Posted on 10/25/2008 1:45:54 PM PDT by notes2005
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process (see methodology).
During the final two months of the election season, we are updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. The intensity of a campaign season may cause subtle changes in the partisan landscape as Election Day draws near.
The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.
This week’s adjustment once again shows a trend moving slowly in the Democratic direction. There is a three-tenths-of-a-percentage-point increase in the number of Democrats and a two-tenths-of-a-point decline in the number of Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
He has D +7.2
Ping
When you count all the busloads of homeless and dead people Obama has— that’s probably about right.
I don’t see why that can’t be right...
He’s either detecting an ugly trend foretelling disaster or is about to drive off the cliff like he did in 2000.
It would be historical if it turned out to be +7.2 for dems.
What they don’t get is that while the Democrats are more excited about their candidate than are the Republicans, we are a lot more excited about voting against their candidate then they are about voting against ours.
The ACORN effect.
the biggest differential in modern history was 3/4%. How would it be almost 8% this time?
The pollster for IBD/Tipp (most accurate pollster in 2004 election) is only oversampling dems by a ‘couple of points’. He basically said that anything more than that is laughable.
If you shave 4 or 5 points off of Rasmussen, we have a statistically tied race.
+7 is patently absurd. It's based on thousands and thousands of fraudulent ACORN registrations.
I expect turnout this year to be within a point either way. And that scares Obama and the media to death.
ACORN fake registrations gives the illusion that the Democrat party affiliation has gone up.
I wonder what Scotty will think when these people don’t show up to vote. At least three of the battleground states require voter ID, and these registrations have been thrown out by the thousands. Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck will be no shows.
The are now engaging in a CYA self-fulfilling prophesy and trying to suppress the Republican vote through the minions in the press.
Doesn't matter that the registration data don't suggest that's going to happen.
Also Rasmussen concluded D +7 off of a survey of ADULTS.
Somebody tell me which states Hillary won big? Anyone have a link. I need to poke around.
FL, PA, OH, MI and a few others that are vital states. Obama is going to lose those states. He will probably keep MI.
Rasmussen thinks the Dem base has high intensity. I do not believe it. I think Repubs are ready to crawl over glass. I think a lot of Blue Dog Dems & Hillary Dems are crawling over glass to vote against Obama.
I think it should maybe be 36% Dem and 35% Repub but it could be 50/50 or even 37% Repub and 35% Dem.
I expected Rasmussen to close this gap by now. I was wrong. He’s gonna ride this baby straight into the ground. Which is fine by me.
There is absolutely no empirical evidence to support such a dramatic re-weighting of the electorate.
We are seeing a 2 - 3 point gap between Dem and Rep in the early voting.
When McCain wins a whole set of pollsters who have embraced this completely speculative concept shall have their their credibility shattered.
Scott’s love for Obama is quite apparent. He doesn’t even try to disguise it anymore.
and he was just on FOX spreading his special sauce to tamp down the vote.
The financial debacle is historical. But I'd expect it to show up in the state polls as well. I don't see that. do you? Rasmussen may be right generically but looking at IBD, Obama underperforms the generic and McCain outperforms. By about 2 points each.
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