than 50%, he will lose.

Many of the polls that have him over 50% are weighted with a ridiculous number of Dems vs past election history.

This includes some of the national polls.

I think the national polls right now are about like this:

Obama: 48

McCain: 44

[ElkGroveDan]

It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.

If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.

[avacado]

I looked at the polls from 2004 and at this time in October there were 1%-3% undecideds. This year there are 10%-15% undecideds. Obama has had 20 months to close the deal and he has not be able to do it.

I suspect that most of the 10%-15% undecideds are decided and will go with McCain/Palin. If so, Obama is toast...

[TexasNative2000]

In the primaries, Obama never received a higher number than he polled and usually got 1 - 2% less than he polled.

That's one of the reasons that the polling data is suspect.

[Harry Wurzbach]

People know McCain, not Obama.

Obama’s campaign theme of “change” from the current administration would make a lot more sense if the current administration was up for re-election. I don’t believe that Obama has been able to effectively tie McCain to the current administration.

That McCain has butted heads with Bush over the last 7 years and is not seen as a doctrinaire conservative Republican is a very good thing when it comes to winning over the independents and disaffected Democrats.

[Rockingham]

The reasoning is that a long dominant candidate like Obama becomes a quasi-incumbent, and the rule of thumb is that undecideds break against the incumbent. Recent polling shows that McCain seems to be closing the gap, his campaign message is better focused on the traditional Republican issues ot taxes and spending, and Obama’s “spread the wealth” views are getting some play via the Internet, talk radio, and Fox News.

[kevkrom]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that it’s quite possible. The “undecided” block has, in some previous elections, broken overwhelmingly toward one candidate, typically the one that is either underfunded or at a disadvantage in media perception (or both), as the “favorite” candidate fails to “seal the deal” prior to election day.

However, there’s no guarantee that that will happen in any given election; it’s just interesting to note that such a thing has happened before.

[pgkdan]

That’s the way it happened in the primaries. If polling showed O-48% and H-46% the final would be O-48% and H-52%. She’d pick up all the so-called undecideds.

[johnny7]

[Poison Pill]

Whatever Sen. Obama is polling on election day is the percentage of votes he will receive. That's what happened in the primaries. It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.

I have heard Dick Morris (ok, ok, I know...) explain this dynamic as well. When Morris was working for Clinton on his re-election for governor in Arkansas, he got polling data two days before the election that Clinton has slipped below 50%. It was the middle of the night. He got over to the governors mansion, dragged Clinton out of bed and the two went over to the recording studio and cut ads in the middle of the night to address the issue. The ads worked and Slick was reelected.

The 12% undecided number is huge. If Obama goes into the election with it, he loses.

[ansel12]

I share this view, the majority of people that are undecided at this point are people that have not been able to be persuaded to convince themselves to vote for Obama.

In the end they will vote for the ticket that is more comfortable and traditional. Undecideds at this stage of the election are not daring, let’s go for it and see whats on the other side!, type of people.

[chris_bdba]

I have a feeling Rove is right and think that perhaps the undecided’s are not really that way but would rather not tell the pollsters what they really think for fear of being called racist or worse having the Secret Service called on them like the one person did!