Posted on 10/26/2008 9:19:37 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
I have been noting that national polls and some state polls may be way off based on optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive lead is the early voting opportunities, which have not shown what Obama and the media have been saying is a huge democrat wave, like 2006.
First there was early voting and registration in Ohio, where Obama’s campaign promised to make huge gains - only to fall 80% short of their mark. All the hype in Ohio was pure fantasy when it came to Obama getting out the vote with this massive wave, which turned out to be barely a ripple.
Second, Gallup came out with poll numbers showing the amount of early voters between Obama and McCain show no huge wave for Obama, but actually a dead even race. Even though Gallup’s own national poll models showed a huge lead for Obama, it was not showing up in the early voting.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
It seems like it did in 2004 in FL. A lot of the early polling places in FL are in more urban areas. Not bad areas but spread out. I did it one year but I prefer voting in my own precinct on election day. Also a lot of Repubs do absentee or mails in votes to avoid standing in lines.
All the early voters I’ve actually bumped into were elderly conservatives who didn’t want to (were incapable of) standing in line on election day.
Well the Dems are known for biggest con games in history. Al Gore & global warmings is one. This carbon trading crap will grow and the exchange is in Chicago. If Obama wins it will grow and it is a tax on us and a way for his his Chicago futures/options/CME cronies to get richer.
Global warming has really been changed to climate change because it is getting cooler. Fannie & Freddie were another great Dem con along with CRA.
Generally, I agree with that poster. I don’t know how much difference it would make,
but from a statistical point of view, he is correct.
I think 2 Democrats for every 1 Republican voted early in person in FL in 2004. They would wait in lines for hours. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2004-10-31-fla-voters_x.htm
I wish these polls would make more distinction between early voting, mail-in voting, and absentee ballots.
Rasmussen has been off by a mile this election. I haven’t given any credence to his polls since he flopped so badly in the primaries. Here’s a few examples.
New Hampshire:
Ras: Obama +7.0
Final: Clinton +2.6
California:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +9.6
Texas:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +3.5
Yeah the real chronic Dems run out the first few days to vote in early voting. It seems silly to me to wait in a long line. My local precinct is close by and I get there at 7 am ready to vote. I am going to bring a folding chair this year. I am not old but we have a lot of garbage on the ballott in FL this year.
I will be voting to NOT to retain Welles on the FL Supreme Court. He was a swine who tried to help Gore steal the election in 2000.
“I don’t trust early voting or absentee.”
I’d like to see a Constitutional Amendment severely limiting early/absentee voting. It has become an unwieldy circus and we know the Democrats view that as fertile ground.
Interested. Ras was quite off there. There is hope for us!
Absentee voting is very popular in California. In this election, absentee ballots have already been requested by over 40% of registered voters. That would be about 6 1/2 million people. (Total registered = 16+ million)
Sounds like an excellent plan! Comfort cannot hurt.
Hubby won’t be home till the 1st. We then have to leave at 3 AM on the 2nd. First thing we will do when he gets off the airport... is to drop off our absentee ballots, IN PERSON!
The so-called “secrecy” envelope is so cheap that you can see right through it and see who that person voted for. It is appalling. The ballots have been sitting here for weeks, but I don’t trust the Obrownshirts that lurk at the mailboxes and post office and could easily steam the outer envelope to see if they voted Republican.
NO, this was suppose to be a big part of Obama’s ground game and it’s failing. They predicted 20,000 Democrats would show up for early voting in Ohio, they got 4,000. Ohio, FLorida. Colorado and California proved him wrong too. All these predictions by Obummer just aren’t happening.
The fatal flaw in his weighting strategy is that he has to guess at the correct weights in the first place.
“This year that hasn’t been the case—it’s been pretty even and in some states the Democrats have come out in force (NC and FLA in particular).”
Got a link to that?
Great post - thank you. I have been tring to look at complete polling data when I can and some of it is weird. One thing to note- when the MSM trumpets a commanding lead in one poll, people should look closely at it.
Sorry. I can't bite on unidenfied persons, with unidentified friends, participating in undefined polling by an unidentified polling firm...
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