Posted on 10/26/2008 9:19:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
I have been noting that national polls and some state polls may be way off based on optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive lead is the early voting opportunities, which have not shown what Obama and the media have been saying is a huge democrat wave, like 2006.
First there was early voting and registration in Ohio, where Obama’s campaign promised to make huge gains - only to fall 80% short of their mark. All the hype in Ohio was pure fantasy when it came to Obama getting out the vote with this massive wave, which turned out to be barely a ripple.
Second, Gallup came out with poll numbers showing the amount of early voters between Obama and McCain show no huge wave for Obama, but actually a dead even race. Even though Gallup’s own national poll models showed a huge lead for Obama, it was not showing up in the early voting.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
No....they know they can only game the system so long....eventually they will report a “surge” for McCain so they can at least make their margin of error.....They know if they miss badly they'll be laughed out of town and lose a ton of business down the road (mark my words....)
i thought Dems were the early voters and Repubs did absentee...
Some like Rasmussen are REALLY in the tank for Obama. He was laughably wrong in the primaries. Now he keeps adjusting the target weighting for Democrats higher and higher each week. It’s the height of absurdity. And he always reports dutifully when he changes his target weights.
Now he either has to drastically reverse the weights (and explain why) or claim that Obama only wins 60% of Democrats in order to show McCain winning. Either way it’s going to look rigged.
I wonder how much of Barry’s $600mil went to pollsters? The entire Obama campaign is run on the image of ‘inevitability’ from primary to general election.
Many states didn’t have early voting in previous elections.
I figured the safest way to be sure I counted was to show up on election day...even that isn't a guarantee, some lawyer won't contest it. This will go to the courts.
Unfortunately, that is my recollection as well.
“The constitution already says the election will be on the first tuesday of november. Early voting is unconstitutional.”
Why isn’t this pointed out more often?
Interesting reminder on the early-voting history with Kerry in FL—thanks.
Actually his average is 33 percent accurate.
I’m doing the same, I have my voter registration card, three photo IDs, and my plunger all ready to go!
Your memory seems flawed. Here is a report on Florida.
http://earlyvoting.net/resources/EVIC_APSA_2005.pdf
See figure 1. It shows that the independents turn out the heaviest in early voting, followed by the democrats and the GOP pulling up the rear.
Further, it shows the Dems have a much lower ratio of turnout on voting day than early turnout while the GOP stays about the same.
Aren’t early votong and absentee ballots two different things? I know that historically, Republicans always dominate absentee ballots.
And if the polls were that far off when Obama was going up against another Democrat, then wouldn’t they be even less accurate when he’s going up against a Republican?
If Ras is off by +10 in 2000, -10 in 2008, and 0 in 2000, he’s off by 0 points on average. I was joking. :o)
For archival and backup purposes, your contribution is safely stored on my hard drive. :)
“IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Fifteen
Posted Monday, October 27, 2008
After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama’s lead slipped to 2.8 Monday. Battleground also has Obama up 3, and other polls have tightened, including Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup to 5. Some polls show swings in independents, but IBD/TIPP has them in a stable, 5-point range.”
excerpt http://ibdeditorials.com/PollsMain.aspx
It’s tightening. Let’s all step up our efforts.
bump for the day
Bump the closer we get to this election I am clearly seeing this.
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