He has D +7.2
Ping
When you count all the busloads of homeless and dead people Obama has— that’s probably about right.
I don’t see why that can’t be right...
What they don’t get is that while the Democrats are more excited about their candidate than are the Republicans, we are a lot more excited about voting against their candidate then they are about voting against ours.
The ACORN effect.
the biggest differential in modern history was 3/4%. How would it be almost 8% this time?
ACORN fake registrations gives the illusion that the Democrat party affiliation has gone up.
I wonder what Scotty will think when these people don’t show up to vote. At least three of the battleground states require voter ID, and these registrations have been thrown out by the thousands. Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck will be no shows.
The are now engaging in a CYA self-fulfilling prophesy and trying to suppress the Republican vote through the minions in the press.
I expected Rasmussen to close this gap by now. I was wrong. He’s gonna ride this baby straight into the ground. Which is fine by me.
The targets are not set arbitrarily.
Erm ... I believe "staying current with the public mood" is by definition, arbitrary.
The ‘mood’ as created by the pollsters.
We can’t let them get away with stealing our country.
“This is why I don’t trust Rasmussen this year.” ~ notes2005
You’re smart.
Death Threats Sent to Pollster
National Review ^ | 10/24/2008 | Jim Geraghty
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MWJkOGI1MjZjZDdjYjBmNWRiZTQ2ZDAyMTZhZTI5M2I =
After releasing this morning’s numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company’s web site.
David Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, shared the messages with National Review Online.
One of the messages stated:
My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!
Another stated:
A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.
A third message stated:
Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.
The company has contacted the FBI and appropriate authorities, Johnson said. There was, thankfully, nothing in the messages that indicated that the sender had actually sought out the location of the company or its employees. Johnson noted that while the messages came from different addresses, they all came within a short period of time, and that it was possible they were from the same person.
Johnson said he’s not fearful, but taking appropriate measures.
“It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this,” Johnson said. “It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”
*
My comment:
Let’s not forget that this is the polling company that in 2007 predicted the McCain/Palin ‘08 Republican ticket, a year before McCain picked his VP running mate:
Strategic Vision Pollster Predicted Palin VP Pick last year
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Pollster_Predicted_Palin_/2008/08/30/126415.html?utm_medium=RSS
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC http://www.strategicvision.biz/home.html accurately predicted the presidential nomination of Arizona Senator John McCain in 2007 on POTUS Radio when all political experts had written McCain’s obituary.
Johnson also predicted that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be McCain’s running mate in March 2007.
Johnson reiterated that Palin would be the candidate following Barack Obama’s selection of Joseph Biden as his running mate.
Johnson based his predictions upon polling done by Strategic Vision, LLC in key battleground states and his own political expertise of over twenty years.
“Based upon our polling in key battleground states in 2007 and early 2008, all indicators pointed to John McCain as the only plausible Republican presidential nominee,” said David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, LLC. “Our polling showed that McCain was the second choice of the other candidate’s supporters particularly in Florida which really made McCain’s nomination possible.
Our polling in 2008 have shown that Barack Obama underperforms among female voters particularly in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that provides an opening for Senator McCain,” continued Johnson.
“Additionally, John McCain has a unique opportunity to present the future of the Republican Party in his vice presidential selection.
All of this indicated a strong dedicated conservative that would be outside of the box and Sarah Palin headed that list along with her appeal to social and fiscal conservatives and her moving life story.
Strategic Vision polling in the key battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and non-traditional battleground states such as New Jersey indicate that 25% to 35% of Hillary Clinton supporters will not vote for Barack Obama and might consider voting for John McCain based upon his running mate.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
My God! These people are going to ensure riots!
That should account for the 14% up for Obama polls. I think Obama will get less than 50%.
updating these targets on a weekly basis to stay current with the public mood.
***Bull Shiite. It’s to SHAPE the public mood. If all these polling companies were genuinely serious about generating unbiased, useful information, they’d send in their RAW data into a central collecting source which would compute the results and we could all have access to the data itself. So if we think it should be 35% Republican and 38% Democrat, we’d see what that generates in terms of the raw data.
But these companies don’t do that because their real interest is in shaping the election rather than reporting on it.
So he polls so low with repubs to skew the polls to favor dems.
IBD poll was on the money in 2004 and they have it as a 2-4 race.
I am the one who reported very few campaign signs on lawns or cars this time around; still very true here. Still puzzled by the lack of obvious enthusiasm, contrasted with the serious an strong desire to vote, a bit of a paradox. Hoping against hope for a pleasant surprise from my fellow Iowans despite all the polls.
Well them Mr RAS you ought to put out TWO results
The second one with a projection of an equal turnout