Green is Barry. ;)
Posted on 10/25/2008 1:45:54 PM PDT by notes2005
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).
During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.
The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.
This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The targets are not set arbitrarily.
Erm ... I believe "staying current with the public mood" is by definition, arbitrary.
Okay I did a little number crunching and this should be somewhat encouraging (I hope).
A more reasonable result will probably be:
Dem: 38
Rep: 36
IND: 26
Assuming 130 Million People vote in the upcoming election:
and according to the most recent modules (and not taking into consideration 3rd Party candidates.
GOP
McCain gets 89% of 36% of the vote or 41,652,000 votes
Obama gets 11% of 36% of the vote or 5,148,000 votes
DEM
McCain gets 17% of 38% of the vote or 8,398,000 votes
Obama gets 83% of the 38% of the vote or 41,002,000 votes
IND
McCain gets 45% of the 26% of the vote or 15,210,000 votes
Obama gets 55% of the 26% of the vote or 18,590,000
Total Votes McCain: 65,260,000
Total Votes Obama: 64,740,000
PUMA’s Deliver McCain the popular vote!
Operation Chaos!
You are correct! He is going to ride it right into the ground by oversampling Dems. We need to remind people the next time they talk about Rasmussen what a scumbag he has become with polling and his methodology. No wonder he was 13 points off in Oklahoma.
Not only that, there are already indications that this ‘big democrat turnout advantage’ is BS.
Gallup just release a study that suggests that there won’t be any historic increase in first time voters. They expect to see that same increase as 2004.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2113275/posts
Additionally, early voting right now is even. There is not a big dem advantage, even though there has been a huge effort by the Obama camp to get their people out to vote early (and probably often).
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2114067/posts
I think that does factor into the equation as well, although I think its impact is far smaller than the ACORN nonsense.
I know. It’s been garbage for months now, and it’s being shown to be garbage. If turnout is within a point either way, Obama’s gonna lose. And I think he will.
About a week ago, Rasmussen was on Hannity and Skeletor blatantly shilling for Obama, explaining and defending his tax plan. What does that tell you about his polling?
I give Rasmussen credit for being open about his methodology. He’s very straightforward about it. So I wouldn’t say he’s a scumbag. I just think for this election he’s dreadfully wrong.
The ‘mood’ as created by the pollsters.
We can’t let them get away with stealing our country.
-—” don’t see why that can’t be right...”-—
Because the biggest turnout gap was 4%, and it has been even or only slightly Dem for many elections now. This suggests a turnout gap favoring Democrats twice the size of any turnout gap in our lifetimes - ever.
That requires both a radical increase in the number of people who identify themselves as Democrats coming out to vote, AND a radial decrease in the number of Republicans coming out to vote.
In 2006 - a year when the GOP got swept and suffered massive losses - the gap margin was +3% Democrats. If the turnout in 2008 is +7.2% Democrats, the race will be called one hour after the polls close on the East coast, the Democrats will pick up 130+ seats in the House and all of the Senate seats in contest, and will win landslide victories in state Houses, Senates, Governorships, and down the ballot. They will have the White House, and will have large Supermajorities in the Senate and House so big that it would take two elections just to bring them down to a simple majority. They will literally have uncontested, totalitarian power over nearly every state, and clearly have it at the national level.
The gaps being used in these polls are getting INSANE.
Sounds like Ras needs to do less campaigning and more tweaking of his methodology.
Also, Operation Chaos caused a big spike in democrat registrations earlier this year, during the primary season.
We all know these people were undercover Republicans.
In addition, many of the PUMAs, who are genuine registered democrats, are telling pollsters they intend to vote for Obama when in reality they are voting for McCain.
Hopefully, the lame stream media is in for a surprise the night of November 4th.
“This is why I don’t trust Rasmussen this year.” ~ notes2005
You’re smart.
Death Threats Sent to Pollster
National Review ^ | 10/24/2008 | Jim Geraghty
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJkOGI1MjZjZDdjYjBmNWRiZTQ2ZDAyMTZhZTI5M2I =
After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.
David Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, shared the messages with National Review Online.
One of the messages stated:
My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!
Another stated:
A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.
A third message stated:
Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.
The company has contacted the FBI and appropriate authorities, Johnson said. There was, thankfully, nothing in the messages that indicated that the sender had actually sought out the location of the company or its employees. Johnson noted that while the messages came from different addresses, they all came within a short period of time, and that it was possible they were from the same person.
Johnson said he’s not fearful, but taking appropriate measures.
“It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this,” Johnson said. “It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”
*
My comment:
Let’s not forget that this is the polling company that in 2007 predicted the McCain/Palin ‘08 Republican ticket, a year before McCain picked his VP running mate:
Strategic Vision Pollster Predicted Palin VP Pick last year
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Pollster_Predicted_Palin_/2008/08/30/126415.html?utm_medium=RSS
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html accurately predicted the presidential nomination of Arizona Senator John McCain in 2007 on POTUS Radio when all political experts had written McCain’s obituary.
Johnson also predicted that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be McCain’s running mate in March 2007.
Johnson reiterated that Palin would be the candidate following Barack Obama’s selection of Joseph Biden as his running mate.
Johnson based his predictions upon polling done by Strategic Vision, LLC in key battleground states and his own political expertise of over twenty years.
“Based upon our polling in key battleground states in 2007 and early 2008, all indicators pointed to John McCain as the only plausible Republican presidential nominee,” said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. “Our polling showed that McCain was the second choice of the other candidate’s supporters particularly in Florida which really made McCain’s nomination possible.
Our polling in 2008 have shown that Barack Obama underperforms among female voters particularly in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that provides an opening for Senator McCain,” continued Johnson.
“Additionally, John McCain has a unique opportunity to present the future of the Republican Party in his vice presidential selection.
All of this indicated a strong dedicated conservative that would be outside of the box and Sarah Palin headed that list along with her appeal to social and fiscal conservatives and her moving life story.
Strategic Vision polling in the key battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and non-traditional battleground states such as New Jersey indicate that 25% to 35% of Hillary Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack Obama and might consider voting for John McCain based upon his running mate.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
He has been wrong for so long I forget when he was right.
My God! These people are going to ensure riots!
That should account for the 14% up for Obama polls. I think Obama will get less than 50%.
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